College Football Week 5 Rankings & Projections: Behold THE New No. 1 Team (2019)

September 23, 2019 - by Jason Lisk

Brutus the Buckeyes is a big fan of THE TeamRankings predictive ratings. (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 5 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

College Football Week 5 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 5

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Week 4 Result
28	Iowa State	Big 12	8.0	6.4	6.8	W vs. LA Monroe 72-20
112	Kent State	MAC	-14.5	5.1	4.9	W vs. Bowling Grn 62-20
115	Central Mich	MAC	-15.4	4.6	5.3	L at Miami (FL) 17-12
92	Buffalo	MAC	-8.2	4.5	7.1	W vs. Temple 38-22
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	34.1	4.3	11.3	W vs. Miami (OH) 76-5
96	UAB	CUSA	-9.3	4.0	8.1	W vs. S Alabama 35-3
121	Old Dominion	CUSA	-17.4	3.9	4.4	L at Virginia 28-17
79	North Texas	CUSA	-3.1	3.8	7.3	W vs. TX-San Ant 45-3
114	San Jose St	Mountain West	-15.4	3.7	4.5	W at Arkansas 31-24
99	Liberty	Independent I-A	-9.8	3.2	7.1	W vs. Hampton 62-27
59	UCLA	Pac-12	0.9	3.2	4.5	W at Wash State 67-63
17	Washington	Pac-12	14.4	3.2	8.5	W at BYU 45-19

Iowa State had the biggest jump, crushing Louisiana-Monroe. Three different MAC schools also had impressive results this week. Kent State got a blowout win over Bowling Green, Buffalo upset Temple a week after the Owls beat Maryland, and Central Michigan lost a close game at Miami.

Ohio State, meanwhile, continues to surge. They annihilated Miami of Ohio 76-5 and have now outscored opponents 214 to 36 on the season. The Buckeyes travel to Nebraska this weekend.

UCLA also showed signs of offensive life under head coach Chip Kelly, and came back to beat Washington State 67-63 in one of the wildest games of 2019.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 5

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Week 4 Result
106	LA Monroe	Sun Belt	-12.8	-6.5	4.5	L at Iowa State 72-20
27	Miami (FL)	ACC	8.9	-4.6	7.9	W vs. Central Mich 17-12
67	Temple	AAC	-0.8	-4.6	6.5	L at Buffalo 38-22
127	Bowling Grn	MAC	-28.2	-4.3	2.2	L at Kent State 62-20
126	TX-San Ant	CUSA	-25.5	-4.1	2.5	L at North Texas 45-3
107	Miami (OH)	MAC	-12.8	-3.7	5.0	L at Ohio State 76-5
123	S Alabama	Sun Belt	-20.5	-3.6	2.6	L at UAB 35-3
38	Baylor	Big 12	5.7	-3.4	7.4	W at Rice 21-13
98	Arkansas	SEC	-9.7	-3.3	3.1	L vs. San Jose St 31-24
68	BYU	Independent I-A	-1.0	-3.2	6.8	L vs. Washington 45-19

Pig Shooey! The Arkansas Razorbacks lost at home to San Jose State and have plummeted to No. 98 in our college football power ratings. The schedule doesn’t get very easy after that one, as Arkansas goes back in to conference play in the SEC West. The best chance for a third victory in 2019 may be at home against Western Kentucky on November 9th.

Miami also drops out of the Top 25 after barely closing out a close win over Central Michigan, while Baylor also dropped a bit with a close victory at Rice.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a teams win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	34.1
2	Alabama	SEC	33.1
3	Clemson	ACC	30.5
4	Wisconsin	Big Ten	28.1
5	Georgia	SEC	27.3
6	LSU	SEC	25.0
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	23.6
8	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	21.8
9	Auburn	SEC	21.1
10	Oregon	Pac-12	20.3
11	Penn State	Big Ten	19.1
12	Florida	SEC	18.1
13	Central FL	AAC	17.2
14	Texas A&M	SEC	16.9
15	Michigan St	Big Ten	15.9
16	Texas	Big 12	15.0
17	Washington	Pac-12	14.4
18	Michigan	Big Ten	14.3
19	Maryland	Big Ten	13.9
20	Missouri	SEC	12.4
21	Miss State	SEC	12.2
22	Iowa	Big Ten	11.8
23	USC	Pac-12	11.1
24	Utah	Pac-12	11.0
25	Wash State	Pac-12	10.2

We have a new No. 1 team in our ratings this week. Entering the season, our preseason CFB ratings saw a two-team race at the top, but with Ohio State’s dominant start it looks like there are now three top contenders for the national title. If that’s still the case at the end of the season, and Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama all make the CFP, only one of them will face a non-top 3 opponent in the CFP semifinal — and therefore get a nice boost in national championship odds. Ohio State, by the way, sits at No. 5 in the current AP Poll.

California is ranked No. 15 in the AP Poll, but does not appear in these rankings, and are all the way down at No. 54 in our rankings. The Golden Bears got a close upset win over Washington, and are coming off another close, and controversial, win at Ole Miss. They also beat UC-Davis and North Texas by a combined margin of only 20 points. So at this point, our ratings think see California’s win-loss record as overstating its actual performance level — good but not as good as the human voters think. For some independent supporting evidence, consider that California is only a 4.5-point favorite in the betting markets at home this week over unranked Arizona State.

Other teams that are ranked in the AP Poll but do not make our list are Boise State (No. 16 in AP, No. 29 in TR), Virginia (No. 18 in AP, No. 37 in TR), and Kansas State (No. 24 in AP, No. 33 in TR).

CFB Week 5 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	Favorite	Odds to Win	2nd Favorite	Odds to Win	3rd Favorite	Odds to Win
ACC	Clemson	91%	Miami-FL	3%	Virginia	3%
Big 12	Oklahoma	62%	Texas	20%	Oklahoma St	4%
Big Ten	Ohio State	57%	Wisconsin	35%	Penn State	3%
Pac-12	Oregon	54%	USC	18%	Washington	12%
SEC	Alabama	46%	Georgia	33%	LSU	10%
AAC	Central Florida	56%	Memphis	13%	Cincinnati	9%
C USA	Florida Atlantic	25%	Marshall	23%	Southern Miss	18%
MAC	Western Michigan	26%	Toledo	24%	Ohio	19%
MWC	Boise State	43%	Utah State	25%	Fresno State	11%
Sun Belt	La Lafayette	45%	Appalachian St	33%	Arkansas State	9%

Oregon saw their odds to win the Pac-12 increase thanks to both their win over Stanford, and Washington State’s loss to UCLA. USC, meanwhile, got a big Pac-12 South win over Utah and are the only 2-0 team in the division.

Ohio State’s odds in the Big Ten continue to climb, and it looks like a two-team showdown is coming between the Buckeyes and Wisconsin for the conference title.

Appalachian State got the win at North Carolina, but Louisiana-Lafayette moved to the top of our projections to win the Sun Belt with an impressive road win at Ohio.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Bowl Eligible	Bowl Eligible Change	Result
92	Buffalo	MAC	-8.2	85%	38%	W vs. Temple 38-22
28	Iowa State	Big 12	8.0	77%	35%	W vs. LA Monroe 72-20
45	Pittsburgh	ACC	4.0	84%	24%	W vs. Central FL 35-34
54	California	Pac-12	2.2	86%	23%	W at Mississippi 28-20
53	Syracuse	ACC	2.7	77%	21%	W vs. W Michigan 52-33
115	Central Mich	MAC	-15.4	44%	21%	L at Miami (FL) 17-12
112	Kent State	MAC	-14.5	32%	20%	W vs. Bowling Grn 62-20
59	UCLA	Pac-12	0.9	27%	20%	W at Wash State 67-63
56	Colorado	Pac-12	1.7	52%	19%	W at Arizona St 34-31
114	San Jose St	Mountain West	-15.4	24%	17%	W at Arkansas 31-24

Buffalo’s upset of Temple has them in great shape to claim a bowl spot out of the MAC. UCLA and Colorado both got big road wins that dramatically improved their chances of getting to six wins and a likely bowl berth. Colorado is now about a toss-up to get there, while UCLA’s hopes went from slim to “at least there’s a realistic chance.”

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

Rank	Team	Conference	1 or 0 Losses
3	Clemson	ACC	97%
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	83%
2	Alabama	SEC	79%
4	Wisconsin	Big Ten	70%
5	Georgia	SEC	68%
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	67%
29	Boise State	Mountain West	59%
6	LSU	SEC	40%
13	Central FL	AAC	36%
8	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	33%
46	App State	Sun Belt	27%
31	Memphis	AAC	25%
10	Oregon	Pac-12	25%
36	LA Lafayette	Sun Belt	25%
35	S Methodist	AAC	22%

The main question with Clemson is whether can they avoid a loss against a weaker ACC schedule, but they are a virtual lock to get to 11 wins before the ACC title game. Ohio State is now slightly more likely than Alabama to be 11-1 or better, but both are around 80% to get to that mark. Wisconsin and Georgia also got big wins that improved their odds.

Meanwhile, UCF’s loss to Pittsburgh opens the door among the non-Power-Five teams and now Boise State is most likely to claim a BCS bowl berth, though you should not count out UCF.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 5, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 5 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.