College Football Week 3 Rankings & Projections: Maryland Surges Into Top 20 (2019)

September 10, 2019 - by Jason Lisk

Maryland crushed Syracuse and is rising in our ratings (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest College Football rankings and season predictions changes heading into Week 3 of the college football season.

Last week featured only two games between ranked teams (Clemson-Texas A&M and Texas-LSU). It did, though, have its share of upsets and blowouts.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

College Football Week 3 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 3

School	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Wins Change	Result
Oregon	Pac-12	23.2	9.1	9.7	1.6	W vs. Nevada 77-6
Maryland	Big Ten	16.8	7.1	8.6	1.9	W vs. Syracuse 63-20
Kansas St	Big 12	5.3	6.6	7.2	1.4	W vs. Bowling Green 52-0
Arkansas St	Sun Belt	0.9	4.9	8.0	1.3	W vs. UNLV 43-17
San Diego St	Mountain West	-3.1	4.6	8.2	2.1	W at UCLA 23-14
Baylor	Big 12	9.1	4.3	8.6	0.8	W vs. UTSA 63-14
LA Monroe	Sun Belt	-6.6	4.3	5.9	0.9	L at Florida State 45-44
Central FL	AAC	18.5	4.2	10.8	1.1	W at Florida Atlantic 48-14
S Carolina	SEC	10.9	4.2	5.7	1.0	W vs. Charleston Southern 72-10
Utah State	Mountain West	3.9	4.1	7.2	0.8	W vs. Stony Brook 62-7

Oregon bounced back from its tough opening loss to Auburn by destroying Nevada, who were coming off a last-second upset of Purdue a week earlier. That move launched Oregon to the top of this week’s ratings increases.

Maryland is surging early under new head coach Michael Locksley. The Terrapins have scored 142 points in the first two games of the season, and annihilated formerly-ranked Syracuse by 43 points in Week 2. That blowout win has Maryland now at No. 16 in our college football rankings, just ahead of another Big Ten East school, Michigan.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 3

School	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Wins Change	Result
UNLV	Mountain West	-14	-4.3	3.9	-1.1	L at Arkansas State 43-17
TX-San Ant	CUSA	-21.8	-4.3	3.5	-0.9	L at Baylor 63-14
Michigan	Big Ten	16.4	-4.7	7.5	-1.3	W vs. Army 24-21 (OT)
Arizona St	Pac-12	-1.1	-4.9	5.2	-1.2	W vs. Sacramento State 19-7
UCLA	Pac-12	-0.3	-5.8	3.7	-1.9	L vs. San Diego State 23-14
U Mass	Independent I-A	-32.4	-5.8	1.4	-1.5	L vs. Southern Illinois 45-20
Cincinnati	AAC	2.5	-5.9	6.9	-1.4	L at Ohio State 42-0
Bowling Grn	MAC	-20.9	-6.6	4.0	-1.2	L at Kansas State 52-0
Syracuse	ACC	1.3	-7.4	6.1	-1.7	L at Maryland 63-20
Nevada	Mountain West	-13.1	-8.6	5.5	-1.8	L at Oregon 77-6

The aforementioned Michigan Wolverines are among the biggest decliners entering Week 3, after needing overtime to beat Army at home. Meanwhile, UCLA dropped to 0-2 in Chip Kelly’s second season, losing at home to San Diego State.

UMass was already ranked No. 130 in our 2019 college football ratings (as in, dead last) entering Week 2. They will go to Week 3 rated nearly six points below the No. 129 team, UTEP, after losing by 25 points to FCS team Southern Illinois.

CFB Week 3 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	Favorite	% Chance	2nd Favorite	% Chance	3rd Favorite	% Chance
ACC	Clemson	81%	Miami-FL	5%	Virginia	4%
BIG 12	Oklahoma	50%	Texas	21%	Baylor	10%
BIG TEN	Wisconsin	40%	Ohio State	28%	Penn State	9%
PAC 12	Oregon	51%	Utah	18%	USC	16%
SEC	Alabama	43%	Georgia	26%	LSU	14%
AMERICAN	UCF	61%	Memphis	11%	SMU	7%
MWC	Boise State	36%	Fresno State	20%	Utah State	15%
CONF USA	Marshall	30%	Southern Miss	21%	Florida Atlantic	16%
MAC	Ohio	18%	Toledo	17%	Western Michigan	16%
SUN BELT	Appalachian State	32%	Arkansas State	28%	Troy	14%

The biggest shift since the preseason among the Power Five Conferences has come in the Big Ten, where Wisconsin is now the favorite. Michigan’s unimpressive start has taken them from being the preseason conference winner favorite in our 2019 college football preseason predictions to not even in the top three in the conference.

Oregon, meanwhile, may have lost in a big non-conference matchup to Auburn two weeks ago, but they are now the favorite to win the Pac-12. The combination of their big win in Week 2 plus other teams in the conference faltering (particularly Washington) boosted their conference champion odds dramatically.

Biggest Increases in Bowl Eligibility Odds

Team	Conference	Bowl Eligibility Odds	Bowl Eligibility Change
California	Pac-12	58%	37%
San Diego St	Mountain West	91%	31%
Kansas St	Big 12	82%	27%
Maryland	Big Ten	95%	25%
N Carolina	ACC	88%	24%
Colorado	Pac-12	54%	23%
S Carolina	SEC	54%	22%
Arkansas St	Sun Belt	93%	20%
LA Monroe	Sun Belt	58%	19%
USC	Pac-12	95%	17%

California’s bowl eligibility odds took a big leap with an upset win at Washington. The Golden Bears are now projected to win 5.9 games in our college football standings projections, with a tough schedule still ahead (Oregon, Washington State, Utah, and USC).

Colorado (win over No. 25 Nebraska), South Carolina (72-10 win over Charleston Southern), and Louisiana-Monroe (close 45-44 loss at Florida State) also saw their bowl eligibility odds rise above 50% with last week’s results.

Biggest Decreases in Bowl Eligibility Odds

Team	Conference	Bowl Eligibility Odds	Bowl Eligibility Change
UCLA	Pac-12	15%	-37%
Nevada	Mountain West	50%	-33%
Florida Intl	CUSA	43%	-26%
Arizona St	Pac-12	41%	-26%
Tennessee	SEC	10%	-25%
Syracuse	ACC	63%	-24%
Bowling Grn	MAC	17%	-24%
UNLV	Mountain West	17%	-22%
Stanford	Pac-12	60%	-21%
Washington	Pac-12	71%	-20%

UCLA and Tennessee have both started 0-2 and their 2019 bowl chances have taken a nosedive as a result. On the other hand, Arizona State is 2-0, but the Sun Devils’ bowl odds also dropped thanks to a less-than-impressive 19-7 win over FCS Sacramento State.

Stanford and Syracuse also suffered blowout losses that lowered their season outlook.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

Team	Conference	11-1 or Better
Clemson	ACC	90%
Alabama	SEC	69%
Central FL	AAC	65%
Wisconsin	Big Ten	53%
Oklahoma	Big 12	53%
Georgia	SEC	48%
Boise State	Mountain West	46%
Ohio State	Big Ten	42%
LSU	SEC	39%
Utah	Pac-12	36%
Oregon	Pac-12	30%
Notre Dame	Independent I-A	28%

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups will certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better.

(No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings.)

Heading into Week 3, Clemson and Alabama, unsurprisingly, top the list of the most likely contenders to get to 11 wins, while Central Florida has the best chance of the teams outside the Power Five.

Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Georgia each have around a 50% chance of getting to 11 wins before a conference title game. After Notre Dame, no other Power Five team has above a 20% chance of getting to 11 wins.

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