Oregon and Utah on Pac-12 Collision Course — College Football Rankings & Projections Update (2019)

Tyler Huntley and the Utah Utes took the lead in the Pac-12 South Division and now are projected to reach the title game (Photo by Michael Workman/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 10 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

College Football Week 11 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 11

RankTeamConferenceRatingRating ChangeTotal WinsTotal Wins ChangeResult
104Central MichMAC-10.83.46.90.8W vs. N Illinois 48-10
65Boston ColACC-1.12.95.90.9W at Syracuse 58-27
84BuffaloMAC-5.62.77.30.7W at E Michigan 43-14
68VA TechACC-1.72.76.70.2L at Notre Dame 21-20
54BYUIndependent I-A2.22.57.40.7W at Utah State 42-14
69Oregon StPac-12-1.92.24.80.8W at Arizona 56-38
39Miami (FL)ACC6.82.17.20.7W at Florida St 27-10
10OregonPac-1221.12.110.80.5W at USC 56-24
87GA SouthernSun Belt-5.92.17.41.1W at App State 24-21
47Wake ForestACC3.72.08.80.5W vs. NC State 44-10

Four ACC teams make our biggest ratings improvement list this week. Boston College destroyed Syracuse, Miami has rebounded from some disappointing results and got a big win over rival Florida State (which led to the school firing head coach Willie Taggart), and Wake Forest continued their impressive season with a blowout victory over NC State. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech lost a close game at Notre Dame when they gave up a late touchdown drive, but for a consolation prize, they are the only team to make this list with a loss.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 11

RankTeamConferenceRatingRating ChangeTotal WinsTotal Wins ChangeResult
105N IllinoisMAC-10.9-3.64.4-0.8L at Central Mich 48-10
83SyracuseACC-5.4-3.43.8-1.0L vs. Boston Col 58-27
70Utah StateMountain West-2.7-2.76.2-0.8L vs. BYU 42-14
26USCPac-129.6-2.57.0-0.6L vs. Oregon 56-24
74ArizonaPac-12-3.6-2.44.3-0.8L vs. Oregon St 56-38
79NC StateACC-5.2-2.35.3-0.5L at Wake Forest 44-10
111E MichiganMAC-13.4-2.25.9-0.5L vs. Buffalo 43-14
55Florida StACC2.0-2.15.6-0.7L vs. Miami (FL) 27-10
67NorthwesternBig Ten-1.6-2.13.2-0.4L at Indiana 34-3
40App StateSun Belt6.3-2.09.9-1.0L vs. GA Southern 24-21

Appalachian State suffered their first loss of the season to Georgia Southern. USC and Arizona lost to the Oregon schools and are moving the wrong direction in the college football ratings. Northwestern is in an offensive funk, and did not break out of it against Indiana, managing only 3 points. The Wildcats have only one win on the year, a season after they appeared in the Big Ten title game.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a team’s win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

RankTeamConferenceRating
1Ohio StateBig Ten40.0
2AlabamaSEC31.2
3ClemsonACC28.2
4Penn StateBig Ten26.5
5LSUSEC25.9
6WisconsinBig Ten25.0
7GeorgiaSEC23.6
8OklahomaBig 1222.3
9AuburnSEC21.7
10OregonPac-1221.1
11MichiganBig Ten20.8
12UtahPac-1219.5
13FloridaSEC18.4
14Central FLAAC15.8
15IowaBig Ten15.0
16Notre DameIndependent I-A14.9
17WashingtonPac-1214.0
18Texas A&MSEC13.1
19Michigan StBig Ten12.1
20Iowa StateBig 1211.4
21MinnesotaBig Ten10.8
22Wash StatePac-1210.8
23TexasBig 1210.7
24CincinnatiAAC9.9
25MemphisAAC9.7

There was not much movement at the top of our ratings as, well, most of the top teams were on a bye last week. Georgia, Oregon, and Utah did get big wins. Memphis jumped into the rankings with a victory over SMU. Baylor, on the other hand, is undefeated but dropped in our ratings after managing a three-point win at home over West Virginia.

CFB Week 11 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference1st FavoriteOdds to Win2nd FavoriteOdds to Win3rd FavoriteOdds to Win
ACCClemson93%Virginia6%Wake Forest0%
Big 12Oklahoma67%Baylor17%Texas6%
Big TenOhio State79%Wisconsin11%Penn State8%
Pac 12Oregon55%Utah43%USC2%
SECAlabama51%Georgia30%LSU17%
AACCincinnati44%Memphis23%Navy16%
C USAFla Atlantic36%Marshall25%La Tech24%
MACOhio32%Western Michigan23%Ball State22%
MWCBoise State64%San Diego St19%Fresno State7%
Sun BeltLa Lafayette55%Appalachian St36%Ga Southern6%

Oregon and Utah got big road wins over USC and Washington, respectively. Those were the last major hurdles to what should be a showdown between the two in the Pac-12 title game. USC now has only a 2% chance of winning the title, and Oregon and Utah are the clear favorites.

In the ACC, we’ve finally done it. Only two teams have greater than a 0.5% chance of winning the conference (Wake Forest is technically third at 0.4% to win the ACC).

Appalachian State’s upset loss to Georgia Southern has flipped the Sun Belt, and Louisiana-Lafayette is now a slight favorite over Appalachian State to win the conference. Memphis moved up in the American Conference odds with their big victory over previously undefeated SMU, who drop out of our top three projected conference champs.

Finally, Georgia saw their SEC odds improve by 10% thanks to the win over Florida.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have their eligibility decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

RankTeamConferenceBowl EligibleBowl Eligible ChangeResult
65Boston ColACC67%40%W at Syracuse 58-27
115CharlotteCUSA61%28%W vs. Middle Tenn 34-20
104Central MichMAC100%28%W vs. N Illinois 48-10
87GA SouthernSun Belt97%23%W at App State 24-21
120NevadaMountain West55%22%W vs. New Mexico 21-10
72Fresno StMountain West87%22%W at Hawaii 41-38
34Miss StateSEC75%19%W at Arkansas 54-24
39Miami (FL)ACC98%15%W at Florida St 27-10
106Coastal CarSun Belt55%14%W vs. Troy 36-35
84BuffaloMAC99%11%W at E Michigan 43-14

Boston College made the biggest leap with the win over Syracuse, thanks to both the victory and the corresponding increase in their predictive rating.

Four teams virtually (or actually) locked up a bowl bid with big wins last week. Central Michigan became the first bowl eligible team out of the MAC when they beat Northern Illinois. Buffalo will likely join them after getting a key win to get to 5-4. Georgia Southern got the big conference win over Appalachian State, and now need only one more win to get to their sixth for the year. Miami also moved to 5-4 with their win over Florida State.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

RankTeamConference1 or 0 Losses
3ClemsonACC99%
1Ohio StateBig Ten98%
2AlabamaSEC86%
5LSUSEC85%
12UtahPac-1283%
10OregonPac-1280%
4Penn StateBig Ten77%
37Boise StateMountain West52%
8OklahomaBig 1246%
7GeorgiaSEC36%
28BaylorBig 1233%
25MemphisAAC31%
24CincinnatiAAC30%
35S MethodistAAC25%
40App StateSun Belt24%

The biggest movers here are Oregon and Utah. They were both under 50% to get to 11-1 entering last week, but those key wins now make them the 5th and 6th most likely teams to finish at 11 wins before the conference title games. The Pac-12 now has serious aspirations of sending its champion to the BCS playoffs.

Appalachian State’s loss really opens the door for other teams to claim the top bowl bid from the Group of Five teams. Now, the most likely candidates are Boise State or the winner of the American Conference.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 11, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 11 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.