Big 12 Shakeup and Minnesota Rising — College Football Rankings & Projections Update (2019)

October 29, 2019 - by Jason Lisk

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 10 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

College Football Week 10 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 10

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
92	Middle Tenn	CUSA	-7.8	3.5	5.8	0.8	W vs. Florida Intl 50-17
10	Michigan	Big Ten	19.8	3.5	8.5	0.8	W vs. Notre Dame 45-14
23	Minnesota	Big Ten	10.8	3.3	9.4	0.6	W vs. Maryland 52-10
66	Illinois	Big Ten	-0.8	3.0	5.7	0.9	W at Purdue 24-6
15	Central FL	AAC	16.2	3.0	9.4	0.4	W at Temple 63-21
56	Fla Atlantic	CUSA	1.5	2.8	8.3	0.4	W at Old Dominion 41-3
91	N Illinois	MAC	-7.3	2.5	5.2	0.3	W vs. Akron 49-0
47	Tennessee	SEC	3.6	2.5	5.4	0.9	W vs. S Carolina 41-21
39	Kansas St	Big 12	6.0	2.5	7.9	1.3	W vs. Oklahoma 48-41
109	Colorado St	Mountain West	-12.7	2.4	4.1	1.0	W at Fresno St 41-31

Three Big 10 teams were among the biggest movers this week. Michigan’s big win over Notre Dame improved their overall rating by over three points, the Minnesota Golden Gophers remained undefeated with a blowout victory over Maryland, and Illinois followed up their win over Wisconsin with another one against Purdue.

Kansas State had the biggest result of the week, even if they weren’t the biggest ratings mover, when they jumped on Oklahoma with a big 3rd quarter surge and then held on for the upset.

Tennessee, meanwhile, has rallied after a rough start to the season and got their third victory of the year.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 10

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
14	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	16.9	-3.3	9.3	-0.7	L at Michigan 45-14
78	Temple	AAC	-4.2	-3.3	6.8	-0.6	L vs. Central FL 63-21
60	Maryland	Big Ten	0.3	-3.3	3.8	-0.6	L at Minnesota 52-10
34	Missouri	SEC	7.7	-3.0	6.9	-0.9	L at Kentucky 29-7
108	Florida Intl	CUSA	-12.6	-2.9	5.3	-0.7	L at Middle Tenn 50-17
115	E Carolina	AAC	-15.3	-2.5	4.0	-0.7	L vs. S Florida 45-20
73	Fresno St	Mountain West	-3.2	-2.5	5.9	-1.2	L vs. Colorado St 41-31
124	Old Dominion	CUSA	-22.4	-2.4	2.4	-0.4	L vs. Fla Atlantic 41-3
33	S Carolina	SEC	7.8	-2.3	4.8	-0.9	L at Tennessee 41-21
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	22.1	-2.3	10.2	-1.1	L at Kansas St 48-41

Missouri has had a weird season, and lost their third game this year as a double-digit betting favorite in blowout fashion at Kentucky (also losses to Wyoming and Vanderbilt).

Notre Dame was eliminated from college football playoff contention with the loss to Michigan, and Oklahoma also suffered a defeat at Kansas State among teams that entered Week 9 inside our Top 10 rankings.

Remember when Temple upset undefeated and ranked Maryland? Now both are plummeting in our rankings and outside the Top 50 after big blowout defeats.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a team’s win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	40.3
2	Alabama	SEC	31.1
3	Clemson	ACC	29.7
4	Penn State	Big Ten	26.3
5	LSU	SEC	26.0
6	Wisconsin	Big Ten	24.8
7	Georgia	SEC	23.6
8	Auburn	SEC	23.2
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	22.1
10	Michigan	Big Ten	19.8
11	Utah	Pac-12	19.3
12	Oregon	Pac-12	19.0
13	Florida	SEC	18.5
14	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	16.9
15	Central FL	AAC	16.2
16	Iowa	Big Ten	15.3
17	Washington	Pac-12	14.3
18	Texas A&M	SEC	14.2
19	Michigan St	Big Ten	12.2
20	USC	Pac-12	12.1
21	Cincinnati	AAC	11.7
22	Iowa State	Big 12	11.5
23	Minnesota	Big Ten	10.8
24	Texas	Big 12	10.7
25	Wash State	Pac-12	10.5

This is going to sound like a broken record, but Ohio State is again separating from the pack after yet another dominant win over a good program after beating Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are still only No. 3 in the AP Poll but could be putting up one of the most dominant seasons in recent college football history.

Minnesota, still undefeated, moves into our Top 25 with the big win over Maryland. Notre Dame drops out of the Top 10, and Michigan moves into it, after the Wolverines won convincingly.

CFB Week 10 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	1st Favorite	Odds to Win	2nd Favorite	Odds to Win	3rd Favorite	Odds to Win
ACC	Clemson	95%	Virginia	3%	No Carolina	2%
Big 12	Oklahoma	66%	Baylor	20%	Iowa State	5%
Big Ten	Ohio State	81%	Wisconsin	10%	Penn State	7%
Pac 12	Oregon	55%	Utah	29%	USC	15%
SEC	Alabama	53%	Georgia	20%	LSU	18%
AAC	Cincinnati	51%	SMU	15%	Memphis	14%
C USA	Fla Atlantic	31%	La Tech	25%	Marshall	21%
MAC	Ohio	31%	Ball State	26%	Western Michigan	19%
MWC	Boise State	61%	San Diego St	15%	Air Force	11%
Sun Belt	Appalachian St	56%	La Lafayette	41%	Georgia St	1%

Oklahoma’s college football playoff hopes took a hit with the loss at Kansas State, but their chances of winning the Big 12 did not drop all that much, because both Iowa State and Texas also lost. In terms of winning the title, it doesn’t matter if they finish 1st or 2nd in the regular season, and we project them to be the favorite over Baylor or anyone else if they reach the title game.

It’s a big weekend in the Pac-12 with Oregon going to USC and Utah traveling to Washington. If both of the conference leaders can win on the road it will set up a showdown in the Pac-12 title game. USC can throw a major wrench in that plan if they beat Oregon, because they also then hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Utah in the Pac-12 South.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have their eligibility decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

Rank	Team	Conference	Bowl Eligible	Bowl Eligible Change	Result
66	Illinois	Big Ten	61%	43%	W at Purdue 24-6
92	Middle Tenn	CUSA	66%	31%	W vs. Florida Intl 50-17
101	Miami (OH)	MAC	95%	29%	W at Kent State 23-16
47	Tennessee	SEC	45%	28%	W vs. S Carolina 41-21
64	Louisville	ACC	88%	25%	W vs. Virginia 28-21
107	San Jose St	Mountain West	31%	23%	W at Army 34-29
29	TX Christian	Big 12	86%	21%	W vs. Texas 37-27
44	Miami (FL)	ACC	83%	21%	W at Pittsburgh 16-12
84	Ohio	MAC	96%	20%	W at Ball State 34-21
45	Kentucky	SEC	96%	18%	W vs. Missouri 29-7

Illinois went from an extreme longshot to get to 6-6 just a couple of weeks ago to now a favorite to do so after getting to 4-4. They get Rutgers next week, and if they can get the win over the worst team in the conference, would then need one more in the last three weeks.

Tennessee fans can now entertain some bowl hopes after beating South Carolina. They still need to win three of the last four games, but the schedule is such that it is possible. They close with UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri, and home against Vanderbilt.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

Rank	Team	Conference	1 or 0 Losses
3	Clemson	ACC	99%
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	98%
2	Alabama	SEC	86%
5	LSU	SEC	85%
4	Penn State	Big Ten	77%
30	App State	Sun Belt	75%
35	S Methodist	AAC	46%
28	Boise State	Mountain West	46%
12	Oregon	Pac-12	45%
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	44%
11	Utah	Pac-12	44%
26	Baylor	Big 12	36%
21	Cincinnati	AAC	35%
13	Florida	SEC	23%
7	Georgia	SEC	22%

The upcoming Ohio State-Penn State and LSU-Alabama games are going to be huge matchups that look like they will decide who will advance to the title games in the Big 10 and SEC, respectively. Don’t rule out that the losers of those games could also be in the college football playoff mix as well.

After those four (plus Clemson), we do not project any other Power Five schools to have over a 50% chance of finishing at 11-1, after Oklahoma’s loss. However, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oregon, and Utah all have a shot and if any of those teams can win out they will be in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, this week’s World’s Largest Cocktail Party between Georgia and Florida looks like an elimination game when it comes to playoff hopes for those two teams.

Outside the Power Five, there is going to be a close race to see who gets the automatic berth into the Cotton Bowl. Right now, Appalachian State, Boise State, Cincinnati, and SMU are the most likely candidates.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 10, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 10 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.

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