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College Football Preseason Predictions 2019: Every Conference, Every Team
August 23, 2019 - by David Hess
2019, same as 2018? Clemson and Alabama are in front of the pack in our 2019 college football preseason predictions, which should shock absolutely no one.
Of course, the odds are still decent that at least one of those two expected juggernauts stumbles this season. If that happens, our 2019 preseason predictions offer insight into which teams are most likely to pounce.
Read on for our 2019 projections for all 130 FBS teams, from win totals to conference champion odds.
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College Football Preseason Predictions Menu
Quick Links to 2019 Predictions By Conference:
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
All other conferences
About Our College Football Preseason Predictions:
How do we come up with these predictions?
Exactly what do these numbers mean?
Why does our approach make sense?
2019 Preseason Predictions Highlights: Conference Champion Odds
To kick things off, here are the three most likely teams to win each FBS conference according to our preseason predictions, along with each team’s conference champion odds:
| Conferences | Favorite | % Chance | 2nd Favorite | % Chance | 3rd Favorite | % Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Clemson | 71.7% | Miami-FL | 8.8% | Virginia Tech | 5.0% |
| Big 12 | Oklahoma | 48.4% | Texas | 18.8% | Iowa State | 9.2% |
| Big Ten | Michigan | 34.2% | Ohio State | 21.7% | Penn State | 7.3% |
| Pac 12 | Washington | 22.3% | Utah | 20.6% | Oregon | 16.1% |
| SEC | Alabama | 36.7% | Georgia | 32.7% | Florida | 8.2% |
| American | UCF | 26.5% | Memphis | 22.3% | Cincinnati | 16.2% |
| Conference USA | Southern Miss | 17.5% | Florida Atlantic | 16.4% | Marshall | 16.2% |
| Mid-American | Ohio | 22.4% | Western Michigan | 20.2% | Toledo | 14.7% |
| Mountain West | Boise State | 40.7% | Fresno State | 14.1% | San Diego State | 11.4% |
| Sun Belt | Appalachian State | 36.3% | Arkansas State | 22.8% | Troy | 13.0% |
Across all FBS conferences this year, the team with best chance to win its conference is Clemson to win the ACC with 72% odds. Maybe the ACC will eventually produce an opponent somewhere near Clemson’s level, but 2019 doesn’t look like the year.
On the other end of the parity spectrum, Conference USA looks to have incredible balance this season.
Four C-USA teams (Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, Marshall, and North Texas) all have conference title odds between 14% and 18%. Another two teams (Louisiana Tech and Florida International) have 9% title odds, and still a few more have more than a nominal chance.
The Impact of Schedule Strength On Conference Champion Odds
Note that the inclusion or order of teams in the table above may not exactly reflect how good we think they will be in 2019. In some cases, the best team in a conference may not have the best chance to win the league title.
Why? Because schedule strength can have a major impact on a team’s conference championship odds.
For example, Auburn is No. 11 in our preseason rankings, but half of Auburn’s 2019 opponents rank in the top 15 of our preseason rankings. The Tigers play a tough SEC West slate (including TR No. 2 Alabama and No. 6 LSU), plus No. 3 Georgia in the traditional East-West crossover game and No. 15 Oregon in the season opener.
Add it all up, and we give Auburn just a 4% chance to win the SEC this year. In contrast, No. 12 Washington has a 22% chance to win its conference, the Pac-12, thanks to a weaker schedule.
Washington is also more than eight times as likely as Auburn to make it through the 2019 season undefeated.
Preseason Rankings & In-Season Projections Updates
A few final reminders before we get to the conference by conference preseason projections for 2019.
First, if you want to see our measure of expected performance level for all teams in 2019, independent of schedule strength, check out our 2019 college football preseason rankings.
Second, once the 2019 college football season starts, remember that we update all of our season projections and conference title odds daily on our college football projected standings page.
ACC Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| Atlantic | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 0.4 | 11.3 | 0.7 | 100.0% | 71.7% | 53.8% |
| Syracuse | 4.3 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 80.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Florida St | 4.2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 72.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| NC State | 3.8 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 75.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Boston Col | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 59.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Wake Forest | 3.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 58.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Louisville | 1.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 19.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Coastal | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Miami (FL) | 5.5 | 2.5 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 91.8% | 8.8% | 6.3% |
| VA Tech | 5.0 | 3.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 90.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Virginia | 4.5 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 81.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Pittsburgh | 3.8 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 59.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Duke | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 52.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| N Carolina | 2.8 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 40.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| GA Tech | 2.4 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 28.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
The ACC is again Clemson’s to lose. Syracuse, the only other ACC team to finish last season ranked in the AP Poll, is the closest challenger to Clemson in the Atlantic division.
Last year, 7-7 Pittsburgh won the Coastal Division after Miami and Virginia Tech both disappointed. This season, Miami and Virginia Tech are projected to rebound and again are the favorites in the Coastal.
The two schools projected at the bottom of the league, Louisville and Georgia Tech, are each moving on from notable coaches in Bobby Petrino and Paul Johnson, respectively. For Georgia Tech, it will be a big culture shock to move away from the triple option offense.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Clemson (71.7% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
North Carolina, from 2 wins to 5.0 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Georgia Tech, from 7 wins to 4.3 projected wins
Big 12 Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| Team | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Oklahoma | 7.5 | 1.5 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 98.1% | 48.4% | 22.7% |
| Texas | 6.2 | 2.8 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 91.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% |
| Iowa State | 5.3 | 3.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 82.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% |
| TX Christian | 4.9 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 75.6% | 7.2% | 1.3% |
| Oklahoma St | 4.7 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 74.8% | 5.7% | 1.3% |
| Baylor | 4.5 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 80.2% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Texas Tech | 3.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 59.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| W Virginia | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 41.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Kansas St | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 43.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Kansas | 1.4 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Can anyone challenge Oklahoma’s supremacy? Texas lost to Oklahoma in the title game last year, and the Longhorns are expecting big things in 2019.
After those two teams, Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Baylor are in a four-team logjam.
Leadership changes are rife at the bottom of the conference, and they could create some uncertainty and surprises. Texas Tech, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Kansas all have new coaches, and three of them don’t like to eat grass, as far as we know.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Oklahoma (48.4% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Texas Tech, 5 wins to 6.1 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
West Virginia, 8 wins to 5.1 projected wins
Big Ten Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Michigan | 7.2 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 97.8% | 34.2% | 18.4% |
| Ohio State | 6.7 | 2.3 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 97.0% | 21.7% | 11.8% |
| Michigan St | 5.5 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 89.5% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Penn State | 5.4 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 89.6% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
| Indiana | 3.6 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 67.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Maryland | 2.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 27.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Rutgers | 1.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 7.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Iowa | 5.3 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 83.8% | 6.4% | 1.9% |
| Nebraska | 5.1 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 81.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| Wisconsin | 5.1 | 3.9 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 85.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% |
| Minnesota | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 79.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Purdue | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 64.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Northwestern | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 62.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Illinois | 2.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 27.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
This year is always supposed to be “the year” with Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, but the doubts will not go away until the Wolverines break through against Ohio State. Our projections have Michigan slightly ahead of the Buckeyes this year, and it will likely come down to the big rivalry game again.
In the West, last year’s title game participant, Northwestern, is projected all the way down in sixth place. Four teams are projected with between 5.0 and 5.3 conference wins, so the race to reach the Big Ten title game seems wide open.
Nebraska is expected to take a leap in Scott Frost’s second year, and Minnesota is also expected to contend along with Iowa and Wisconsin. Fun fact: the last time Minnesota won six Big Ten games in a single season was all the way back in 1973.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Michigan (34.2% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Nebraska, 4 wins to 7.7 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Northwestern, 8 wins to 6.3 projected wins
Pac-12 Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| North | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Washington | 6.5 | 2.5 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 94.7% | 22.3% | 11.3% |
| Oregon | 6.2 | 2.8 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 92.4% | 16.1% | 5.7% |
| Stanford | 5.2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 66.5% | 8.1% | 1.5% |
| Wash State | 5.2 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 84.9% | 7.8% | 2.4% |
| California | 2.8 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 36.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Oregon St | 1.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 9.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Utah | 6.3 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 94.0% | 20.6% | 7.8% |
| USC | 5.4 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 74.2% | 12.5% | 2.3% |
| UCLA | 4.6 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 58.7% | 4.8% | 0.6% |
| Arizona St | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 65.8% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Arizona | 3.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 58.6% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Colorado | 2.3 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 24.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Can a Pac-12 team get into the College Football Playoff discussion? None are ranked in the preseason Top 10, but three of them look to have at least an outside shot.
The Pac-12 is the most balanced Power Five conference at the top, as Washington, Utah, and Oregon each have odds between 16% and 22% to win the conference.
Kyle Willingham’s Utes are finally getting some preseason love, ranked in the AP Poll for the first time in August since 2009. Utah has been ranked in November, though, in four of the last five years.
UCLA and USC are expected to rebound after rough 2018 campaigns that saw both teams finish with losing records. Until last season, the last time both schools had more losses than wins was back in 1958, in what was then the Pacific Coast Conference.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Washington (22.3% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
UCLA, 3 wins to 6.1 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Washington State, 10 wins to 7.8 projected wins
SEC Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Georgia | 6.6 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 99.0% | 32.7% | 26.3% |
| Florida | 5.0 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 91.4% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Missouri | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Kentucky | 3.2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 70.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Tennessee | 3.2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 72.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| S Carolina | 3.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 52.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Vanderbilt | 2.0 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 34.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Alabama | 6.8 | 1.2 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 99.8% | 36.7% | 33.1% |
| LSU | 5.4 | 2.6 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 94.3% | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| Texas A&M | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 86.8% | 4.9% | 0.8% |
| Miss State | 4.1 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 85.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Auburn | 4.0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 82.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Mississippi | 2.1 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 32.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas | 1.6 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 38.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
An Alabama-Georgia rematch in the SEC title game is the most likely outcome, but plenty of teams could upset that prediction. Texas A&M and Auburn are ranked 10th and 11th in our preseason power rankings, but each team projects for less than 8 wins once schedule strength is considered.
A note to remember: Missouri is replacing Drew Lock with Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant at quarterback, but the Tigers are ineligible for a bowl game and cannot participate in the SEC title game if they were to win the SEC East, pending their appeal.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Alabama (36.7% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Arkansas, 2 wins to 5.1 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Kentucky, 9 wins to 6.7 projected wins
Preseason Football Predictions For Other FBS Conferences
AAC Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Central FL | 6.0 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 93.5% | 26.5% | 9.2% |
| Cincinnati | 5.3 | 2.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 82.4% | 16.4% | 1.6% |
| S Florida | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 62.1% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Temple | 3.9 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 66.9% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| E Carolina | 2.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 38.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Connecticut | 1.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Memphis | 5.7 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 94.8% | 22.3% | 11.8% |
| Houston | 5.2 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 80.3% | 16.2% | 1.5% |
| Tulane | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 58.6% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| S Methodist | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 58.1% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Navy | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 46.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Tulsa | 2.6 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 29.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
Central Florida has been on quite a run the last two years, and they are still the slight favorite to win the conference over Memphis. However, UCF’s projections took a hit because QB McKenzie Milton’s injury resulted in a big loss to returning passing production. Coach Josh Heupel named Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush as the replacement with less than two weeks to go before the first game.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
UCF (26.5% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Navy, 3 wins to 5.3 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
UCF, 12 wins to 8.9 projected wins
Conference USA Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Marshall | 5.5 | 2.5 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 82.8% | 16.2% | 2.3% |
| Fla Atlantic | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 80.2% | 16.4% | 0.7% |
| Florida Intl | 4.9 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 79.9% | 9.2% | 1.4% |
| Middle Tenn | 4.1 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 47.4% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| W Kentucky | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 45.2% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 33.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Old Dominion | 2.3 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 17.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| North Texas | 5.6 | 2.4 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 82.5% | 14.4% | 2.3% |
| S Mississippi | 5.6 | 2.4 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 79.6% | 17.5% | 0.2% |
| UAB | 4.8 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 80.0% | 6.6% | 0.9% |
| LA Tech | 4.8 | 3.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 82.0% | 9.3% | 1.1% |
| TX-San Ant | 2.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 15.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| TX El Paso | 2.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 14.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rice | 1.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 9.9 | 5.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Conference USA is the most wide-open conference in FBS. Seven teams are projected to win between 7.1 and 7.7 regular season games, so it’s anyone’s guess which team is going to come out on top.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Southern Miss (17.5% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Western Kentucky, 3 wins to 5.3 projected wins
UTEP, 1 win to 3.3 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Middle Tennessee, 8 wins to 5.4 projected wins
MAC Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Ohio | 5.5 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 83.6% | 22.4% | 3.1% |
| Buffalo | 4.6 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 65.7% | 8.6% | 0.4% |
| Miami (OH) | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 52.6% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Kent State | 2.9 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 19.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Akron | 2.6 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 22.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Bowling Grn | 2.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 17.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| W Michigan | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 83.7% | 20.2% | 1.2% |
| Toledo | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 76.6% | 14.7% | 1.8% |
| N Illinois | 5.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 66.9% | 14.3% | 0.4% |
| E Michigan | 4.2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 59.4% | 5.2% | 0.5% |
| Ball State | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 32.2% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Central Mich | 2.5 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 22.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Six different schools have reached the MAC Championship Game over the last three seasons. Our projections favor the same matchup that happened back in 2016, with Ohio and Western Michigan as the slight favorites in their respective divisions.
MAC-tion, though, typically dictates that you should expect the unexpected.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Ohio (22.4% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Central Michigan, 1 win to 3.9 projected wins.
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Buffalo, 9 wins to 6.5 projected wins
Mountain West Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| Mountain | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 1.3 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 96.9% | 40.7% | 14.3% |
| Air Force | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 80.2% | 10.5% | 2.6% |
| Utah State | 4.8 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 70.7% | 10.7% | 0.6% |
| Wyoming | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 49.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| New Mexico | 2.6 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 32.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Colorado St | 2.2 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 20.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Fresno St | 5.2 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 81.9% | 14.1% | 1.8% |
| San Diego St | 5.2 | 2.8 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 80.6% | 11.4% | 3.1% |
| Nevada | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 61.0% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Hawaii | 3.7 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 56.4% | 4.1% | 0.1% |
| UNLV | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 31.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| San Jose St | 2.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 15.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Boise State is the heavy favorite to win the conference. We project Air Force — coming off consecutive seasons of missing a bowl game for the first time under Troy Calhoun — to be the most likely challenger to Boise in the Mountain Division.
In the West Division, it’s a virtual dead heat between Fresno State and San Diego State. The November matchup between the two in San Diego could be decisive.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Boise State (40.7% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Air Force, 5 wins to 7.5 projected wins
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Utah State, 10 wins to 6.8 projected wins
Sun Belt Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| App State | 6.3 | 1.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 94.5% | 36.3% | 6.8% |
| Troy | 4.9 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 77.3% | 13.0% | 1.5% |
| GA Southern | 4.6 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 71.2% | 8.3% | 0.2% |
| Georgia State | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 31.1% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Coastal Car | 2.2 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 30.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Arkansas St | 5.6 | 2.4 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 85.4% | 22.8% | 0.7% |
| LA Lafayette | 4.4 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 66.4% | 9.1% | 0.6% |
| LA Monroe | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 39.5% | 4.8% | 0.1% |
| Texas State | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 37.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| S Alabama | 1.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 12.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Why does the Sun Belt even have two divisions? With only 10 teams, that means every team basically plays the same schedule, avoiding just one conference opponent.
Last year, the league was imbalanced, as the three best records came from the East. That resulted in the fifth-best team by power rating, Louisiana (Lafayette), playing Appalachian State in the title game.
Most Likely Conference Champion:
Appalachian State (36.3% odds)
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Georgia State, 2 wins to 4.5 projected wins.
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Georgia Southern, 9 wins to 6.6 projected wins
Independent I-A Football Preseason Predictions 2019
| Team | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| U Mass | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 13.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liberty | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 57.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| BYU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 61.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| N Mex State | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 20.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Army | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 98.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| Notre Dame | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 95.9% | 0.0% | 4.5% |
Army — not Notre Dame — has the best odds to win 11 or more games among independents. In fact, even though the Black Knights play at Michigan this year, Army still has the highest chance (38.9%) to get to 11 wins of any non-Power Five team, thanks to a remaining schedule that can best be described as “generous.”
Biggest Projected Improvement vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
New Mexico State, 3 wins to 3.8 projected wins.
Biggest Projected Decline vs. 2018 Regular Season Record:
Notre Dame, 12 wins to 8.9 projected wins
How We Make College Football Preseason Predictions
We have identified a set of team-level metrics that have demonstrated predictive value for projecting a team’s upcoming season results.
We identified these metrics by reviewing about a decade’s worth of college football data and applying significance tests to any interesting-looking findings. Then, we built an algorithmic model that takes in these metrics as inputs, and computes a numerical preseason predictive rating for all 130 FBS teams.
To read more about our preseason ratings, please read our deep dive into our college football preseason ratings methodology, and of course check out our 2019 college football preseason rankings.
Going from Preseason Ratings to End Of Season Projections
A team’s preseason rating signifies how good we think it will be this coming season. Figuring out precisely how many games we expect that team to win, however, is more complicated.
To do that, we run thousands of game-by-game computer simulations of the 2019 college football season, using our predictive ratings to come up with implied win odds for each game.
Thanks to randomness, each season simulation plays out differently. Occasionally in a simulation, an unheralded team gets lucky, makes a run and wins its conference.
Over thousands of simulation runs, though, trends in the results begin to emerge. The predictions in this post represent the averages of all the 2019 college football season simulations we conducted.
Why Is A Simulation-Driven Approach Valuable?
Despite some limitations, our simulation-driven approach to making preseason college football predictions has proven to be a lot more accurate than many alternatives.
Human college football “experts” (some of them, at least) can do a decent job of projecting the future performance level of a team — especially one they’ve studied closely, in a conference they’re very familiar with. But on the whole, humans tend to have a very poor grasp of the potential impact of probability and randomness over the course of a full college football season.
For example, even skilled “football people” tend to underestimate a great team’s odds of losing to a mediocre or bad team. It’s true that a team like Oklahoma is very unlikely to lose to a team like Kansas, but no game is a lock. Over the course of a season, even small loss probabilities can add up to a decent chance of a great team losing at least one game to a significantly inferior opponent.
You can’t discount those probabilities, especially when conference championships can be decided by just one win. Our simulation-driven approach makes sure we never do.
Is it a perfect system? Absolutely not. When the dust settles at the end of the season, some of our preseason projections will almost certainly be way off. Some teams will simply defy our expectations. Other projections will be derailed by injuries, suspensions and other unexpected events that occur.
Our goal, however, is the overall accuracy of the system — how well, on balance, it projects all 130 teams.
How To Interpret Our CFB Preseason Predictions
In closing, it’s important to understand how our system generates the results it does, and precisely what the numbers mean. Here are some key details:
- We end up projecting a lot of fractional wins. That obviously can’t happen in real life. However, we don’t want to reduce precision in the numbers just to make them look prettier. For example, a projected 8.4 win team has better prospects than a projected 7.6 win team. If we rounded those numbers, they’d look the same (a projected 8 wins each).
- Even if we project a team with X wins, it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re highly confident they’ll end up with that EXACT number. Let’s say we have a team projected to win exactly 7.0 wins. In our season simulations, 7 wins may have been the most common outcome, but that team may have ended up with 6 or 8 wins nearly as often, and hit 5 or 9 wins some of the time. Our final projection, since it’s an average of all those numbers, ends up at 7 wins — but the odds of the team ending up with exactly 7 wins actually aren’t that high.
- Projections can change slightly day-to-day, even with no new game results. Because we re-simulate the season every day, randomness in simulation results may cause slight fluctuations in team projections from one day to the next, even if no new games have been played. So it’s wise not to read too much into tiny differences in the projections. A 0.1% difference in conference champion odds between two teams, for example, is practically meaningless.
If you’re in a football pool or planning on betting some games this football season, check out our Football Pick’em Pool Picks , NFL Survivor Picks and College Football Betting Picks.
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