Initial 2012 College Football Preseason Projections & Conference Win Odds

August 16, 2012 - by Austin Link

The Associated Press is set to release their annual preseason college football poll this weekend, fueling the speculation and anticipation of fans across the country. So now seems like a good time to announce that the preliminary version of our TeamRankings 2012 college football preseason projections are up on the site. Last year, our inaugural 2011 college football preseason projections proved overall to be successful, especially if your goal was to unearth some value in Vegas futures odds and win totals. Here we go again for 2012…

Doing well against Vegas lines is always nice, but as this is only our second year doing preseason college football projections, so nothing’s a guarantee. We feel like we’ve got a decent predictive system created, but we’re still learning and refining as we go. Hopefully we’ll get to do a future post that lays out our prediction methodology for college football in more detail, along with aspects we see as current strengths and weaknesses.

What makes the predictions below “preliminary” in nature? They still don’t incorporate some key data, most notably final team rosters, which we won’t process and analyze until 3-5 days before the season starts. (This is primarily just a consequence of when our data provider updates roster information for the new season, but we’d want to wait until teams finalize their rosters anyhow, to make predictions based off the best possible data.) Our goal is to get our final preseason projections posted no later than Tuesday, August 29.

In the meantime, the preliminary numbers below still offer a directional guide for the upcoming year, and provides some insight into unique and interesting situations going into college football this year. All BCS conference projections are in the table below, or you can check out all conference and FBS teams on our college football projections page, which is updated daily throughout the season. A few notable teams are highlighted below:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Last year’s National Champions emerged from the toughest conference in football, the SEC, to reach the pinnacle of the BCS. Our projections for Alabama are even better this season than they were in 2011. They give ‘Bama higher than a one in eight chance of finishing the regular season undefeated, despite fighting through an even tougher SEC that’s now added Missouri and Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide will again be serious national title contenders.

Oklahoma Sooners

Texas’s reputation may be what’s holding the Big 12 together, but it’s Oklahoma’s play that will keep the conference prominent on the national stage. After spending most of last year ranked number 1, the Sooners faltered down the stretch with three losses in six games. This year our models see a return to elite status however, with Oklahoma having the second highest projected win total of any team. Be on the lookout for Bob Stoops next to the Big 12 trophy when December rolls around.

USC Trojans

Lane Kiffen’s crew is finally out from under a postseason bowl ban, and star QB Matt Barkley has returned for another season in an attempt to reach his first bowl game. The addition of Penn State transfer Silas Redd has increased the hype around the Trojans though, and some in LA are thinking championship. Our projections think USC will be very good, with a 93% chance to be bowl eligible, but a title? That’s far more of a stretch for a team we currently project to be the third best in the Pac 12. They’ll likely have a pretty good year, but greatness may have to wait.

Wisconsin Badgers

When creating the bizarrely named Legends and Leaders divisions last year, the Big Ten put a lot of effort into maintaining a competitive balance. They probably never expected that two perennial football powerhouses, Ohio State and Penn State, would not be allowed to play in the conference championship game. The demise of those two teams has opened the door for the clear new conference favorites, the Badgers. Wisconsin may not be that much better than the rest of the Big Ten, but the 45% of the time that either PSU or OSU wins the division still likely ends up with Bret Bielema and company in the conference title game.

Agree? Disagree? Drop a comment and we’ll give our Nerd perspective in return…

Preliminary 2012-2013 College Football Preseason Projections
ACC Atlantic
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
Florida St	9	3	6	2	92%	28%	7%
Clemson	7.2	4.8	4.4	3.6	73%	9%	2%
Boston Col	6.4	5.6	4	4	64%	7%	1%
NC State	6.1	5.9	3.6	4.4	60%	5%	1%
Wake Forest	4.6	7.4	2.8	5.2	38%	2%	0%
Maryland	4.2	7.8	2.5	5.5	33%	2%	0%
ACC Coastal
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
GA Tech	8.3	3.7	5.4	2.6	85%	18%	4%
VA Tech	7.8	4.2	4.9	3.1	79%	16%	3%
N Carolina	7.9	4.1	4.7	3.3	0%	0%	4%
Miami (FL)	6.5	5.5	4.4	3.6	64%	10%	1%
Virginia	4.6	7.4	2.9	5.1	39%	2%	0%
Duke	4.9	7.1	2.4	5.6	40%	2%	0%
Big 12
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
Oklahoma	10.2	1.8	7.4	1.6	97%	37%	16%
Oklahoma St	9.5	2.5	6.7	2.3	95%	22%	8%
Texas	8.9	3.1	6.1	2.9	91%	15%	5%
TX Christian	8.4	3.6	5.6	3.4	87%	12%	4%
Kansas St	7	5	4.4	4.6	73%	4%	1%
W Virginia	7	5	4.2	4.8	73%	4%	1%
Baylor	6.3	5.7	3.8	5.2	64%	3%	1%
Texas Tech	6.3	5.7	3.4	5.6	64%	2%	0%
Iowa State	4	8	2.4	6.6	31%	1%	0%
Kansas	3	9	1.1	7.9	14%	0%	0%
Big East
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
S Florida	7.9	4.1	4.6	2.4	79%	23%	4%
Cincinnati	8.2	3.8	4.3	2.7	85%	19%	4%
Pittsburgh	7.4	4.6	3.9	3.1	77%	14%	2%
Rutgers	7.3	4.7	3.6	3.4	76%	11%	2%
Temple	5.9	5.1	3.4	3.6	56%	11%	2%
Connecticut	6.9	5.1	3.3	3.7	68%	9%	2%
Louisville	6	6	3.1	3.9	58%	9%	1%
Syracuse	4.1	7.9	2	5	32%	3%	0%
Big Ten Leaders
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
Wisconsin	9.3	2.7	5.8	2.2	93%	31%	8%
Ohio State	8.7	3.3	5.2	2.8	0%	0%	5%
Penn State	7.7	4.3	4.6	3.4	0%	0%	3%
Illinois	6.5	5.5	3.7	4.3	65%	6%	1%
Purdue	5.8	6.2	3.1	4.9	56%	5%	0%
Indiana	3.5	8.5	1.3	6.7	24%	1%	0%
Big Ten Legends
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
Michigan	8.3	3.7	5.8	2.2	86%	23%	3%
Nebraska	8.2	3.8	4.9	3.1	84%	14%	4%
Michigan St	7.6	4.4	4.8	3.2	76%	12%	2%
Iowa	7.4	4.6	4.2	3.8	75%	6%	2%
Northwestrn	5.1	6.9	2.9	5.1	46%	2%	0%
Minnesota	4.5	7.5	1.8	6.2	37%	1%	0%
Pac 12 North
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
Oregon	10.6	1.4	7.7	1.3	99%	36%	21%
Stanford	9.7	2.3	7.2	1.8	96%	22%	9%
California	5.8	6.2	3.9	5.1	56%	2%	0%
Oregon St	5.1	6.9	3.6	5.4	46%	2%	0%
Washington	5.1	6.9	3.3	5.7	45%	1%	0%
Wash State	4.2	7.8	2.5	6.5	30%	0%	0%
Pac 12 South
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
USC	9.3	2.7	6.6	2.4	93%	20%	8%
Utah	8.6	3.4	6.3	2.7	85%	10%	5%
UCLA	5.5	6.5	4.1	4.9	51%	3%	1%
Arizona	5.4	6.6	3.6	5.4	50%	2%	0%
Arizona St	5.2	6.8	3.5	5.5	46%	1%	0%
Colorado	3.6	8.4	1.8	7.2	23%	0%	0%
SEC East
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
Florida	9.1	2.9	5.6	2.4	92%	16%	7%
Georgia	8.3	3.7	4.7	3.3	87%	6%	4%
Vanderbilt	7.5	4.5	4.1	3.9	77%	4%	2%
Missouri	7.4	4.6	4	4	77%	5%	2%
S Carolina	7.1	4.9	3.7	4.3	75%	4%	1%
Tennessee	7	5	3.4	4.6	75%	3%	1%
Kentucky	4.1	7.9	1.4	6.6	29%	0%	0%
SEC West
Team	Wins	Losses	Conf Wins	Conf Losses	Bowl Eligible	Win Conf	Undefeated
Alabama	10.1	1.9	6.3	1.7	98%	26%	14%
LSU	9.5	2.5	5.6	2.4	96%	17%	9%
Arkansas	8.1	3.9	4.7	3.3	84%	8%	3%
Texas A&M	8	4	4.5	3.5	84%	7%	3%
Miss State	6.8	5.2	3.1	4.9	72%	2%	1%
Auburn	6.6	5.4	3.1	4.9	68%	2%	1%
Mississippi	4.6	7.4	1.8	6.2	36%	0%	0%