December 5, 2011 - by David Hess
Four teams — Arkansas, Boise State, Kansas State, and South Carolina — finished in the top 10 of the BCS Standings, but didn’t get invited to one of the five BCS Bowls (Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl, or the BCS Title Game).
Much has been written about the disappointment of the players and fans of those four programs, but can we quantify just how much of a raw deal each team got?
With the help of bowl payout info from Wikipedia, we gave it a try.
Using the payout values as a proxy for prestige, we compared the payout for a team’s actual bowl versus the one they would have played in, if invitations were handed out in strict BCS rank order*
*We used our Overall Power Ratings to fill in ranks 26 through 70, since it had the highest correlation to the BCS Top 25 out of any of our rankings.
Using that method, it looks to us like Boise State was served $17 million worth of snub. South Carolina was insulted to the tune of $13.8 million, and Cotton Bowl participants Arkansas and Kansas State swallowed $11.3 million worth of pride.
Here’s the full top 10:
Team Rank* Bowl Bowl Payout Rank-Based Payout $ Difference
Boise St 7 Maaco Las Vegas $1,000,000 $18,000,000 -$17,000,000
S Carolina 9 Capital One $4,250,000 $18,000,000 -$13,750,000
Arkansas 6 Cotton Classic $6,750,000 $18,000,000 -$11,250,000
Kansas St 8 Cotton Classic $6,750,000 $18,000,000 -$11,250,000
Baylor 12 Alamo $2,250,000 $6,750,000 -$4,500,000
Oklahoma 14 Insight $1,200,000 $4,250,000 -$3,050,000
TCU 18 Poinsettia $750,000 $3,350,000 -$2,600,000
S Mississippi 21 Hawaiʻi $750,000 $2,250,000 -$1,500,000
Houston 19 TicketCity $1,200,000 $2,500,000 -$1,300,000
Texas 24 Holiday $1,000,000 $2,125,000 -$1,125,000
There are logic reasons a lot of these teams are on the list.
The SEC squads show up partly because only two teams from each conference can participate in the BCS, meaning Arkansas and USC get relegated to less prestigious spots.
Boise State, TCU, and the other little guys are listed because, well, they’re the little guys. The bowls prefer to invite the blue bloods.
On the other end of the spectrum from the Cotton Bowl’s slighted programs, the Orange Bowl gave out the most undeserved invitations, with West Virginia and Clemson stealing $15.9 and $14.6 million worth of spotlight.
Here are ten teams whose cushy bowl designations were more a result of program pedigree and conference affiliation, rather than performance on the field:
Team Rank* Bowl Bowl Payout Rank-Based Payout $ Difference
W Virginia 23 Orange $18,000,000 $2,125,000 $15,875,000
Clemson 15 Orange $18,000,000 $3,400,000 $14,600,000
Michigan 13 Sugar $18,000,000 $4,250,000 $13,750,000
VA Tech 11 Sugar $18,000,000 $6,750,000 $11,250,000
Virginia 45 Chick-fil-A $3,350,000 $1,000,000 $2,350,000
Nebraska 20 Capital One $4,250,000 $2,500,000 $1,750,000
Florida 42 Gator $2,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000
Ohio St 47 Gator $2,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000
Auburn 25 Chick-fil-A $3,350,000 $2,000,000 $1,350,000
Rutgers 57 Pinstripe $2,000,000 $750,000 $1,250,000
Clemson and West Virginia are here because they won their conferences. More power to them.
Florida, Ohio State, Nebraska, Auburn, and Michigan, though? Their reputations certainly sell tickets, and there’s no arguing that’s not a criteria in bowl selection.
Heck, it’s even written into the BCS selection procedure:
“5. After completion of the selection process … the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings taking into consideration the following: [A/B/C] … D. whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on ESPN and the bowls.”
Finally, fans of schools not in the above top (or bottom) 10’s may wonder how well-deserved their bowl bid was. For that, we’ll refer you the full list of all 70 bowl participants.
A few were spot on, like the obvious LSU and Alabama. But some of the smaller bowls invited exactly who you’d expect based on quality of play, as well. The Belk Bowl, for example, ended up with #41 NC State and #50 Louisville, which is pretty close to spot on.
So, find your team, check out whether you got a fair deal, and then ratchet up the indignation or relief, whatever seems appropriate:
Team Rank* Bowl Bowl Payout Rank-Based Payout $ Difference
Boise St 7 Maaco Las Vegas $1,000,000 $18,000,000 -$17,000,000
S Carolina 9 Capital One $4,250,000 $18,000,000 -$13,750,000
Arkansas 6 Cotton Classic $6,750,000 $18,000,000 -$11,250,000
Kansas St 8 Cotton Classic $6,750,000 $18,000,000 -$11,250,000
Baylor 12 Alamo $2,250,000 $6,750,000 -$4,500,000
Oklahoma 14 Insight $1,200,000 $4,250,000 -$3,050,000
TCU 18 Poinsettia $750,000 $3,350,000 -$2,600,000
S Mississippi 21 Hawaiʻi $750,000 $2,250,000 -$1,500,000
Houston 19 TicketCity $1,200,000 $2,500,000 -$1,300,000
Texas 24 Holiday $1,000,000 $2,125,000 -$1,125,000
Penn St 22 TicketCity $1,200,000 $2,250,000 -$1,050,000
Missouri 26 Independence $1,100,000 $2,000,000 -$900,000
California 30 Holiday $1,000,000 $1,700,000 -$700,000
BYU 33 Armed Forces $750,000 $1,350,000 -$600,000
Arkansas St 34 GoDaddy.com $750,000 $1,350,000 -$600,000
LA Tech 36 Poinsettia $750,000 $1,200,000 -$450,000
San Diego St 58 New Orleans $325,000 $750,000 -$425,000
LA Lafayette 62 New Orleans $325,000 $750,000 -$425,000
UCLA 40 Kraft Fight Hunger $800,000 $1,100,000 -$300,000
Tulsa 43 Armed Forces $750,000 $1,000,000 -$250,000
N Illinois 46 GoDaddy.com $750,000 $1,000,000 -$250,000
Texas A&M 27 Meineke Car Care $1,700,000 $1,900,000 -$200,000
Wyoming 53 New Mexico $750,000 $800,000 -$50,000
LSU 1 BCS Title Game $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $0
Alabama 2 BCS Title Game $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $0
Oklahoma St 3 Fiesta $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $0
Stanford 4 Fiesta $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $0
Oregon 5 Rose $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $0
Wisconsin 10 Rose $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $0
Georgia 16 Outback $3,400,000 $3,400,000 $0
Mississippi St 31 Music City $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $0
Iowa 37 Insight $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $0
NC State 41 Belk $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $0
Louisville 50 Belk $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $0
Toledo 51 Military $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $0
Purdue 56 Little Caesars Pizza $750,000 $750,000 $0
Utah St 59 Famous Idaho Potato $750,000 $750,000 $0
Nevada 60 Hawaiʻi $750,000 $750,000 $0
W Michigan 65 Little Caesars Pizza $750,000 $750,000 $0
Temple 66 New Mexico $750,000 $750,000 $0
Michigan St 17 Outback $3,400,000 $3,350,000 $50,000
Illinois 64 Kraft Fight Hunger $800,000 $750,000 $50,000
Iowa St 28 Pinstripe $2,000,000 $1,900,000 $100,000
N Carolina 52 Independence $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $100,000
Vanderbilt 38 Liberty $1,350,000 $1,200,000 $150,000
Arizona St 54 Maaco Las Vegas $1,000,000 $800,000 $200,000
Pittsburgh 55 BBVA Compass $1,000,000 $750,000 $250,000
Florida Intl 63 Beef 'O' Brady's $1,000,000 $750,000 $250,000
Marshall 67 Beef 'O' Brady's $1,000,000 $750,000 $250,000
Air Force 68 Military $1,000,000 $750,000 $250,000
Cincinnati 48 Liberty $1,350,000 $1,000,000 $350,000
Notre Dame 29 Champs Sports $2,125,000 $1,700,000 $425,000
Florida St 32 Champs Sports $2,125,000 $1,700,000 $425,000
Ohio 69 Famous Idaho Potato $750,000 $325,000 $425,000
SMU 70 BBVA Compass $1,000,000 $325,000 $675,000
Northwestern 49 Meineke Car Care $1,700,000 $1,000,000 $700,000
Utah 39 Sun $1,900,000 $1,100,000 $800,000
GA Tech 44 Sun $1,900,000 $1,000,000 $900,000
Wake Forest 61 Music City $1,700,000 $750,000 $950,000
Washington 35 Alamo $2,250,000 $1,200,000 $1,050,000
Rutgers 57 Pinstripe $2,000,000 $750,000 $1,250,000
Auburn 25 Chick-fil-A $3,350,000 $2,000,000 $1,350,000
Florida 42 Gator $2,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000
Ohio St 47 Gator $2,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000
Nebraska 20 Capital One $4,250,000 $2,500,000 $1,750,000
Virginia 45 Chick-fil-A $3,350,000 $1,000,000 $2,350,000
VA Tech 11 Sugar $18,000,000 $6,750,000 $11,250,000
Michigan 13 Sugar $18,000,000 $4,250,000 $13,750,000
Clemson 15 Orange $18,000,000 $3,400,000 $14,600,000
W Virginia 23 Orange $18,000,000 $2,125,000 $15,875,000
By the way, if you’re going to compete in a Bowl Pick’em or are planning on wagering on some of the games, make sure to check out our 2011-2012 college football bowl games section, complete with bowl predictions, bowl betting picks, and bowl pick’em advice and picks.
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