NFL Week 15 Rankings + Projections Update: Giants, Cowboys, Colts Shine

December 13, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 15 Projections and Rankings

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 15 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by Giants, Cowboys, and Colts.

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NFL Week 15 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 15. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
NY Giants	NFC East	W 40-16 at WAS	24	20	-2.8	-1.7	1.1
Tennessee	AFC South	W 30-9 vs. JAX	21	19	-1.4	-0.7	0.7
Chicago	NFC North	W 15-6 vs. LAR	9	9	2.5	3.1	0.6
Detroit	NFC North	W 17-3 at ARI	25	24	-3.1	-2.5	0.6
Miami	AFC East	W 34-33 vs. NE	27	27	-5.0	-4.5	0.5

The Giants got a big win against Washington, who started third-string quarterback Mark Sanchez before switching to newly signed Josh Johnson. New York has now won four of five games, albeit with the benefit of a weak recent schedule.

Tennessee dominated an increasingly hapless Jaguars team on Thursday night, as the Titans attempt to scratch and claw their way toward an AFC playoff spot. Our ratings still have the Titans in the bottom half of the NFL, but they are climbing after the 21-point victory.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 15 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 15:

Team	Division	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Miami	AFC East	W 34-33 vs. NE	7.5	8.3	0.8
Oakland	AFC West	W 24-21 vs. PIT	3.1	3.9	0.8
NY Giants	NFC East	W 40-16 at WAS	5.7	6.4	0.7
Chicago	NFC North	W 15-6 vs. LAR	10.2	10.8	0.6
San Francisco	NFC West	W 20-14 vs. DEN	3.2	3.8	0.6

The Miami Miracle vs. New England increased the Dolphins’ projected win total by nearly one full win. Miami’s 2018 season finishes off at Minnesota, vs. Jacksonville, and at Buffalo as they try to finish above .500.

The Raiders hurt their chances at getting the No. 1 overall draft pick with a big upset of the Steelers. Their 3.9 season win projection is the worst in the AFC, but it still leads the 49ers and Cardinals of the NFC.

Chicago is inching closer to an 11-win season after defeating the Rams. The last time the Bears won 11 games was 2010, and that was also the last time the organization made the playoffs.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 15 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Dallas	NFC East	W 29-23 vs. PHI	72.7%	98.9%	26.2%
Chicago	NFC North	W 15-6 vs. LAR	79.3%	96.9%	17.6%
Baltimore	AFC North	L 27-24 at KC	28.8%	41.3%	12.5%
Tennessee	AFC South	W 30-9 vs. JAX	2.1%	7.9%	5.8%
Indianapolis	AFC South	W 24-21 at HOU	3.1%	7.4%	4.3%

The Cowboys hold a two game lead in the NFC East after defeating Philadelphia and after Washington’s loss to the Giants. They’ve won five straight games and are now fighting to move up to the No. 3 seed, though they are currently one game behind the Bears.

Speaking of the Bears, Chicago has the NFC North all but wrapped up with their win over the Rams, coupled with the Vikings’ loss at Seattle. First-year head coach Matt Nagy is a top candidate to win Head Coach of the Year as a result.

Despite losing a heartbreaker at Kansas City, the Ravens’ odds to win the NFC North actually increased, mostly due to Pittsburgh’s upset loss at Oakland. Baltimore remains only a half-game behind their division rivals, and Pittsburgh has a brutal two weeks ahead vs. New England and at New Orleans.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 15 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
Indianapolis	AFC South	W 24-21 at HOU	10.9%	32.9%	22.0%
Dallas	NFC East	W 29-23 vs. PHI	78.9%	99.1%	20.2%
Tennessee	AFC South	W 30-9 vs. JAX	12.7%	26.8%	14.1%
Miami	AFC East	W 34-33 vs. NE	5.2%	14.2%	9.0%
Seattle	NFC West	W 21-7 vs. MIN	90.4%	98.9%	8.5%

Indianapolis still has a bit of hope to make the playoffs, either by winning the AFC South (7.4%) or as a Wild Card (25.5%). They’ll need some help either way and also will need to perform well the rest of the season, starting with Sunday’s game vs. Dallas.

Tennessee is yet another team in the AFC South with a small but not-insignificant shot at making the playoffs. They visit the Giants this week before finishing out the year at home vs. Washington and Indianapolis.

Enjoy NFL Week 15, and if you’re in a football pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.