NFL Week 15 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

December 13, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 15 Matchups

With NFL Week 15 kicking off today, here’s a stats-driven preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

Want to maximize your edge in pools and betting? Our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

It’s the final Thursday game of the season (and arguably the best) as division rivals LAC and Kansas City battle for the AFC West. The Chargers currently trail by one game, and the Chiefs also hold the division record tiebreaker, but our projections still give Los Angeles a fighting chance to win the division at around 9%. Going into the game, LAC has major questions at running back. Regular starter Melvin Gordon is questionable with a knee injury, and replacement RB Austin Ekeler seems unlikely to go after injuring his neck on Sunday. Rookie seventh-round pick Justin Jackson could carry the load if neither back is able to go, and he’s averaging 5.1 yards on 27 carries. It could be his time to feast against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing 5.1 yards per carry (second worst). QB Philip Rivers is also having arguably his best season, with career highs in completion rate (69.4%) and yards per attempt (8.90) while throwing only six picks in 13 games. Rivers had a huge day in Week 1 against the Chiefs, throwing for 424 yards and three scores, and will have a lot to overcome if his top two running backs are still sidelined.

The Patrick Mahomes show continues in KC after the second-year quarterback led the Chiefs to a dramatic victory last week vs. Baltimore. He’s had extra pressure over the last two weeks after RB Kareem Hunt was released, but continues to be up to the challenge. Mahomes threw four touchdowns against the Chargers in Week 1, but the return of DE Joey Bosa could complicate matters for the Chiefs offense, as Bosa has four sacks in as many games since returning from a foot injury. While they’re expected to play, RB Spencer Ware and WR Tyreek Hill didn’t practice on Monday due to injuries they suffered on Sunday, which could also play a factor on a short week. The Chargers defense is seventh best in points allowed this season, ranking the top half of the league in both yards per rush allowed and yards per pass attempt allowed. Still, the defense has been damaged by elite teams, allowing 30-plus points to the Chiefs, Rams, and Steelers this season.

Head to Head: The Chiefs have won the last nine head-to-head matchups, including a 38-28 win at LA in Week 1.

Point Spread on Thursday: Kansas City -3.5 (after opening at -3)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head to Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits

 

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

After beating Philadelphia last week, Dallas has a two-game cushion in the NFC East as they visit Indianapolis. The Cowboys offense has scored only 21.3 points per game this season, but have shown more spark since acquiring WR Amari Cooper at the trade deadline. The team is 5-1 since adding him, winning five consecutive games. The offense still runs through RB Ezekiel Elliott, who has rushed for 100-plus yards seven times this season, and has led the Cowboys to being one of the most run-heavy teams in the league (44.3% rush play percentage). Indianapolis is well-equipped to stop Elliott, ranking sixth best with only 3.8 yards allowed per carry, so Cooper will be counted on to get over the top after finishing with 217 yards receiving and three scores last week. The key for the Cowboys offense on the road could be QB Dak Prescott’s ball security, as he’s thrown only seven picks in 13 games but has a league-high 12 fumbles.

The Colts got back on track last week after a tough Week 13 loss, with some better Andrew Luck. The likely NFL Comeback Player of the Year, Luck got back on the winning track with 399 yards passing and two touchdowns at Houston, and remains on pace to shatter his career-high 40 touchdown passes from 2014. While the Cowboys defense is No. 1 in yards per rush allowed (3.6), they have been beaten in the secondary, allowing 6.9 yards per pass and a 68.8% completion rate. Much of Luck’s effectiveness has been due to the great play of his offensive line and his ability to get the ball out quickly, as he’s been sacked on a league-low 2.9% of dropbacks, so the Cowboys’ great pass rush (7.6% sack rate) will have their hands full on the road.

Head to Head: Dallas has won the last three matchups, dating back to 2006. The last game was a 42-7 win by the Cowboys in 2014.

Point Spread on Thursday: Indianapolis -3

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head to Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits

 

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

These bitter AFC foes are coming off of similarly frustrating losses, as the Patriots lost on the Miami Miracle, while Pittsburgh fell to Oakland last week when kicker Chris Boswell slipped on a game-tying field goal attempt. Both teams are looking to turn the page, with the stakes high as they approach the playoffs. New England is hoping to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with an outside shot at home field advantage. QB Tom Brady is coming off arguably the best game of his season, throwing for 358 yards and three touchdowns at Miami. He could be in for a tougher day at Pittsburgh, as the Steelers defense ranks sixth in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.5) and first in sack rate (8.8%). Despite the addition of rookie RB Sony Michel, running the ball hasn’t been this offense’s strength, averaging only 4.0 yards per carry, so the pressure will be on Brady again to move the offense.

The Steelers have lost consecutive games and now run the risk of missing the playoffs; their odds of playing in the postseason are down to 67% according to our latest projections. Their chances look even bleaker if QB Ben Roethlisberger is limited, or worse, by a rib injury that he suffered last week; Oakland’s defense was able to take advantage of backup QB Josh Dobbs while Big Ben was out of the game last week. Of course, Roethlisberger isn’t the team’s only major injury concern. RB James Conner missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, and the Steelers offense averaged only 2.1 yards per carry in his stead. The Steelers desperately need to run better in this contest, facing a Patriots defense that’s allowing 4.9 yards per carry (sixth worst in the NFL). For all of the offense’s injuries, Pittsburgh is one of the most efficient units in the NFL overall, ranking fourth in points per game and first in Red Zone touchdown scoring rate.

Head to Head: The Patriots have won five straight games, including last year’s miraculous 27-24 win at Heinz Field overshadowed by the “catch” rule.

Point Spread on Thursday: New England -2.5 (after opening at -1)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head to Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits

Enjoy NFL Week 15, and if you’re in a football pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.