NFL Week 14 Rankings + Projections Update: Cowboys, Seahawks Make Waves

December 6, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 14 Projections and Rankings Updates

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 14 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by Seattle, Dallas, and Baltimore.

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NFL Week 14 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 14. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Seattle	W 43-16 vs. SF	10	8	2.1	2.9	0.8
Denver	W 24-10 at CIN	17	13	0.2	0.9	0.7
Arizona	W 20-17 at GB	32	32	-7.8	-7.1	0.7
Philadelphia	W 28-13 at WAS	16	14	0.4	0.9	0.5
LA Rams	W 30-16 at DET	2	2	7.4	7.8	0.4

Overcoming major offseason personnel losses, Seattle continues to shape up into a very formidable team. They’ve moved up five spots in our rankings over the last month.

Likewise, Denver had its third straight big win after easily beating the Bengals. The Broncos have increased their winning percentage to .500, and they have a good chance to keep the streak going with games at the 49ers, vs. the Browns, and at the Raiders over the next three weeks.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 14 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 14:

Team	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Arizona	W 20-17 at GB	3.1	4.0	0.9
LA Chargers	W 33-30 at PIT	10.6	11.3	0.7
Dallas	W 13-10 vs. NO	8.6	9.3	0.7
Denver	W 24-10 at CIN	7.8	8.4	0.6
Baltimore	W 26-16 at ATL	8.6	9.2	0.6

Did the Cardinals just end their shot to get the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft? They upset the Packers as 13.5-point underdogs, which now gives them one more projected win than Oakland and San Francisco.

The Chargers picked up a huge win at Pittsburgh, putting them in the driver’s seat for at least the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. The last time the team won at least 11 games was in 2009.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 14 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Dallas	NFC East	W 13-10 vs. NO	52.0%	72.6%	20.6%
Baltimore	AFC North	W 26-16 at ATL	9.9%	28.7%	18.8%
Houston	AFC South	W 29-13 vs. CLE	89.0%	94.8%	5.8%
LA Chargers	AFC West	W 33-30 at PIT	7.9%	11.1%	3.2%
Philadelphia	NFC East	W 28-13 at WAS	16.3%	17.7%	1.4%

An upset win by the Cowboys over New Orleans, coupled with Washington’s loss at Philly, allows the Cowboys to control their own destiny in the NFC East. Dallas has won four straight games, and considering Washington is now on its third-string quarterback, the Cowboys could all but lock up the division with a win vs. Philadelphia this week.

Baltimore now has a fighting chance in the AFC North after a win at Atlanta, along with Pittsburgh’s loss vs. the Chargers. Pittsburgh has a half-game lead with four games remaining, but the teams have a similarly difficult schedule ahead.

Houston’s improbable nine-game win streak has all but locked up the AFC South title. The Texans also still have a very slim hope of getting the top seed in the AFC at 6%.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 14 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
Dallas	W 13-10 vs. NO	57.4%	79.0%	21.6%
Baltimore	W 26-16 at ATL	51.2%	69.8%	18.6%
Seattle	W 43-16 vs. SF	76.1%	90.4%	14.3%
LA Chargers	W 33-30 at PIT	89.3%	96.5%	7.2%
Philadelphia	W 28-13 at WAS	18.0%	24.2%	6.2%

Even with tough remaining road games at Kansas City and at the Chargers, Baltimore is in a great position to make the playoffs after three straight wins. After missing the playoffs the past three years, a playoff invite could be enough to save head coach John Harbaugh’s job.

Seattle has a 90% chance to make the playoffs even before this week’s big matchup vs. Minnesota. There’s still some work to do, but three of the Seahawks’ final four games are at home, and they have the most favorable upcoming schedule of the NFC Wild Card contenders.

Philadelphia is at least still in the playoff picture after beating Washington on Monday night. However, the reigning Super Bowl champs have the toughest remaining schedule in football, including games at Dallas, at the Rams, and vs. Houston.

Enjoy NFL Week 14, and if you’re in an pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.