NFL Week 7 Rankings + Projections Update: How ‘Bout Them Cowboys?

October 18, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 7 Rankings and Projections

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 7 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured rankings-shifting wins by the Cowboys, Chargers, and Ravens.

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NFL Week 7 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 7. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Dallas	NFC East	19	11	-0.8	1.1	1.9
LA Chargers	AFC West	13	8	1.1	2.5	1.4
Seattle	NFC West	16	10	0.2	1.5	1.3
Baltimore	AFC North	6	4	3.6	4.7	1.1
Philadelphia	NFC East	9	7	1.8	2.9	1.1

The Cowboys had a surprise 40-7 home win over Jacksonville, despite the Jags having a 0.3-point advantage in the game according to our ratings last week. The decisive win vaulted the Cowboys up the ratings and eight spots up in our rankings.

The Chargers entered the season as the Vegas favorites in the AFC West. After yet another slow start this season, they seem be getting on track, most recently after a 38-14 blowout win at Cleveland.

Seattle appears to be righting the ship with three wins in the last four weeks. The Seahawks had no problem dismantling the Raiders 27-3 in London on Sunday, and their now No. 10 ranking is the highest they’ve been ranked all season.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 7 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 7:

Team	Division	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Dallas	NFC East	7.3	8.3	1.0
LA Chargers	AFC West	8.7	9.6	0.9
Baltimore	AFC North	9.3	10.1	0.8
Philadelphia	NFC East	7.8	8.6	0.8
Seattle	NFC West	7.8	8.5	0.7

Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has a little less heat on him this week. Now in his ninth season leading Dallas, Garrett is hoping to finish with a winning record for only the fourth time, but the Cowboys still have some ground to cover with a current projection of 8.3 wins.

The Ravens defense has been tops in the league this season in terms of points and yards allowed, and a 21-0 win at Tennessee on Sunday increased their win projection by nearly a full win. Baltimore entered the game as only 1.5-point favorites according to our predictive ratings.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 7 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Baltimore	AFC North	31.6%	47.9%	16.3%
Houston	AFC South	19.2%	32.9%	13.7%
LA Chargers	AFC West	10.9%	19.2%	8.3%
Dallas	NFC East	24.0%	31.1%	7.1%
Minnesota	NFC North	27.1%	34.1%	7.0%

The Ravens got a nice boost in the AFC North, not only netting a big win but also seeing the division-rival Bengals and Browns lose. Baltimore’s 47.9% division win odds are the fifth best of any projected division winner. Week 7 could be another critical week in the division, with the Ravens hosting New Orleans and Cincinnati traveling to Kansas City.

Houston suddenly looks like they have a shot in an AFC South division that’s looking quite weak once again. The Texans have won three straight games after their 0-3 start to the season and barely trail the disappointing-so-far Jaguars. The two division foes will play in Jacksonville this week.

The Vikings slightly trail Chicago in the NFC North division winner odds after a big win and the Bears’ overtime loss at Miami. Minnesota’s odds nearly saw an even bigger increase until Aaron Rodgers and the Packers pulled off yet another miraculous comeback vs. San Francisco on Monday night.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 7 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
LA Chargers	AFC West	45.5%	61.2%	15.7%
Baltimore	AFC North	58.5%	73.6%	15.1%
Dallas	NFC East	29.2%	42.0%	12.8%
Pittsburgh	AFC North	44.7%	57.0%	12.3%
Seattle	NFC West	31.1%	42.7%	11.6%

The Chargers look to be salvaging their season, now sitting at 4-2 with the fourth best odds to make the playoffs in the AFC. Their only losses have come against conference leaders Kansas City and the LA Rams. Still, the Chargers are not shoo-ins to make the playoffs with the 12th toughest remaining schedule, including games at Seattle, at Pittsburgh, vs. Cincinnati, at Kansas City, and vs. Baltimore still to come.

After a similarly slow 1-2-1 start, the Steelers now have favorable odds to make the playoffs for the fifth straight year. Pittsburgh has won consecutive games heading into their bye week, though they still have the fifth toughest future schedule in the league.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 7, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 7 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.