September 20, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman
In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 3 rankings and predictions changes, after a Week 2 that featured some big upsets and intriguing division matchups.
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Here are biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 3. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:
Team | Division | Old Rank | New Rank | Old Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA Rams | NFC West | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 1.7 |
Indianapolis | AFC South | 30 | 28 | -4.3 | -2.6 | 1.7 |
Cincinnati | AFC North | 16 | 13 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Miami | AFC East | 28 | 24 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 1.0 |
Jacksonville | AFC South | 10 | 8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
Already ranked No. 1 last week, the Rams also saw the biggest rating increase this week after a 34-0 demolition of the Cardinals. LAR’s predictive rating now stands 2.8 points ahead of the next highest ranked team, New England.
(It’s worth noting that despite New England’s 1-1 record and road loss to Jacksonville last week, smart data-driven ratings are careful not to overreact to very early season games. For example, the Patriots made the Super Bowl last year, but started out 2-2.)
The Colts also took a big step forward with a 21-9 upset win at Washington. Indianapolis also got a secondary boost after the team they lost to in Week 1, Cincinnati, had a better-than-expected win vs. Baltimore on Thursday night.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 3:
Team | Division | Old Proj Wins | New Proj Wins | Proj Wins Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Indianapolis | AFC South | 5.9 | 7.2 | 1.3 |
Miami | AFC East | 7.6 | 8.6 | 1.0 |
Kansas City | AFC West | 8.9 | 9.9 | 1.0 |
Cincinnati | AFC North | 8.3 | 9.2 | 0.9 |
Jacksonville | AFC South | 9.4 | 10.3 | 0.9 |
With an unexpected win at Washington, Capt. Andrew Luck’s Colts battalion sees the biggest increase in expected season wins. The Colts still look out of the playoff picture with a projection of 7.2 wins, however.
Miami and Kansas City also had projection increases of more than a win after the Dolphins won at the Jets and the Chiefs won at Pittsburgh. Both teams are sitting pretty at 2-0 after two weeks of the regular season.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
Team | Division | Old Div Win Odds | New Div Win Odds | Odds Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati | AFC North | 20.0% | 37.9% | 17.9% |
LA Rams | NFC West | 70.9% | 85.1% | 14.2% |
Miami | AFC East | 10.9% | 24.7% | 13.8% |
Dallas | NFC East | 13.9% | 24.6% | 10.7% |
Kansas City | AFC West | 43.4% | 54.0% | 10.6% |
The two biggest increases this week, predictably, come from teams that had big division wins. Cincinnati took down the Ravens to move to 2-0. Coupled with a Steelers loss, the Bengals are now the surprising favorites in the AFC North.
The Rams blew out Arizona in Week 2, by a margin even greater than expected, but the impressive win coupled with Seattle’s loss at Chicago put LAR strongly in the driver’s seat in the NFC West. Currently with 85% odds to win the division, the Rams have an opportunity to lock up the NFC West pretty early this year if this trend continues.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
Team | Division | Old Playoffs Odds | New Playoffs Odds | Odds Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Miami | AFC East | 28.1% | 43.9% | 15.8% |
Cincinnati | AFC North | 39.4% | 55.0% | 15.6% |
Kansas City | AFC West | 54.8% | 68.6% | 13.8% |
Jacksonville | AFC South | 60.5% | 72.2% | 11.7% |
Tampa Bay | NFC South | 27.6% | 39.3% | 11.7% |
Miami won a Wild Card spot in 2016 and are starting to look like a more formidable team in the AFC, now with the sixth best odds in the conference to make the playoffs after defeating the Jets on the road. Their schedule strength (or lack thereof) is also a contributing factor here, as it’s the third easiest in the NFL the rest of the way.
After an upset win over Pittsburgh, Kansas City now has a better than 2-in-3 chance to make the playoffs. With the Chargers and Steelers out of the way, the Chiefs also have the 10th easiest remaining schedule.
See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.
Enjoy NFL Week 3, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 3 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
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