Preseason Bracketology: 2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket

The NCAA basketball season tips off in just 3 days, and we can’t wait to get started. To whet your appetite for the upcoming season, here are our projected #1 seeds in the 2018 NCAA tournament:

  • Arizona (32% chance)
  • Duke (30% chance)
  • Wichita State (31% chance)
  • Michigan State (28% chance)

The four teams above probably aren’t a big shock. They’re the top four teams in our preseason ratings. However, the order is different: Duke is our preseason #1 team, while Arizona is #2.

Why do we have Arizona and Wichita State with a better chance at a #1 seed than Duke? Mainly because the Pac-12 and AAC are weaker than the ACC. Let’s look at Arizona vs. Duke in more detail to illustrate why this makes a difference.

Duke and Arizona have almost identical preseason ratings. Due to their easier conference, however, Arizona is less likely to stumble during league play. If both teams play at the same level this season, Arizona’s resume is going to look cleaner. They’ll have fewer losses, and will be more likely to nab a regular season title, conference tournament title, or both.

Here are highlights of our season projections for both teams. (Click the team name for more details.)

Arizona:

  • 25-4 overall
  • 15-3 Pac-12
  • 61% chance of winning the Pac-12 regular season
  • 45% chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament
  • 33% chance of winning the regular season and tournament titles

Duke:

  • 24-5 overall
  • 14-4 ACC
  • 38% chance of winning the Pac-12 regular season
  • 29% chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament
  • 16% chance of winning the regular season and tournament titles

[Technical notes … 1) The overall record doesn’t include any games in early season tournaments where the opponent isn’t known yet. 2) The chance of winning both the regular season and tournament titles in a conference is higher the value you get by simply multiplying the chance of each happening, because the two events aren’t independent. Winning the regular season title results in an easier path during the tournament, plus it’s a signal that the team performed well, and is probably nearer to the top end of our projected rating range for them than the bottom.]

The selection committee will likely think the ACC is a better conference. But they’ll still probably give Arizona the top spot over Duke if Arizona sweeps the regular season and tournament titles, and Duke doesn’t … especially if Arizona has a couple fewer losses. (See: Villanova as the overall #1 seed for the 2017 tournament.)

Of course, we have more than just #1 seeds. On to the bracket!

Preseason Bracketology: 2018 Projected NCAA Tournament Bracket

(click to enlarge)

Preseason Bracketology 2018 NCAA Tournament bracket: 1 seeds: Arizona, Duke, Wichita State, and Michigan State.

Projected 2018 NCAA Tournament bracket.

[Note: We’re not worried about following the NCAA’s bracketing rules here. We know that, for example, Florida shouldn’t potentially play Arkansas in the second round. Our goal here is to show expected seed lines for each team, and give an idea of the rough quality of opponent they might face in each round. Trying to predict actual bracket matchups at this point is silly.]

For details on how this bracket was created, see our original Madness Strikes November blog post. That post goes into more detail, but the basic idea is:

  1. Simulate the regular season
  2. Seed & play out conference tournaments
  3. Simulate NCAA tournament selection and seeding

For that last step, we use a model trained on historical NCAA Selection Committee decisions. Put another way, this model uses relevant historical data not to predict how the NCAA Selection Committee should select and seed teams, but rather to predict how it actually will select and seed teams. Sometimes the Committee emphasizes things that aren’t necessarily tied to team quality, and our model takes that into account.

Preseason Bracketology 2018: Odds For All 351 Teams

Our selection & seeding model doesn’t directly produce the single bracket you see above. Its output is actually a set of odds describing each team’s chance to make the NCAA tournament, and to earn each specific seed (among other info). The bracket is created at the end, based on those odds.

Here are our official 2018 NCAA Tournament preseason projected bracketology odds for every team. Bookmark this page for later, so you can come back and congratulate us on getting every single team correct. 😉

For a sortable table of similar odds that we update daily, check out our NCAA Bracketology detail page.

And, even cooler, to see projected round by round NCAA Tournament advancement odds based on our simulated brackets, check out our NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions.

TR Bracket SeedTeamBidAutoAt LargeAvg Seed If In1-4 Seed1 Seed
1Arizona96%45%52%2.977%32%
1Wichita St96%44%53%376%31%
1Duke95%29%66%375%30%
1Michigan St90%30%59%3.365%28%
2Villanova89%30%59%3.860%19%
2Kentucky87%23%65%456%19%
2Florida85%24%60%3.955%18%
2Purdue80%19%61%4.248%16%
3Cincinnati86%28%58%4.450%14%
3Kansas82%22%60%4.251%16%
3N Carolina81%15%66%4.545%11%
3W Virginia73%20%52%4.440%11%
4St Marys92%42%50%5.145%8%
4Louisville81%13%68%4.744%12%
4USC80%18%62%540%9%
4Virginia76%12%65%537%8%
5Gonzaga87%40%47%5.339%11%
5Xavier74%16%58%5.234%8%
5Baylor64%13%51%5.329%6%
5TX Christian61%11%50%5.327%6%
6Miami (FL)70%10%60%5.628%4%
6Notre Dame68%10%58%5.528%5%
6Seton Hall68%14%55%5.629%6%
6Minnesota62%11%51%5.228%7%
7Alabama67%10%57%5.826%5%
7Providence64%13%52%5.726%5%
7Oregon63%13%50%5.824%5%
7Northwestern50%7%43%6.117%3%
8UCLA66%12%54%6.124%4%
8Texas48%8%40%6.215%2%
8Wisconsin48%7%41%6.315%3%
8Iowa39%6%33%6.311%2%
9Creighton50%8%42%6.316%3%
9Butler46%8%38%6.414%2%
9Texas A&M46%7%39%6.613%2%
9Michigan42%6%36%6.512%2%
10S Methodist56%10%46%6.715%2%
10Vanderbilt46%6%39%6.613%2%
10Arkansas44%6%38%6.712%2%
10Missouri40%5%34%6.910%1%
11Rhode Island76%33%44%6.722%3%
11San Diego St55%24%30%8.85%0%
11Maryland49%5%44%6.713%2%
11Mississippi43%5%38%6.911%1%
11Indiana39%5%34%79%1%
11Clemson38%3%35%7.57%0%
12Bucknell74%64%11%10.13%0%
12LA Tech52%33%18%10.42%0%
12Col Charlestn51%31%20%10.12%0%
12Loyola-Chi42%25%16%10.61%0%
13Belmont53%44%9%11.31%0%
13N Mex State51%41%10%11.41%0%
13Princeton36%25%11%11.50%0%
13LA Lafayette35%23%12%11.40%0%
14Vermont59%54%5%11.80%0%
14Oakland46%37%8%11.61%0%
14Iona46%36%11%11.80%0%
14E Tenn St30%23%7%120%0%
15Fla Gulf Cst50%48%2%130%0%
15NC-Asheville44%41%2%13.20%0%
15S Dakota St28%24%4%12.90%0%
15Ohio21%16%5%12.40%0%
16TX Southern39%39%0%15.70%0%
16UC Irvine35%33%2%140%0%
16NC Central35%35%0%15.50%0%
16Ste F Austin31%30%1%14.50%0%
16Mt St Marys20%20%0%15.60%0%
16Montana19%18%0%14.40%0%
Boise State47%19%28%9.24%0%
VCU44%18%26%8.26%1%
BYU41%10%31%9.23%0%
Lipscomb41%39%2%13.40%0%
St Bonavent40%13%27%9.33%0%
Nevada40%16%25%9.82%0%
Central FL39%6%33%8.15%0%
Middle Tenn39%24%15%11.30%0%
Oklahoma36%6%30%6.98%1%
Stanford36%5%32%8.15%0%
Fresno St36%14%22%9.92%0%
Harvard36%25%11%11.70%0%
TX-Arlington35%23%12%11.21%0%
St Johns34%5%29%7.56%1%
Iowa State33%6%27%6.69%1%
Wake Forest31%2%29%8.14%0%
Albany31%28%3%12.90%0%
Kansas St29%5%24%6.67%1%
Florida St29%3%27%7.26%1%
Yale29%21%8%120%0%
Oklahoma St28%5%22%6.57%1%
Auburn28%3%25%7.84%0%
Houston28%4%24%8.62%0%
Dayton28%8%20%9.91%0%
Marquette27%4%23%7.55%1%
S Carolina27%3%24%84%0%
Georgia26%3%23%7.84%0%
Utah26%4%22%8.23%0%
Mercer26%22%4%12.30%0%
N Iowa25%15%10%11.50%0%
Elon25%15%10%11.70%0%
Murray St25%22%3%13.10%0%
Tennessee24%3%21%83%0%
NC-Wilmgton24%14%10%11.60%0%
Illinois St24%14%10%11.80%0%
Furman24%19%6%12.30%0%
Monmouth23%18%5%13.20%0%
Missouri St22%13%8%11.70%0%
GA Southern22%14%8%12.30%0%
Grand Canyon22%21%1%13.50%0%
U Penn22%21%2%13.60%0%
Temple21%2%18%9.81%0%
St Josephs21%7%14%10.50%0%
Old Dominion21%16%5%12.50%0%
N Kentucky21%17%4%13.10%0%
Davidson20%6%14%10.80%0%
Texas Tech19%4%16%74%1%
San Fransco19%5%14%10.41%0%
Wyoming19%8%12%10.81%0%
Towson19%12%7%120%0%
Georgia St19%12%6%12.50%0%
Samford19%17%3%12.90%0%
CS Bakersfld19%16%3%13.60%0%
Denver19%17%2%13.70%0%
Winthrop19%19%1%14.20%0%
Weber State19%18%1%14.30%0%
Southern19%19%0%15.90%0%
Tulsa18%3%15%9.21%0%
IPFW18%16%2%13.70%0%
South Dakota18%17%1%13.80%0%
Utah Val St18%16%2%13.80%0%
UCSB18%18%0%14.90%0%
St Fran (PA)18%18%0%15.60%0%
Ohio State17%2%15%7.83%0%
Penn State17%2%15%82%0%
Connecticut17%2%15%9.51%0%
Toledo17%12%5%12.70%0%
N Dakota St17%15%2%13.70%0%
Hampton17%17%0%15.80%0%
Miss State16%2%14%7.82%0%
W Michigan16%12%4%12.80%0%
Ball State16%12%4%130%0%
Montana St16%15%1%14.50%0%
Hawaii16%16%0%150%0%
GA Tech15%1%13%7.62%0%
VA Tech15%1%14%8.12%0%
Syracuse15%1%14%9.11%0%
E Michigan15%11%4%12.90%0%
Buffalo15%11%4%130%0%
Idaho15%15%1%14.60%0%
F Dickinson15%15%0%15.60%0%
Lamar14%14%0%15.10%0%
Alcorn State14%14%0%160%0%
E Washingtn13%12%0%14.80%0%
Norfolk St13%13%0%15.90%0%
Richmond12%4%9%11.10%0%
Northeastrn12%7%4%12.70%0%
Hofstra12%8%4%12.70%0%
Valparaiso12%8%4%12.80%0%
Kent State12%9%3%13.30%0%
Gard-Webb12%12%0%14.70%0%
TX A&M-CC12%12%0%15.20%0%
LIU-Brooklyn12%12%0%15.70%0%
UNLV11%9%2%13.10%0%
Akron11%9%2%13.10%0%
Liberty11%11%0%14.70%0%
SE Louisiana11%11%0%15.50%0%
Jackson St11%11%0%160%0%
Illinois10%1%9%9.11%0%
S Illinois10%7%3%12.80%0%
Arkansas St10%8%3%13.20%0%
Troy10%7%2%13.40%0%
Lehigh10%8%2%13.50%0%
NC-Grnsboro10%8%1%13.80%0%
Wright State10%8%1%140%0%
Jksnville St10%9%1%140%0%
Sam Hous St10%10%0%15.30%0%
New Mexico9%4%5%120%0%
Bradley9%7%2%13.10%0%
TX El Paso9%7%2%13.40%0%
Wofford9%8%1%13.90%0%
St Peters9%8%1%14.50%0%
Siena9%9%0%15.40%0%
Bryant9%9%0%15.80%0%
Wagner9%9%0%15.80%0%
Morgan St9%9%0%160%0%
La Salle8%3%5%11.60%0%
Wm & Mary8%5%3%13.20%0%
UAB8%6%1%13.60%0%
Cleveland St8%7%1%14.40%0%
Abilene Christian8%8%0%15.40%0%
Lg Beach St8%8%0%15.40%0%
UC Davis8%8%0%15.50%0%
Sacred Hrt8%8%0%15.80%0%
Prairie View8%8%0%160%0%
California7%1%6%9.80%0%
Colorado7%1%7%10.40%0%
Evansville7%5%2%13.10%0%
Navy7%7%1%13.90%0%
IL-Chicago7%7%1%14.40%0%
Stony Brook7%6%0%14.60%0%
Niagara7%6%1%14.60%0%
Manhattan7%6%0%14.70%0%
Neb Omaha7%6%0%14.90%0%
N Colorado7%7%0%15.10%0%
Radford7%7%0%15.10%0%
Georgetown6%2%4%8.10%0%
Boston Col6%0%6%90%0%
U Mass6%3%3%11.40%0%
Colorado St6%3%3%12.20%0%
LA Monroe6%4%2%13.70%0%
Colgate6%5%1%140%0%
E Kentucky6%6%1%14.30%0%
TN State6%5%1%14.40%0%
WI-Milwkee6%6%1%14.60%0%
Detroit6%5%1%14.60%0%
IUPUI6%5%0%14.70%0%
Canisius6%6%0%14.80%0%
North Dakota6%6%0%15.20%0%
CS Fullerton6%6%0%15.60%0%
Rob Morris6%6%0%15.90%0%
NC A&T6%6%0%160%0%
Maryland ES6%6%0%160%0%
LSU5%0%5%9.40%0%
Oregon St5%1%5%100%0%
Arizona St5%1%5%10.10%0%
Utah State5%2%3%12.50%0%
Boston U5%5%1%14.10%0%
TN Tech5%4%1%14.40%0%
N Hampshire5%5%0%14.60%0%
Maryland BC5%5%0%14.70%0%
Fairfield5%5%0%14.70%0%
SC Upstate5%5%0%15.30%0%
Campbell5%5%0%15.30%0%
Portland St5%5%0%15.40%0%
Incarnate Word5%5%0%15.60%0%
Cal Poly5%5%0%15.70%0%
UC Riverside5%5%0%15.70%0%
Alabama St5%5%0%160%0%
Nebraska4%0%3%9.40%0%
Santa Clara4%1%3%11.60%0%
Geo Wshgtn4%2%2%11.80%0%
Saint Louis4%1%2%11.80%0%
Pacific4%1%3%12.20%0%
Indiana St4%3%1%13.70%0%
Marshall4%3%1%140%0%
Columbia4%4%0%14.20%0%
Coastal Car4%3%1%14.30%0%
W Kentucky4%3%1%14.30%0%
Army4%4%0%14.40%0%
WI-Grn Bay4%4%0%14.90%0%
TN Martin4%4%0%14.90%0%
Rider4%4%0%150%0%
High Point4%4%0%15.40%0%
New Orleans4%4%0%15.70%0%
S Car State4%4%0%160%0%
Geo Mason3%1%2%11.80%0%
San Diego3%1%2%12.30%0%
Drake3%3%1%140%0%
James Mad3%2%1%14.10%0%
Drexel3%3%0%14.20%0%
Texas State3%2%0%14.50%0%
Cornell3%2%0%14.50%0%
Central Mich3%3%1%14.50%0%
American3%3%0%14.60%0%
Loyola-MD3%3%0%14.60%0%
Chattanooga3%3%0%14.70%0%
Charlotte3%3%0%14.70%0%
Youngs St3%3%0%15.20%0%
Oral Roberts3%3%0%15.40%0%
Seattle3%3%0%15.50%0%
Florida A&M3%3%0%160%0%
Ark Pine Bl3%3%0%160%0%
DePaul2%0%2%9.80%0%
Washington2%0%2%10.50%0%
Memphis2%0%2%10.90%0%
Air Force2%1%1%13.30%0%
Delaware2%1%0%14.40%0%
Bowling Grn2%2%0%14.50%0%
Dartmouth2%1%0%14.70%0%
App State2%2%0%14.70%0%
N Illinois2%2%0%14.70%0%
Rice2%1%0%14.90%0%
Holy Cross2%1%0%14.90%0%
Morehead St2%2%0%150%0%
E Illinois2%2%0%15.10%0%
Austin Peay2%1%0%15.30%0%
Charl South2%2%0%15.50%0%
NJIT2%2%0%15.70%0%
Kennesaw St2%2%0%15.70%0%
TX-Pan Am2%2%0%15.70%0%
Jacksonville2%2%0%15.70%0%
NW State2%2%0%15.80%0%
Houston Bap2%2%0%15.90%0%
St Fran (NY)2%2%0%15.90%0%
Cal St Nrdge2%2%0%15.90%0%
Delaware St2%2%0%160%0%
Beth-Cook2%2%0%160%0%
Howard2%2%0%160%0%
NC State1%0%1%9.30%0%
Rutgers1%0%1%9.40%0%
Pittsburgh1%0%1%10.80%0%
E Carolina1%0%1%110%0%
Fordham1%1%0%12.80%0%
Duquesne1%0%0%13.70%0%
Brown1%1%0%150%0%
AR Lit Rock1%1%0%15.20%0%
S Alabama1%1%0%15.20%0%
Fla Atlantic1%1%0%15.20%0%
Miami (OH)1%1%0%15.20%0%
S Mississippi1%1%0%15.20%0%
TX-San Ant1%1%0%15.30%0%
W Carolina1%1%0%15.30%0%
Massachusetts Lowell1%1%0%15.50%0%
Binghamton1%1%0%15.50%0%
UMKC1%1%0%15.70%0%
W Illinois1%1%0%15.70%0%
Marist1%1%0%15.70%0%
N Florida1%1%0%15.80%0%
N Arizona1%1%0%15.80%0%
Sac State1%1%0%15.80%0%
Quinnipiac1%1%0%15.80%0%
McNeese St1%1%0%15.90%0%
Nicholls St1%1%0%15.90%0%
Idaho State1%1%0%15.90%0%
Stetson1%1%0%15.90%0%
Central Ark1%1%0%160%0%
Coppin State1%1%0%160%0%
Miss Val St1%1%0%160%0%
Central Conn1%1%0%160%0%
Savannah St0%0%0%00%0%
SE Missouri0%0%0%00%0%
Grambling St0%0%0%00%0%
Alab A&M0%0%0%00%0%
S Florida0%0%0%100%0%
Tulane0%0%0%12.10%0%
Wash State0%0%0%12.30%0%
Loyola Mymt0%0%0%13.90%0%
Portland0%0%0%14.20%0%
San Jose St0%0%0%14.90%0%
Pepperdine0%0%0%15.30%0%
Lafayette0%0%0%15.40%0%
North Texas0%0%0%15.60%0%
SIU Edward0%0%0%15.70%0%
VA Military0%0%0%15.70%0%
Hartford0%0%0%15.80%0%
Citadel0%0%0%15.80%0%
Florida Intl0%0%0%15.90%0%
S Utah0%0%0%15.90%0%
Presbyterian0%0%0%160%0%
Longwood0%0%0%160%0%
Maine0%0%0%160%0%
Chicago St0%0%0%160%0%

Finally, here’s a quick reminder. If you haven’t checked out the rest of our projections, please do! They include: