2017-18 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings & Win Totals

We published our official 2017-2018 college basketball preseason ratings Friday, which means we now have full 2017-18 college basketball preseason projected standings for all teams, including:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every day throughout the season.

There’s a lot of info in the giant table below. You’ll find:

  • full conference standings projections
  • projected regular season records
  • conference regular season win odds
  • conference tournament win odds

But first, let’s check out a few highlights from our 2017-18 college basketball preseason projected standings.

Projection Highlights

First, our projected winners for the major conferences:

  • American: Wichita State (49%)
  • ACC: Duke (38%)
  • Big 12: Kansas (26%)
  • Big East: Villanova (38%)
  • Big Ten: Michigan State (40%)
  • Pac-12: Arizona (61%)
  • SEC: Florida (27%)

To most of you, the biggest surprise on that list is probably Florida. Kentucky is ranked #5 in the AP Poll and #4 in the Coaches Poll, while Florida is ranked 3 spots below them in both polls. However, the consensus of the preseason “computer” ratings we track has Florida ranked #8 on average, and Kentucky #10. Our own preseason ratings have Florida #6 and Kentucky #8. So the Gators are our SEC favorite, but the Wildcats are nipping at their heels with a 26% chance of an SEC regular season title.

Kansas being the Big 12 favorite, on the other hand, should come as a shock to no one. What may be surprising is that we give them only  26% shot to win the regular season. That’s the lowest of any major conference favorite, and it means there’s a 74% chance somebody other than Kansas finally wins the Big 12 regular season title this year.

The biggest favorite in any major conference this year is Arizona, with a 61% chance to win the Pac-12. We’re a little bit high on Arizona compared to the consensus 2017 college basketball preseason rankings that we track, and a little bit low on USC.

The Wildcats are one of only 4 teams that we project with a better than 50% chance to take home a regular season conference title:

  • 72% Bucknell (Patriot League)
  • 61% Arizona (Pac-12)
  • 57% Vermont (America East)
  • 55% Belmont (Ohio Valley)

On the other end of the spectrum is the MAC, where the favorite (Ohio) only has an 18% chance to win the regular season title. An impressive eight teams have at least an 8% chance at the MAC crown. It’s going to be a fun year in the MAC.

2017-18 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings

For a lot more info on any team, click their name to view their season projections page. Once there, be sure to check out the Bracketology link in Overview section of the Team Menu at the top of the page.

Need a refresher on what info you can find in our automated bracketology projections, and how we created them? Check out our original post Introducing Our New Algorithmic Bracketology Projections and our review of what’s in our NCAA tournament bracket prediction pages.

[Note: Overall regular season record projections account for only already-scheduled games, so will be missing some early season tournament games where opponents have yet to be determined.]

2017-2018 TeamRankings Preseason College Basketball Conference Projections
ACC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Duke14.04.023.65.437.6%28.8%
Louisville12.06.022.78.312.6%13.2%
N Carolina11.96.121.17.913.3%14.8%
Virginia11.76.320.68.410.4%11.6%
Miami (FL)11.76.320.27.810.8%10.0%
Notre Dame11.56.520.88.29.2%10.1%
Clemson9.09.016.511.52.2%2.9%
Florida St8.79.318.111.91.5%2.6%
Wake Forest8.59.516.611.41.0%2.0%
GA Tech7.510.517.413.60.7%1.4%
VA Tech7.110.916.413.60.4%1.2%
Syracuse7.110.915.415.60.3%0.6%
Boston Col6.211.815.114.90.2%0.4%
NC State4.513.513.115.90.0%0.1%
Pittsburgh3.714.311.118.90.0%0.0%
America East Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Albany11.74.321.29.827.4%27.7%
Vermont13.03.020.48.657.4%53.7%
Stony Brook8.97.114.515.55.3%6.2%
N Hampshire8.67.415.914.14.4%5.1%
Maryland BC8.47.614.413.63.9%4.6%
Binghamton6.49.612.717.30.8%1.1%
Massachusetts Lowell6.39.712.716.30.6%1.1%
Hartford5.410.610.818.20.3%0.5%
Maine3.412.67.323.70.0%0.1%
American Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Wichita St14.63.423.34.749.0%43.7%
Cincinnati13.74.322.86.230.3%28.4%
S Methodist11.66.420.88.28.8%10.2%
Central FL10.47.618.39.73.8%5.8%
Houston10.17.917.710.33.3%4.3%
Tulsa9.88.217.110.92.4%2.7%
Temple8.79.314.014.01.1%2.3%
Connecticut8.49.614.814.21.1%2.0%
Memphis6.511.514.017.00.1%0.3%
E Carolina6.311.714.814.20.1%0.2%
Tulane4.613.411.118.90.0%0.0%
S Florida3.214.810.021.00.0%0.0%
Atlantic 10 Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Rhode Island13.54.520.67.438.0%32.5%
VCU12.45.620.18.922.5%17.9%
St Bonavent11.36.719.010.011.9%13.1%
St Josephs10.37.715.612.46.4%7.5%
Dayton10.27.816.611.46.8%8.2%
Davidson9.88.214.612.45.1%6.3%
Richmond8.99.114.113.92.6%3.7%
La Salle8.19.912.816.22.1%2.6%
U Mass8.19.915.215.81.5%2.7%
Geo Wshgtn7.610.413.716.31.2%1.8%
Saint Louis7.210.814.215.80.7%1.4%
Geo Mason6.911.113.516.50.8%1.3%
Fordham6.012.012.617.40.2%0.6%
Duquesne5.712.314.816.20.2%0.4%
Atlantic Sun Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Fla Gulf Cst11.12.922.58.549.8%47.7%
Lipscomb10.73.319.010.040.3%39.3%
SC Upstate6.97.113.716.33.9%4.8%
NJIT5.98.112.316.71.5%2.2%
Jacksonville5.98.114.316.71.7%2.2%
Kennesaw St5.48.610.218.81.3%1.6%
N Florida5.28.810.220.80.9%1.2%
Stetson4.99.112.918.10.7%1.0%
Big 12 Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Kansas11.46.622.58.525.7%21.5%
W Virginia11.26.820.98.123.5%20.5%
Baylor9.98.119.510.513.4%13.2%
TX Christian9.58.519.810.210.6%10.8%
Texas8.79.317.111.96.9%7.8%
Oklahoma8.29.815.013.04.7%5.9%
Iowa State8.19.916.511.54.8%5.9%
Oklahoma St8.010.017.312.74.2%5.4%
Kansas St7.810.217.812.24.0%5.3%
Texas Tech7.110.916.913.12.1%3.5%
Big East Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Villanova12.85.222.56.538.0%30.5%
Xavier11.16.921.18.916.4%16.0%
Seton Hall10.67.420.29.813.3%13.6%
Providence10.47.620.39.712.2%12.6%
Butler9.38.717.811.26.5%8.1%
Creighton9.38.718.911.16.5%8.2%
St Johns8.19.916.912.13.4%4.9%
Marquette7.910.115.212.82.9%4.2%
Georgetown6.111.916.013.00.6%1.5%
DePaul4.413.610.617.40.2%0.5%
Big Sky Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Weber State12.35.718.89.222.6%18.4%
Montana12.06.016.311.720.5%18.5%
Idaho11.66.417.410.615.8%14.6%
Montana St11.56.518.111.914.9%15.0%
E Washingtn11.07.016.213.812.7%12.2%
N Colorado9.18.916.314.74.7%7.1%
North Dakota8.89.213.916.14.3%6.0%
Portland St8.49.613.415.63.1%4.5%
Sac State6.411.610.918.10.7%1.4%
N Arizona6.211.89.820.20.5%1.1%
Idaho State5.712.39.819.20.2%0.6%
S Utah5.112.98.720.30.1%0.5%
Big South Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
NC-Asheville13.74.320.910.145.4%41.2%
Winthrop11.96.118.210.818.7%18.6%
Gard-Webb10.87.216.914.111.2%11.6%
Liberty10.77.317.110.910.0%10.7%
Radford9.78.314.515.55.9%6.7%
Campbell9.09.015.814.24.1%4.8%
High Point8.79.314.214.82.9%3.8%
Charl South7.810.213.215.81.7%2.4%
Longwood4.913.19.721.30.2%0.3%
Presbyterian2.815.27.322.70.0%0.0%
Big Ten Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Michigan St13.64.423.65.440.0%30.1%
Purdue12.25.821.77.318.3%18.6%
Minnesota10.97.121.49.69.8%11.0%
Northwestern10.08.019.810.25.6%7.1%
Wisconsin9.98.119.110.96.0%7.0%
Iowa9.78.318.910.15.9%5.9%
Michigan9.68.418.310.74.3%6.1%
Indiana9.18.917.812.24.0%4.5%
Maryland9.09.019.110.93.7%5.1%
Ohio State7.710.316.112.91.1%1.7%
Penn State7.710.317.812.21.0%1.7%
Illinois6.211.815.615.40.3%0.6%
Nebraska5.812.212.816.20.1%0.4%
Rutgers4.413.614.316.70.0%0.1%
Big West Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
UC Irvine11.34.718.312.740.2%32.8%
UCSB9.86.216.712.319.3%18.1%
Hawaii9.46.616.510.516.7%16.0%
Lg Beach St7.98.112.617.46.9%8.3%
UC Davis7.68.413.115.95.9%7.5%
CS Fullerton7.18.910.615.43.8%5.5%
Cal Poly6.99.111.316.73.2%4.8%
UC Riverside6.69.412.117.93.0%4.5%
Cal St Nrdge5.510.511.117.91.2%2.3%
CAA Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Elon10.87.219.411.615.1%15.2%
NC-Wilmgton10.67.417.311.714.1%14.3%
Towson10.17.916.811.211.1%11.8%
Hofstra9.18.914.813.26.4%8.0%
Northeastrn9.09.014.615.45.9%7.4%
Wm & Mary8.29.814.114.93.7%5.3%
Drexel6.811.212.916.11.4%2.6%
James Mad6.811.213.216.81.4%2.5%
Delaware5.812.212.118.90.7%1.4%
CUSA Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
LA Tech14.04.022.26.840.0%33.3%
Middle Tenn13.14.918.39.724.3%24.4%
Old Dominion12.85.218.99.118.5%16.1%
TX El Paso10.77.316.210.85.4%6.6%
UAB10.17.917.811.24.1%6.5%
Charlotte9.18.914.114.92.3%3.0%
Marshall8.79.315.315.72.1%3.4%
W Kentucky8.49.613.515.51.6%2.9%
Rice8.39.713.916.10.7%1.4%
Fla Atlantic7.210.811.916.10.5%0.8%
TX-San Ant6.511.511.417.60.2%0.5%
S Mississippi6.311.712.818.20.2%0.6%
North Texas6.012.011.419.60.1%0.3%
Florida Intl5.013.010.920.10.0%0.2%
Horizon League Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Oakland13.44.621.39.749.4%37.4%
N Kentucky11.16.917.210.818.1%17.3%
Wright State9.18.916.214.86.7%8.3%
Cleveland St8.79.314.416.65.5%7.0%
IL-Chicago8.69.415.415.64.8%6.6%
WI-Milwkee8.49.614.816.24.2%5.8%
IUPUI8.19.913.615.43.6%5.3%
Detroit8.19.913.316.73.7%5.3%
WI-Grn Bay7.710.314.716.32.6%4.3%
Youngs St6.811.212.518.51.4%2.6%
Ivy Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Harvard9.54.516.710.329.0%24.8%
Princeton9.54.516.910.130.0%25.3%
Yale9.14.917.512.523.5%20.7%
U Penn7.86.215.111.910.9%20.8%
Columbia6.17.912.114.93.4%3.9%
Cornell5.58.511.715.31.8%2.5%
Dartmouth4.89.210.216.81.1%1.5%
Brown3.710.39.517.50.3%0.6%
MAAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Iona13.64.419.09.048.4%35.6%
Monmouth11.46.615.514.518.5%18.0%
St Peters9.98.114.713.37.6%8.4%
Manhattan9.18.913.213.85.2%6.4%
Niagara9.18.914.415.65.2%6.1%
Canisius8.99.114.716.34.7%5.8%
Fairfield8.89.213.415.64.1%5.0%
Rider8.39.712.616.43.1%4.1%
Siena8.010.012.019.02.3%8.8%
Marist6.111.99.117.90.6%0.9%
Quinnipiac5.812.29.418.60.3%0.8%
MAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Ohio11.16.918.19.918.3%15.9%
W Michigan10.47.617.211.813.2%12.1%
E Michigan10.47.618.912.112.5%11.4%
Buffalo10.37.716.312.711.9%11.2%
Toledo10.27.817.513.512.1%12.1%
Ball State10.17.917.113.911.0%11.8%
Kent State9.78.317.014.09.0%9.0%
Akron9.58.515.812.27.8%8.9%
Central Mich7.011.014.414.61.5%2.6%
N Illinois7.011.012.716.31.3%2.2%
Bowling Grn6.811.213.517.51.1%2.0%
Miami (OH)5.412.610.720.30.4%0.9%
MEAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
NC Central12.23.820.19.945.2%35.3%
Hampton10.35.716.613.415.1%16.8%
Norfolk St9.76.315.715.311.1%13.5%
Morgan St9.36.713.415.67.4%9.4%
Maryland ES8.27.811.518.54.8%6.0%
NC A&T8.17.913.017.04.4%5.9%
Savannah St7.98.110.619.44.4%0.0%
S Car State7.38.711.619.42.6%3.8%
Florida A&M7.09.09.222.81.7%2.6%
Howard6.39.79.121.91.0%2.1%
Beth-Cook6.29.810.720.31.0%1.8%
Delaware St6.010.09.321.70.8%1.8%
Coppin State5.610.46.724.30.6%1.2%
Mountain West Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
San Diego St12.65.419.67.429.8%24.3%
Boise State11.96.119.38.720.8%18.7%
Nevada11.46.620.012.016.8%15.5%
Fresno St11.26.820.19.915.7%14.1%
Wyoming9.68.417.211.86.8%7.9%
New Mexico8.69.415.114.93.2%3.8%
UNLV8.29.816.313.72.6%9.0%
Colorado St7.910.114.916.12.2%3.1%
Utah State7.710.314.316.71.6%2.4%
Air Force6.111.913.316.70.5%1.0%
San Jose St3.814.27.921.10.0%0.1%
MVC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Loyola-Chi11.96.120.49.631.3%25.4%
N Iowa10.57.516.411.616.9%15.3%
Missouri St10.17.917.611.414.2%13.4%
Illinois St10.17.915.212.813.4%13.6%
Valparaiso8.99.115.815.26.0%7.7%
S Illinois8.79.316.914.16.4%7.3%
Bradley8.39.715.014.04.7%6.5%
Evansville7.810.215.514.53.4%4.8%
Indiana St6.911.112.515.52.0%3.2%
Drake6.711.311.417.61.7%2.7%
Northeast Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Mt St Marys10.97.117.014.020.0%19.5%
St Fran (PA)10.77.315.213.818.3%17.7%
F Dickinson10.47.614.514.515.5%15.3%
LIU-Brooklyn9.88.216.414.612.2%12.1%
Bryant9.28.812.618.48.8%9.1%
Wagner9.18.913.915.18.6%8.6%
Sacred Hrt9.18.914.416.68.1%8.2%
Rob Morris8.59.512.019.06.0%6.3%
St Fran (NY)6.911.110.819.22.0%2.4%
Central Conn5.312.78.322.70.6%0.8%
Ohio Valley Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Belmont14.33.721.78.354.3%44.0%
Murray St12.55.519.89.220.3%22.3%
Jksnville St10.27.817.512.57.3%8.9%
E Kentucky9.58.516.014.03.9%5.6%
TN State9.38.714.714.34.0%5.0%
TN Martin9.18.915.415.63.4%4.2%
TN Tech8.89.214.215.83.1%4.2%
E Illinois7.810.212.816.21.4%2.3%
Morehead St7.310.711.917.10.9%1.6%
Austin Peay7.310.712.317.70.7%1.5%
SE Missouri6.711.311.518.50.5%0.0%
SIU Edward5.512.58.720.30.2%0.4%
Pac-12 Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Arizona15.22.825.23.860.9%44.6%
USC12.65.421.37.714.0%18.1%
Oregon12.06.021.97.111.0%13.3%
UCLA11.76.320.79.37.9%11.9%
Stanford9.98.117.711.32.8%4.7%
Utah9.48.616.611.42.1%3.8%
California7.210.814.814.20.4%1.0%
Colorado7.011.013.314.70.2%0.8%
Oregon St6.711.313.914.10.2%0.7%
Arizona St6.411.612.616.40.3%0.7%
Washington6.111.913.416.60.1%0.3%
Wash State3.814.29.218.80.0%0.0%
Patriot Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Bucknell15.03.022.58.571.8%63.9%
Lehigh10.08.015.313.76.7%7.9%
Navy9.68.416.914.15.1%6.5%
Colgate9.28.814.914.14.4%5.5%
Boston U9.09.014.214.84.1%4.8%
Army8.79.313.814.23.2%4.1%
Loyola-MD8.010.012.816.22.0%2.8%
American8.010.013.016.01.8%2.7%
Holy Cross7.011.010.317.70.9%1.4%
Lafayette5.512.59.219.80.3%0.5%
SEC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Florida12.35.721.67.427.0%24.1%
Kentucky12.25.822.78.326.3%22.7%
Alabama10.67.419.911.19.8%10.2%
Texas A&M9.78.318.111.97.0%7.3%
Vanderbilt9.48.618.311.75.8%6.3%
Arkansas9.48.617.411.65.5%5.8%
Mississippi9.18.918.411.64.6%4.9%
Missouri9.09.017.911.14.7%5.3%
Georgia8.39.715.612.42.7%3.3%
S Carolina7.910.116.112.91.7%2.7%
Auburn7.910.116.612.42.0%2.6%
Tennessee7.810.213.814.21.8%2.7%
Miss State7.110.918.112.91.1%1.7%
LSU5.112.912.115.90.2%0.4%
Southern Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
E Tenn St12.45.620.910.125.1%22.8%
Mercer12.35.719.39.723.6%21.7%
Furman11.96.119.411.619.5%18.5%
Samford11.66.419.511.516.2%16.5%
NC-Grnsboro9.98.117.913.17.4%8.4%
Wofford9.78.316.414.65.9%7.6%
Chattanooga7.910.114.215.81.9%3.0%
W Carolina6.211.89.920.10.4%1.1%
Citadel4.613.49.519.50.1%0.3%
VA Military3.414.67.621.40.0%0.1%
Southland Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Ste F Austin13.05.021.29.833.5%30.5%
SE Louisiana10.97.116.914.112.3%10.9%
Lamar10.97.117.912.112.8%13.8%
TX A&M-CC10.87.216.012.012.2%12.2%
Sam Hous St10.17.916.212.89.5%9.8%
Abilene Christian9.58.516.015.06.8%7.6%
Incarnate Word8.99.115.113.94.6%5.2%
New Orleans8.79.312.616.43.5%4.0%
Houston Bap7.610.411.518.51.4%1.9%
NW State7.510.512.017.01.5%1.8%
McNeese St6.911.111.517.51.1%1.2%
Nicholls St6.511.512.018.00.5%0.7%
Central Ark5.812.29.121.90.4%0.5%
Summit Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
S Dakota St9.05.018.410.627.0%24.4%
Denver8.25.816.811.218.0%17.2%
South Dakota8.15.919.411.617.1%16.6%
IPFW8.06.018.111.916.4%16.2%
N Dakota St7.96.116.212.814.7%14.7%
Neb Omaha6.27.811.917.14.6%6.4%
Oral Roberts5.09.010.919.11.8%3.2%
W Illinois3.610.410.616.40.4%1.2%
Sun Belt Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
LA Lafayette12.55.520.18.926.7%23.2%
TX-Arlington12.35.720.39.724.9%23.0%
GA Southern11.16.917.711.315.1%13.7%
Georgia St10.97.118.711.312.8%12.4%
Arkansas St9.78.317.113.97.1%7.7%
Troy9.58.517.413.65.7%7.1%
LA Monroe8.69.415.613.42.9%4.3%
Coastal Car8.39.713.714.32.2%3.2%
Texas State7.210.815.016.01.2%2.4%
App State7.110.911.717.30.9%1.6%
S Alabama5.612.412.317.70.2%0.7%
AR Lit Rock5.212.811.319.70.3%0.6%
SWAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
TX Southern13.64.414.916.147.6%39.2%
Southern11.46.615.515.517.6%19.0%
Alcorn State10.57.515.415.611.8%13.5%
Jackson St10.17.913.516.59.1%11.1%
Prairie View9.48.611.520.56.2%8.4%
Alabama St8.49.69.318.73.0%5.0%
Grambling St7.810.210.320.72.4%0.0%
Ark Pine Bl7.410.68.423.61.6%2.9%
Alab A&M6.111.96.823.20.4%0.0%
Miss Val St5.412.65.925.10.2%0.9%
WAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
N Mex State10.83.220.77.348.3%41.4%
Grand Canyon9.44.620.69.420.2%21.3%
CS Bakersfld8.85.215.711.314.3%15.6%
Utah Val St8.75.318.911.114.6%15.6%
Seattle5.78.314.815.21.5%2.9%
TX-Pan Am4.99.112.218.80.6%1.6%
UMKC4.89.210.718.30.5%1.4%
Chicago St2.911.16.024.00.1%0.3%
WCC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
St Marys15.12.923.94.145.6%41.7%
Gonzaga15.03.023.95.143.0%39.9%
BYU12.06.021.29.87.8%10.1%
San Fransco10.67.420.410.62.6%4.7%
Santa Clara8.39.715.312.70.5%1.3%
Pacific8.29.815.715.30.3%1.2%
San Diego7.510.514.715.30.3%0.8%
Loyola Mymt5.212.810.118.90.0%0.1%
Portland4.813.210.317.70.0%0.1%
Pepperdine3.514.57.421.60.0%0.0%