2017 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings

One of our 2017 New Years resolutions (along with cutting down on sweets, and taking more “walking meetings”) was to post our 2017 college basketball preseason rankings earlier this year. And … we’ve technically stuck to that one. Last year we got these up the Saturday before the season tipped off. This year they’re up on Friday!

Who Is #1?

Last year, Duke was the obvious preseason favorite. This year, a great case could be made for a few different teams:

  • Duke has one of the best recruiting classes of all time (more on this below), and a Hall of Fame coach
  • Arizona finished last season strong, returns preseason All-American Allonzo Trier, has a very good recruiting class by normal standards, and adds one of the more valuable 2017-18 transfers (Dylan Smith)
  • Wichita State brings essentially everybody back from a team that played like a top 5 team down the stretch last season. The Shockers have a combination of previous-season rating and returning production equaled by only one team in recent memory — the 2008-09 North Carolina team that won the national title. (Of course, that UNC team also featured a better class of incoming recruits than does this WSU team.)
  • Michigan State returns 3 freshmen (Bridges, Ward Winston) who all performed last year at levels that hint at borderline All-American production this season.

For our preseason projections, we rate them in the order listed above, with Duke as the #1 team. But there’s only a 0.6-point gap between #1 Duke and #4 Michigan State — meaning we’d favor Duke over Michigan State on a neutral court by less than a point. It’s essentially a 4-way toss up at the top.

Duke’s Great Recruiting Class

Some of you may be surprised with Duke’s high ranking, given all the talent and production they’ve lost from last season. They’re one of only 9 teams returning less than 20% of both their offensive and defensive production from last season. The others are Kentucky, Oregon, California, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, North Florida, Pepperdine, and Mississippi Valley State.

Of course, that number is mitigated by a couple factors:

  • A) That returning talent includes Grayson Allen.
  • B) They have the second best recruiting class in our database (which goes back to the 1998-99 season).

While not without hiccups, the overall performance of the other top rated classes has been very good:

#1: 2011-12 Kentucky … 38-2, national champs
#2: 2017-18 Duke … ???
#3: 2013-14 Kentucky … only an 8 seed, but lost in the title game
#4: 2013-14 Kansas … upset by Stanford in the second round … but they were missing Joel Embiid to injury, and obviously wouldn’t have been the #4 class without him
#5: 2014-15 Duke … 35-4, national champs
#6: 2016-17 Duke … upset in second round … 3 of the 4 main freshman missed several games, disappointing season overall, but still a #2 seed
#7: 2006-07 Ohio State … 35-4, lost in title game to Florida, which was one of the greatest teams in recent history
#8: 2005-06 Duke … 32-4, #1 seed, upset in Sweet 6
#9: 2009-10 Kentucky … 35-2, #1 seed, lost in Elite 8
#10: 2012-13 UCLA … 25-10, lost in first round

If Duke had actually returned a core of solid rotation players from last season, and added this class, they’d be the clear title favorite. As it stands, they’re still our #1, but by just a hair.

2017 College Basketball Preseason Rankings Method

To create our preseason rankings, we first establish a baseline prediction for a team, given their power ratings from recent years, and assuming an average amount of roster turnover. Then we make some adjustments based on how much value each team is returning on offense and defense, as well as the strength of their recruiting classes from the past few years, and the value of any transfers they’ve added this season. The result is our 2017 college basketball preseason rankings. For a more complete description, check out our blog post from four years ago.

As always, we’ve refit the model during the offseason, in order to take into account another year of data.

What Do We Use Them For?

The resulting ratings drive our preseason projections, and they serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses. (Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Below you’ll find a preseason top 25 comparison between TeamRankings, Ken Pomeroy, Dan Hanner/Sports Illustrated, the AP poll, and the ESPN Coaches poll. And at the end of the post you’ll see the full rankings and ratings for all 351 Division I teams.

Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every day throughout the season.

Ratings Accuracy

Before we get to the 2017 college basketball preseason rankings themselves, it’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner have compared our preseason ratings and/or projections with other stat-based prognosticators in past years. Our finish has been consistently good, though also consistently a bit behind Dan Hanner’s bottom-up, player-based projections. (Links below go to the comparison blog posts from Ken and Dan.)

Taking a few years of data into account, we feel we probably have the second best preseason ratings, behind Dan Hanner’s player lineup based projections, but ahead of Ken Pomeroy, ESPN, and human rankings.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems. We expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project 351 teams.

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:

The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system. It also shows the average rank, and a column indicating how far TR is from the consensus. (Positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse.) For teams receiving no votes in the polls, we used a rank of 50. Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.

TeamTRKPSIBTBPIAPCoachAVG
Arizona231211353.9
Duke163414114.3
Wichita St.34431784.3
Michigan St.4102113224.9
Villanova51592664.9
Kansas75763435.0
Florida6810710878.0
Kentucky8281219548.3
Cincinnati101168612139.4
West Virginia97111012111010.0
North Carolina1213181779912.1
Purdue111717114202114.4
Louisville131691431161616.4
Xavier1526151315171716.9
Virginia1493058272717.1
Notre Dame182216319141417.7
Miami FL2127122218131217.9
USC1912132042101118.1
Saint Mary's1730141516222219.4
Baylor1619192917242421.1
Gonzaga2020232624181921.4
TCU241424255293021.6
Seton Hall2328252126232324.1
Northwestern3018223429192024.6
Minnesota2236264021151525.0
Alabama2623212830262525.6
Texas A&M3215291938252626.3
Providence2525363527303330.1
UCLA2929206952211834.0
Oklahoma3621403337363534.0
Texas2837442451353736.6
Iowa State3734503820505039.9
Auburn6046331634505041.3
Texas Tech5233434122505041.6
Missouri4681392353312943.1
SMU3924637435434145.6
Virginia Tech6553426723323945.9
Vanderbilt4038597025505047.4
San Diego St.62714718105505057.6

Preseason Top 25 Comparison Highlights

A few points stick out:

  • FIVE different teams are ranked #1: Duke, Arizona, Wichita State, Michigan State, and Vilanova.
  • There are two top tiers of 3 teams each that are ahead of the pack, based on the consensus averages. The 3 teams in the top tier (Arizona, Duke, and Wichita State) all have an average rank of about 4. The 3 teams in the second tier (Michigan State, Villanova, and Kansas) all have an average rank of about 5. After that the average rank drops all the way down to 8 (Florida and Kentucky), 9 (Cincinnati), and 10 (West Virginia).
  • TeamRankings is the only “computer” ranking with Duke at #1, agreeing with the human voters. BPI, on the other hand, doesn’t even see Duke as a Top 10 team.
  • The computers all rank Wichita State higher than the humans. The Shockers are an interesting case. They probably don’t have as high of a ceiling as, say, Duke. But they have an extremely high floor. There are very few unknowns with this year’s WSU team. Because most analytical projections are designed to forecast the average rating they expect a team to have if the season is played out millions of times, that high floor boosts the Shockers’ rating. AP Poll an Coaches Poll voters, on the other hand, are probably paying a bit more attention to ceilings, and less to floors.
  • Our rankings have the highest correlation with the consensus, among the 39 teams listed here. Bart Torvik’s have the lowest. The rank order is: TeamRankings (0.944), Dan Hanner/SI (0.922), AP Poll (0.920), Coaches Poll (0.918), Ken Pomeroy (0.842), BPI (0.723), Bart Torvik (0.722).
  • BPI has some very big outliers in their Top 10. BPI has the most optimistic projection by far for Purdue (BPI #4, average #14) and TCU (BPI #5, average #22). They’re also at least 5 spots higher than the consensus on North Carolina, Virginia, and Notre Dame. BPI is also the only ranking not to have Arizona, Duke, or Michigan State in the top 10.
  • Compared to the crowd, we’re most pessimistic about Auburn, who we rank 10 to 44 spots lower than other projections. We suspect this may be due to our ranking being published later than the others, though. Key players Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy have been caught up in the ongoing FBI investigation into NCAA corruption, and are temporarily suspended. We’re treating them as if they’ll miss the season, while other rankings may be assuming they’ll play.
  • Among teams not at the center of a FBI investigation, we’re most pessimistic about Virginia Tech (19 spots lower than the average), Texas Tech (10), Texas A&M (6), Northwestern (5), and San Diego State (4).
  • On the other hand, we’re more optimistic about Texas (9 spots higher than the average), Vanderbilt (7), SMU (7), Baylor (5), Providence (5), and UCLA (5). The common thread among several of these these teams seems to be that they are losing very visible, key pieces this year. We’re projecting they won’t take giant steps back, and will be able to at least partly make up for the lost production.

 

Full 2017 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings, From #1 To #351

Below are our full 2017 college basketball preseason rankings.

Keep in mind that sometimes teams can be separated by several ranking spots, but have nearly identical ratings. On the flip side of the coin, two teams can be ranked adjacent to each other, but can have a big ratings gap.

Let’s look at the top of the rankings this season for an example. #5 Villanova and #6 Florida are separated by 0.9 ratings points. That’s the same as the difference between Florida and #11 Purdue.

And a 0.9-point gap isn’t huge to begin with. Given the tight bunching at the top of these ratings, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see one of our top four teams finish the season outside the top 10, or for a team in the bottom half of the top 10 end the season ranked #1. That’s why they play the games!

***UPDATE***

After we posted this article, but before the season started, we made a couple adjustments based on late breaking college basketball news. We are leaving the table below unchanged, but the following changes have been made to the ratings on our site (and are reflected in our season projections):

  • USC: DeAnthony Melton is reportedly being held out of scrimmages due to eligibility concerns related to the FBI investigation (2 point penalty, moving them from #19 to #29).
  • UCLA: 3 freshmen have been arrested for shoplifting in China, and may miss part of the season (0.5 point penalty, moving them from #29 to #34).

***END UPDATE***

RankTeamRating
1Duke19.5
2Arizona19.4
3Wichita St19.2
4Michigan St18.9
5Villanova18.3
6Florida17.4
7Kansas17.2
8Kentucky17.0
9W Virginia16.8
10Cincinnati16.6
11Purdue16.5
12N Carolina16.3
13Louisville15.7
14Virginia15.2
15Xavier15.1
16Baylor14.8
17St Marys14.8
18Notre Dame14.6
19USC14.5
20Gonzaga14.4
21Miami (FL)14.4
22Minnesota14.3
23Seton Hall14.3
24TX Christian14.1
25Providence14.0
26Alabama13.5
27Oregon13.1
28Texas12.9
29UCLA12.7
30Northwestern12.6
31Wisconsin12.5
32Texas A&M12.3
33Butler12.3
34Creighton12.2
35Michigan12.1
36Oklahoma11.8
37Iowa State11.8
38Iowa11.8
39S Methodist11.8
40Vanderbilt11.7
41Rhode Island11.6
42Maryland11.6
43Oklahoma St11.4
44Arkansas11.3
45Kansas St11.3
46Missouri11.2
47Indiana11.0
48Mississippi10.8
49Clemson10.3
50St Johns10.2
51Florida St10.0
52Texas Tech10.0
53Marquette9.8
54Central FL9.5
55Georgia9.5
56Wake Forest9.1
57Tennessee9.1
58Stanford9.0
59S Carolina9.0
60Auburn8.9
61Bucknell8.8
62San Diego St8.5
63VCU8.4
64Houston8.4
65VA Tech8.2
66GA Tech8.2
67Utah8.2
68Penn State8.0
69Ohio State8.0
70Miss State7.7
71BYU7.4
72Boise State7.2
73St Bonavent7.2
74Col Charlestn7.2
75Georgetown6.7
76Temple6.5
77Tulsa6.5
78Belmont6.3
79LA Tech6.3
80Vermont6.3
81Nevada6.3
82Syracuse6.1
83Fresno St5.8
84Loyola-Chi5.8
85Connecticut5.8
86Oakland5.6
87N Mex State5.5
88Boston Col5.4
89Illinois5.2
90Dayton5.2
91Iona5.1
92Princeton4.8
93Middle Tenn4.8
94St Josephs4.8
95Harvard4.8
96TX-Arlington4.7
97LA Lafayette4.7
98San Fransco4.5
99Davidson4.4
100LSU4.3
101E Tenn St4.2
102Nebraska4.1
103California4.1
104Mercer4.0
105Yale3.8
106Fla Gulf Cst3.7
107Colorado3.6
108DePaul3.6
109Elon3.5
110Wyoming3.4
111Oregon St3.4
112N Iowa3.4
113NC-Wilmgton3.2
114Furman3.2
115NC-Asheville3.2
116Arizona St3.1
117Albany2.9
118Illinois St2.7
119Missouri St2.7
120Samford2.7
121Old Dominion2.7
122Lipscomb2.6
123NC State2.5
124S Dakota St2.4
125Richmond2.4
126Towson2.3
127Ohio2.2
128Murray St2.2
129GA Southern2.2
130Georgia St1.9
131Rutgers1.8
132Grand Canyon1.7
133U Mass1.6
134Monmouth1.5
135Northern Kentucky1.5
136La Salle1.4
137UC Irvine1.2
138Toledo1.1
139U Penn1.1
140Washington1.0
141W Michigan1.0
142Ball State0.9
143Denver0.8
144Buffalo0.7
145Hofstra0.7
146E Michigan0.7
147New Mexico0.7
148Valparaiso0.6
149South Dakota0.6
150UNLV0.5
151Northeastrn0.5
152Memphis0.5
153IPFW0.4
154S Illinois0.3
155Santa Clara0.2
156Colorado St0.2
157CS Bakersfld0.2
158Geo Wshgtn0.2
159Pittsburgh0.2
160Utah Val St0.1
161Ste F Austin0.0
162North Dakota State0.0
163Pacific-0.1
164Bradley-0.1
165Arkansas St-0.1
166E Carolina-0.2
167Kent State-0.2
168Akron-0.2
169NC-Grnsboro-0.3
170Montana-0.3
171Saint Louis-0.3
172Troy-0.4
173Weber State-0.4
174Winthrop-0.4
175Wofford-0.6
176Utah State-0.6
177Geo Mason-0.6
178Wm & Mary-0.7
179Lehigh-0.8
180UAB-0.8
181Jksnville St-0.8
182TX El Paso-0.9
183Evansville-1.2
184Montana St-1.2
185Idaho-1.3
186Navy-1.3
187San Diego-1.4
188Wright State-1.7
189UCSB-1.7
190St Peters-1.7
191Colgate-2.0
192LA Monroe-2.1
193E Washingtn-2.2
194Hawaii-2.3
195Cleveland St-2.3
196Gard-Webb-2.4
197Boston U-2.4
198Fordham-2.4
199E Kentucky-2.4
200Indiana St-2.4
201IL-Chicago-2.5
202Liberty-2.5
203Columbia-2.6
204Manhattan-2.8
205Stony Brook-2.9
206TN State-2.9
207Army-2.9
208Niagara-3.0
209WI-Milwkee-3.0
210Drake-3.0
211Marshall-3.0
212Drexel-3.1
213Coastal Car-3.2
214Canisius-3.2
215James Mad-3.2
216NC Central-3.3
217IUPUI-3.3
218TN Tech-3.3
219Detroit-3.3
220Air Force-3.4
221Nebraska Omaha-3.4
222N Hampshire-3.5
223Tulane-3.5
224W Kentucky-3.6
225Duquesne-3.6
226Charlotte-3.6
227Lamar-3.6
228Wash State-3.7
229Fairfield-3.7
230Maryland BC-3.9
231Chattanooga-3.9
232Texas State-3.9
233Loyola-MD-4.0
234WI-Grn Bay-4.0
235American-4.0
236TN Martin-4.0
237TX A&M-CC-4.0
238Cornell-4.0
239N Colorado-4.1
240Radford-4.2
241Central Mich-4.3
242TX Southern-4.3
243Rider-4.4
244Mt St Marys-4.6
245North Dakota-4.7
246N Illinois-4.7
247SE Louisiana-4.8
248Sam Hous St-4.8
249Delaware-4.9
250Siena-4.9
251Bowling Grn-5.0
252St Fran (PA)-5.1
253Lg Beach St-5.1
254App State-5.1
255F Dickinson-5.4
256Campbell-5.4
257Dartmouth-5.5
258UC Davis-5.5
259Youngs St-5.5
260E Illinois-5.6
261Holy Cross-5.7
262Abilene Christian-5.7
263Portland St-5.8
264High Point-5.9
265South Carolina Upstate-5.9
266Loyola Mymt-5.9
267Oral Roberts-6.0
268Rice-6.0
269Morehead St-6.1
270LIU-Brooklyn-6.4
271Seattle-6.5
272CS Fullerton-6.6
273S Florida-6.7
274Portland-6.8
275Incarnate Word-6.9
276Austin Peay-7.0
277Cal Poly-7.0
278W Carolina-7.1
279Hampton-7.1
280Miami (OH)-7.1
281S Alabama-7.1
282Fla Atlantic-7.4
283Bryant-7.4
284UC Riverside-7.4
285Wagner-7.5
286Charl South-7.5
287S Mississippi-7.6
288Sacred Hrt-7.7
289Massachusetts Lowell-7.8
290Binghamton-7.8
291AR Lit Rock-7.8
292San Jose St-7.9
293Brown-7.9
294New Orleans-8.0
295SE Missouri-8.0
296Norfolk St-8.1
297New Jersey Tech-8.2
298Jacksonville-8.3
299TX-Pan Am-8.3
300Southern-8.3
301TX-San Ant-8.4
302Lafayette-8.4
303Rob Morris-8.5
304UMKC-8.5
305Marist-8.9
306Quinnipiac-8.9
307W Illinois-9.1
308Sac State-9.2
309Kennesaw St-9.2
310Cal St Nrdge-9.5
311Morgan St-9.6
312SIU Edward-9.7
313N Florida-9.7
314Alcorn State-9.7
315Hartford-9.8
316Houston Bap-9.9
317N Arizona-9.9
318Pepperdine-9.9
319Citadel-10.1
320North Texas-10.1
321NW State-10.2
322Stetson-10.4
323Jackson St-10.6
324St Fran (NY)-11.1
325Maryland ES-11.2
326McNeese St-11.2
327NC A&T-11.2
328Florida Intl-11.3
329Savannah St-11.3
330Prairie View-11.7
331Idaho State-11.8
332S Utah-12.1
333Nicholls St-12.4
334Central Ark-12.7
335S Car State-12.7
336VA Military-12.8
337Longwood-12.8
338Alabama St-13.5
339Chicago St-13.6
340Central Conn-13.8
341Florida A&M-14.1
342Maine-14.3
343Grambling St-14.4
344Howard-14.6
345Delaware St-15.2
346Beth-Cook-15.2
347Ark Pine Bl-15.2
348Coppin State-16.3
349Alab A&M-17.4
350Presbyterian-17.7
351Miss Val St-18.6

Before You Go …

As a final reminder, be sure to check out the season projections we create using these 2017 college basketball preseason rankings. There’s a ton to see: