NFL Week 9 Rankings & Projections Update: Bills Closer To Ending Playoff Drought

November 2, 2017 - by Seth Trachtman

The top ten teams in our NFL Week 9 Rankings as of Thursday morning

Here’s a summary of our biggest NFL Week 9 rankings and predictions changes, along with some interesting Week 9 matchups on the NFL schedule.

Editor’s Note: We’ve posted our Week 9 NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.

NFL Week 9 Rankings Updates

Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team. Here are the top 10 increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 9:

	Team	Division	Ranking	Rating	Rating Change
1	Baltimore	AFC North	14	1.3	1.7
2	Buffalo	AFC East	18	-0.1	1.0
3	Carolina	NFC South	13	1.4	0.9
4	Dallas	NFC East	6	3.4	0.7
5	Indianapolis	AFC South	30	-7.3	0.5
6	Philadelphia	NFC East	5	3.6	0.5
7	Minnesota	NFC North	9	2.6	0.4
8	Pittsburgh	AFC North	3	5.5	0.3
9	Chicago	NFC North	27	-3.9	0.2
10	Jacksonville	AFC South	8	3.0	0.1

With favorites dominating Week 8, there was only one very big gainer in the ratings this week, Baltimore, who executed a 40-0 demolition of the Dolphins.

The Ravens had won just one of their previous four games before their Thursday win, and the predictive ratings had them as six point favorites at home against Miami.

Buffalo also got a nice lift from their 34-14 home win against the Raiders, a 20 point margin when the Bills were only favored by 1 point according to our ratings. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, the Bills are now in the thick of the playoff race at 5-2, just a half game behind perennial AFC East power New England.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 9 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top 10 gainers in projected total wins for the 2017 season heading into Week 9:

	Team	Division	Total Wins	Total Wins Change
1	Buffalo	AFC East	9.5	0.8
2	Carolina	NFC South	9.5	0.8
3	Baltimore	AFC North	8.4	0.7
4	Dallas	NFC East	9.0	0.7
5	Pittsburgh	AFC North	11.4	0.5
6	Minnesota	NFC North	10.3	0.3
7	Kansas City	AFC West	11.5	0.3
8	Atlanta	NFC South	8.4	0.3
9	New Orleans	NFC South	10.3	0.3
10	Seattle	NFC West	10.9	0.3

The aforementioned Bills took a nice jump with a big win against Oakland, and are now projected for 9.5 wins.

Carolina also also had an expected wins increase with an easy win against Tampa Bay. The Panthers are now also projected for 9.5 wins as they vie for a return to the playoffs, though they did trade No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills on Tuesday. Sitting at 5-3, they have a big home matchup vs. the NFC South rival Falcons on Sunday.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 9 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

	Team	Division	Win Division	Win Division Change
1	Minnesota	NFC North	59.0%	10.4%
2	Kansas City	AFC West	92.5%	9.6%
3	Carolina	NFC South	26.1%	8.1%
4	Jacksonville	AFC South	56.5%	6.1%
5	Buffalo	AFC East	19.2%	4.9%
6	Dallas	NFC East	19.6%	3.9%
7	Seattle	NFC West	72.5%	3.5%
8	Pittsburgh	AFC North	89.9%	1.3%
9	Baltimore	AFC North	8.1%	0.8%
10	Tennessee	AFC South	24.5%	0.1%

The Vikings continue to gain momentum in the NFC North race, with both their play and the decline of Green Bay and Detroit. Minnesota’s odds to win the division were just 34.5% two weeks ago. Since then, the Vikings are 2-0, while Detroit has lost twice and Green Bay is 0-1 without Aaron Rodgers.

Kansas City is moving toward locking up the AFC West, with 92.5% odds to win the division. Expected to be among the best divisions in the league this year, the AFC West is looking more like a dud with recently disappointing showings by the Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers. The Chiefs beat the Broncos in Week 8, while Oakland and LA also lost.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 9 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Rank	Team	Division	Make Playoffs	Make Playoffs Change
1	Buffalo	AFC East	60.1%	19.8%
2	Carolina	NFC South	52.3%	15.9%
3	Baltimore	AFC North	39.0%	13.8%
4	Dallas	NFC East	40.9%	10.3%
5	Minnesota	NFC North	75.5%	6.3%
6	Kansas City	AFC West	96.1%	4.8%
7	Jacksonville	AFC South	76.2%	3.1%
8	Seattle	NFC West	85.2%	2.7%
9	Pittsburgh	AFC North	95.4%	2.6%
10	New Orleans	NFC South	73.4%	2.5%

The Bills and Panthers now have better than a 50/50 chance of making it back to the playoffs. First-year Bills head coach Sean McDermott was Carolina’s defensive coordinator from 2011-16, and the Bills last made the playoffs in 1999. It’s too early for Bills fans to start dancing in the streets, especially with a remaining schedule that includes New Orleans, Kansas City, and two games against the Patriots — but it’s progress.

Dallas is two games behind Philadelphia in the NFC East, but they’ve won two games in a row on the road. The Cowboys now have a 41% chance to make the playoffs with a rough three game stretch coming vs. Kansas City, at Atlanta, and vs. Philadelphia. They also may be without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, in which case those odds are likely a bit too high.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 9 Schedule Watch

Here are three games on our radar screen for NFL Week 9, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement, or some/all of the above:

Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Sun 1:00pm ET
Through eight weeks, the Jaguars have a surprising 4-3 record and are our frontrunners to win the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Bengals are hanging onto their playoff hopes by a thread at 3-4. They only defeated the Colts at home by one point in Week 8, but the Bengals have quietly won three of their last four games. The early line movement has favored Jacksonville, with the line moving from 3.5 to 4.5 in their favor on Tuesday.

Atlanta at Carolina
Sun 1:00pm ET
The last two winners of the NFC will face off in a key division matchup. The Panthers have a half-game lead in the standings, but both teams are looking up at the 5-2 Saints. Division and playoff hopes will be significantly impacted by the result of this game. The Panthers currently have 52% odds to make the playoffs, while Atlanta is lagging behind at 37%.

Kansas City at Dallas
Sun 4:25pm ET
Dallas opened as one point favorites in some sportsbooks, but the line has moved to one point in favor of the Chiefs as of Wednesday afternoon, likely due to Ezekiel Elliott’s shaky status with a pending suspension. For what it’s worth, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 18-12 against the Cowboys during his career, with 29 of those games coming at the helm of the Eagles.

Get info on all Week 9 games with our NFL schedule and NFL odds.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 9, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 9 games, please check out our premium products:

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