NFL Week 7 Rankings & Projections Update: G-Men, Steelers, Vikes Rise

October 19, 2017 - by Seth Trachtman

The top ten teams in our NFL Week 7 Rankings as of Thursday morning

Here’s a summary of our biggest NFL Week 7 rankings and predictions changes, along with some interesting Week 7 matchups on the NFL schedule.

Editor’s Note: We’ve posted our Week 7 NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.

NFL Week 7 Rankings Updates

Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team. Here are the top 10 increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 7:

	Team	Division	Ranking	Rating	Rating_Chg
1	NY Giants	NFC East	19	-0.3	1.2
2	LA Rams	NFC West	18	-0.3	1.0
3	Miami	AFC East	27	-3.0	0.9
4	Minnesota	NFC North	8	1.9	0.9
5	New Orleans	NFC South	10	1.5	0.8
6	Chicago	NFC North	28	-5.0	0.7
7	Pittsburgh	AFC North	3	4.6	0.7
8	Philadelphia	NFC East	6	3.2	0.5
9	LA Chargers	AFC West	25	-1.4	0.5
10	San Francisco	NFC West	29	-5.9	0.5

There weren’t many big gains this week, despite a slate filled with Vegas upsets.

The Giants, on the road and missing their top four wide receivers, had the most surprising upset of the week, a 13-point win over Denver. That win was their first of the season after losing three straight games by five points or less. Close losses are one reason the 1-5 Giants still command a #19 ranking, better than their win-loss record implies.

Just one spot ahead of the Giants in the rankings are the LA Rams, whose predictive rating rose a full point after beating Jacksonville on the road by 10. It’s been an up an down season the Rams so far, and we still rate them as a slightly below average team. Still, they have gained over 3.5 points in our ratings since opening the year at -3.9.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 7 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top 10 gainers in projected total wins for the 2017 season heading into Week 7:

	Team	Division	Total_Wins	Total_Wins_Chg
1	Miami	AFC East	7.4	1.1
2	NY Giants	NFC East	5.9	1.0
3	Minnesota	NFC North	9.6	0.9
4	Chicago	NFC North	5.7	0.9
5	Pittsburgh	AFC North	10.4	0.9
6	LA Chargers	AFC West	6.6	0.9
7	LA Rams	NFC West	8.8	0.8
8	New Orleans	NFC South	9.2	0.7
9	Philadelphia	NFC East	11.1	0.7
10	Arizona	NFC West	7.4	0.5

Several upsets in Week 6 resulted in significant projected wins gains. Miami is quietly 3-2 after defeating the Falcons as double-digit underdogs on the road. The Dolphins are not out of the running for a playoff spot, despite losing by two touchdowns to the Jets and getting shut out by the much maligned Saints defense early in the season.

After defeating Carolina on Thursday night, the Eagles are projected for the most wins (11.1) in the NFC. Philadelphia now sits at 5-1, with their only loss coming on the road against the team we currently predict to win the most games this year (Kansas City). The Eagles have a good chance to keep their momentum going, playing at home in four of their next five games.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 7 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

	Team	Division	Win_Division	Win_Division_Chg
1	Pittsburgh	AFC North	74.9%	20.0%
2	Minnesota	NFC North	34.5%	18.5%
3	New Orleans	NFC South	33.8%	17.0%
4	Tennessee	AFC South	26.6%	10.0%
5	Houston	AFC South	30.8%	7.7%
6	Philadelphia	NFC East	78.0%	7.6%
7	LA Rams	NFC West	22.7%	6.1%
8	Miami	AFC East	6.2%	2.9%
9	Kansas City	AFC West	83.2%	2.9%
10	New England	AFC East	78.2%	2.3%

Pittsburgh took a huge step forward with an upset win at Kansas City, coupled with a bad home loss by Baltimore against the Bears. Our #3 ranked team overall by a hair over Seattle, the Steelers now have the fourth best odds of any team in the league to win their division, even with only a one game lead over the Ravens.

The Vikings got a big lift by beating the Packers, and their current division winner odds of 34.5% are conservative because our power ratings based season simulations don’t account for Aaron Rodgers’ recent injury. If Green Bay’s performance slides significantly in the next few games, Minnesota’s odds will benefit even more.

The tightest division races look to be in the south. The AFC South race has gotten more competitive after Jacksonville’s loss, plus wins by Tennessee and Houston. All three of those teams are currently 3-3. The NFC South is closer as well, with Carolina and surging New Orleans both at around 33% odds to win the division, with the Falcons at around 24% odds to win it.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 7 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

	Team	Division	Make_Playoffs	Make_Playoffs_Chg
1	Minnesota	NFC North	60.0%	20.6%
2	Pittsburgh	AFC North	84.7%	18.3%
3	New Orleans	NFC South	52.1%	15.8%
4	LA Rams	NFC West	40.9%	13.2%
5	Miami	AFC East	21.8%	12.6%
6	Tennessee	AFC South	39.5%	11.8%
7	Philadelphia	NFC East	87.7%	9.1%
8	Houston	AFC South	48.4%	7.5%
9	LA Chargers	AFC West	9.1%	5.6%
10	New England	AFC East	89.5%	3.5%

Banged up at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, it’s somewhat remarkable that the Vikings head into Week 7 with 60% odds to make the playoffs. The NFC North in general seems to be getting decimated by injuries.

After losing 11 of their last 12 games in 2016, the surprising Rams currently lead the NFC West. Although we don’t project them to be ahead of Seattle in the division standings at the end of the season, the Rams’ 41% playoff odds going into Week 7 are still a big improvement from where they opened the season.

At this point in the season, four teams have at least an 80% chance of making the playoffs: Kansas City, New England, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. Those teams each lead their respective division entering Week 7, and all four of them share the benefit of relatively weak future schedule strength.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 7 Schedule Watch

Here are three games on our radar screen for NFL Week 7, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement, or some/all of the above:

New Orleans at Green Bay
Sun 1:00pm ET
After Aaron Rodgers’ potentially season-ending fractured collarbone suffered on Sunday, we’re about to find out how ready Packers backup QB Brett Hundley is for the NFL. The line initially moved in New Orleans’ favor despite the Saints opening as 4.5 point favorites, more recently it has come surging back toward Green Bay. New Orleans has quietly been one of the league’s hottest teams, winning three straight games in convincing fashion after failing to show up on defense in the first two weeks.

Atlanta at New England
Sun 8:30pm ET
What could be more exciting than a Super Bowl LI rematch? The Patriots and Falcons have had their share of issues early in the season, but they still enter Week 7 with winning records. Atlanta is looking for revenge after blowing a 25-point lead to New England in the Super Bowl, and looking to rebound after blowing a 17-point lead and losing to Miami in Week 6. The Falcons have now lost two straight games to AFC East teams while the Patriots, 3.5 point favorites as of Thursday, are hoping to make it three wins in a row.

Washington at Philadelphia
Mon 8:30pm ET
The only one-loss team remaining in the NFC, Philadelphia has a chance to take a two game lead in the NFC East with a win against Washington on Monday Night Football. The Eagles already defeated the Redskins on the road in Week 1, but since then Washington has won three of four, with their only loss coming against the 5-1 Chiefs in Kansas City. Philly won the first contest by 13, but as of Thursday the betting markets only favor the Eagles by 4.5 points in this rematch. Our predictive ratings are more optimistic about Philadelphia’s chances.

Get info on all Week 7 games with our NFL schedule and NFL odds.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 7, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 7 games, please check out our premium products:

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