NFL Week 5 Rankings & Projections Update: Another AFC South Shakeup

October 5, 2017 - by Seth Trachtman

The top ten teams in our NFL Week 5 Rankings

In this post, we’re going to share the biggest NFL Week 5 rankings and predictions updates, then preview some interesting Week 5 matchups on the NFL schedule.

Editor’s Note: Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for Week 5.

NFL Week 5 Rankings Updates

Here are the top 10 increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 5. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:

	Team	Division	Ranking	Rating	Rating_Chg
1	Houston	AFC South	8	2.5	2.8
2	Cincinnati	AFC North	15	0.7	1.6
3	Buffalo	AFC East	23	-0.9	1.2
4	New Orleans	NFC South	16	0.7	1.1
5	Carolina	NFC South	12	1.5	1.1
6	Seattle	NFC West	5	4.1	1.0
7	LA Rams	NFC West	25	-1.0	0.8
8	Pittsburgh	AFC North	2	5.7	0.8
9	Green Bay	NFC North	4	4.4	0.7
10	San Francisco	NFC West	30	-6.3	0.7

Finding offense has its perks, as the Texans and Bengals showed in Week 4. Houston defeated Tennessee 57-14 to move up 2.8 points and 11 spots in the rankings, though 5 Titans turnovers helped to inflate that win margin.

Cincinnati, who fired their offensive coordinator after two anemic games, continued to turn around their woeful start with a 31-7 win at Cleveland in Week 4.

Since it’s still early in the season, low preseason expectations keep our predictive ratings conservative about “early surprise” teams like the Rams and Bills. Those teams continue to move up, but with only four games played so far, there’s not a ton of proof that they’re going to be top contenders. The Rams, in particular, rank dead last in our Strength of Schedule rankings.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 5 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top 10 gainers in projected total wins for the 2017 season heading into Week 5:

	Team	Division	Total_Wins	Total_Wins_Chg
1	Houston	AFC South	9.1	1.6
2	Carolina	NFC South	9.6	1.2
3	Cincinnati	AFC North	7.3	1.1
4	Buffalo	AFC East	8.8	1.1
5	LA Rams	NFC West	8.4	0.9
6	NY Jets	AFC East	5.5	0.9
7	Detroit	NFC North	9.6	0.8
8	New Orleans	NFC South	8.4	0.7
9	Pittsburgh	AFC North	10.7	0.7
10	Denver	AFC West	9.6	0.6

The Texans are now in a three-way tie in the AFC South after they clobbered Tennessee, and division rival Jacksonville was upset by the Jets.

An unlikely win by the Panthers at New England increased their projected season wins almost into the double-digit range, making fans optimistic about a playoff spot despite Cam Newton’s slow start.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 5 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

	Team	Division	Win_Division	Win_Division_Chg
1	Houston	AFC South	38.7%	27.8%
2	Philadelphia	NFC East	53.2%	15.7%
3	Carolina	NFC South	29.9%	15.1%
4	Pittsburgh	AFC North	78.9%	15.0%
5	Buffalo	AFC East	26.1%	14.8%
6	Detroit	NFC North	35.1%	11.0%
7	Green Bay	NFC North	49.4%	6.9%
8	New Orleans	NFC South	18.1%	6.6%
9	LA Rams	NFC West	27.0%	5.7%
10	Denver	AFC West	21.0%	4.4%

Houston is now the frontrunner in the AFC South, though Jacksonville and Tennessee still aren’t far behind in what looks like the closest division in the AFC.

Philadelphia now has a better than 50 percent chance to win the NFC East after a close win at the Chargers, coupled with Washington’s Monday Night Football loss to Kansas City. The Eagles have a one game lead in the division and have already defeated Washington on the road.

Pittsburgh has the best odds of any team to win their division after beating top division threat Baltimore by 17 on the road. The Ravens have scored a combined 16 points in the last two weeks, and badly need a win at Oakland this week to keep pace. It won’t be easy, as Pittsburgh is currently the biggest favorite of Week 5, hosting Jacksonville.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 5 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

	Team	Division	Make_Playoffs	Make_Playoffs_Chg
1	Houston	AFC South	53.9%	30.8%
2	Buffalo	AFC East	45.9%	20.8%
3	Carolina	NFC South	52.9%	17.3%
4	Detroit	NFC North	58.0%	13.3%
5	Denver	AFC West	56.5%	12.4%
6	Pittsburgh	AFC North	85.6%	11.5%
7	Philadelphia	NFC East	62.9%	11.2%
8	LA Rams	NFC West	37.8%	10.6%
9	New Orleans	NFC South	35.4%	10.0%
10	Cincinnati	AFC North	18.8%	8.6%

Unsurprisingly, it’s more good news for the Texans, who are hoping to make the playoffs for the third consecutive year. At 54%, Houston’s chances to make the postseason are currently the fifth highest in the AFC.

Buffalo has turned heads in their last two games, leading the AFC East at 3-1 despite trading their No. 1 wide receiver Sammy Watkins and losing their top two cornerbacks from last year. The Bills last made the playoffs in 1999, when they were the victims of the infamous Music City Miracle against the Titans.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 5 Schedule Watch

Here are three games on our radar screen for NFL Week 5, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement, or some/all of the above:

Seattle at LA Rams
Sun 4:05pm ET
Leading the NFL in points scored, Sean McVay’s Rams are the talk of the NFL in the early season. They’ll face a Seattle team we still project to win the NFC West, but the Seahawks have lost both of their road games so far this season, at Green Bay and Tennessee. The Rams are favored by one point as of Wednesday afternoon, though the line was as high as 2.5 in favor of LA on Monday.

Green Bay at Dallas
Sun 4:25pm ET
The Packers enter Week 5 as our #4 ranked team and first in the NFC. They’ll face a Dallas squad that has disappointed thus far at 2-2, and now trails Philadelphia by one game in the NFC East. The Cowboys are favored by two points at Jerry World as of Wednesday. The Dallas defense has been inconsistent this season, allowing 35 points to the Rams last week and 42 points to Denver in Week 2, and likely won’t be able to afford many lapses vs. Aaron Rodgers.

Kansas City at Houston
Sun 7:30pm ET
The league’s only remaining undefeated team goes on the road to face Houston and rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Chiefs were one point favorites as of Thursday morning, on a short week after defeating Washington on Monday night. Watson and the Texans offense have built some serious offensive momentum, as the team has scored a combined 90 points over the last two weeks. Our predictive ratings have this game as a pick’em, with KC’s rating exactly three points better at a neutral site.

Get info on all Week 5 games with our NFL schedule and NFL odds.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 5, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 5 games, please check out our premium products:

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