2016 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings

We stayed up late Saturday night to finish crunching the numbers and spot checking the data. Then early Sunday morning, we loaded our official 2016 college basketball preseason rankings into our database.

It should come as no shock that Duke is our top-ranked team this season. If we had come up with any other result, we’d think something was wrong with the model.

These are the ratings that drive our preseason projections, and they serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses. (Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Below you’ll find a preseason top 25 comparison between TeamRankings, Ken Pomeroy, Dan Hanner/Sports Illustrated, the AP poll, and the ESPN Coaches poll. We’ve also posted the full rankings and ratings for all 351 Division I teams.

Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every day throughout the season.

Ratings Method

The basic idea is that we establish a baseline prediction for a team, given their power ratings from recent years, and assuming an average amount of roster turnover. Then we make some adjustments based on how much value each team is returning on offense and defense, as well as the strength of their recruiting classes from the past few years, and the value of any transfers they’ve added this season. The result is our 2016 college basketball preseason rankings. For a more complete description, check out our blog post from three years ago.

As always, we’ve refit the model during the offseason, in order to take into account another year of data.

It’s worth noting that most of the resulting model weights shifted by less than 5% from last season, meaning the model is fairly stable, and new data points aren’t significantly changing the results. Two types of info did have their weight change by more than 5%: returning defensive value now gets 15% more weight than in past seasons, and losing high draft picks is penalized 30% more than in the past (but that only translates into an extra quarter of a ratings point penalty).

In addition, we’ve updated the way he handle transfers. Previously, a given transfer player would give the same rating bonus whether he was headed to the #1 team, or the #351 team. With our update, transfers now give a weaker boost to the very best teams, since those transfer players are less likely to actually play when they join a team that’s already very good.

Ratings Accuracy

Before we get to the 2016 college basketball preseason rankings themselves, it’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy has compared our conference win projections with other stat-based prognosticators in past years. In terms of average error, both  two years ago and three years ago we finished second best out of four (beating Pomeroy both years, but finishing a hair behind Dan Hanner), and four years ago we finished as the best of three.

In the most recent season, Sports Illustrated compared our preseason ratings against a similar group of stat-based projections, plus human rankings. Dan Hanner (for Sports Illustrated) came out on top again, and we were in the tier behind him with Ken Pomeroy, and ESPN. Human rankings were in last place by a fair amount. Of course, that scoring was graded against Pomeroy’s own final ratings, so the numbers may have been biased in his favor a bit.

To summarize all that, after taking a few years of data into account, we feel we currently have the second best preseason ratings, behind Dan Hanner’s player lineup based projections, but ahead of Ken Pomeroy, ESPN, and human rankings.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems, and we expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project 351 teams.

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:

The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system, along with an average rank, and finally a column showing how far TR is from the consensus (positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse). For teams receiving no votes in the polls, we used a rank of 50 for the AP poll, and 60 for the Coaches poll. Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.

2016-17 College Basketball Preseason Rankings Comparison
TeamTRKPDHAPCoachesAVGTR Diff
Duke111111.00.0
Kansas232322.40.4
Villanova325433.40.4
Kentucky543243.6-1.4
Oregon764555.4-1.6
N Carolina456665.41.4
Virginia977877.6-1.4
Wisconsin8889108.60.6
Xavier61112788.82.8
Arizona101010101110.20.2
Louisville11913131412.01.0
Indiana151615111213.8-1.2
Purdue171511151514.6-2.4
Gonzaga16229141314.8-1.2
Syracuse121214191714.82.8
Michigan St13142812915.22.2
W Virginia142019201818.24.2
UCLA182116162018.20.2
St Marys201822171919.2-0.8
Connecticut224120181623.41.4
Creighton313221222325.8-5.2
Cincinnati232827262525.82.8
Texas264525212227.81.8
Butler211929333828.07.0
Iowa State292639242729.00.0
California195217292829.010.0
Miami (FL)402433312931.4-8.6
Michigan253123424433.08.0
Maryland394836252133.8-5.2
Ohio State331348354033.80.8
Florida244031354134.210.2
Rhode Island504332232434.4-15.6
NC State32351832(60)35.43.4
Clemson342334(50)4136.42.4
Baylor272524(50)(60)37.210.2

A few points stick out:

  • Duke is the unanimous #1, which is not at surprising. More on Duke in the next section…
  • For  the second year in a row, we rank Kentucky the lowest out of all the systems (though this time only by 1 spot). Just like last fall, we think Kentucky has a great recruiting class, but they’re not returning enough experience to be the #2 ranked team (as they are in the AP poll). To put numbers on it, we have the Wildcats bringing back only 20% of their offensive production, and 31% of their defensive production. For comparison, Duke and Kansas bring 50% to 65% of their production back.
  • Compared to the crowd, we’re most pessimistic about Rhode Island, who we rank 7 to 27 spots lower than other projections. Rhode Island’s star guard E.C. Matthews got injured at the beginning of last season, and as a result Rhode Island’s raw data from last season paints a worse picture than is justified. However, we do try to account for injuries, and even with the return of Matthews, the Rams don’t seem to have the profile of a Top 25 team. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams end up somewhere between those two extremes.
  • On the other hand, we’re more optimistic about California, Florida, and Baylor. We rank each of those teams 10 spots higher than the consensus. Cal is probably the most interesting of those projections. Jaylen Brown was hailed as a top recruit last season, but he was terribly inefficient offensively and our model doesn’t view his loss as a huge negative. On the other hand, Cal still has Ivan Rabb, and our model gives fairly strong credit for having a sophomore who was a highly ranked recruit. Plus, the Bears get a large transfer bonus from Grant Mullins, who was a great shooter and passer last season for Columbia.

How Good Is Duke?

Unlike 2015-16, when these five systems combined to pick three different teams at #1 in the preseason, this year Duke is the unanimous projected #1. The humans and the computers agree.

The last team hyped this much before the season had started was the 2014-15 Kentucky team. Those Wildcats were the clear title favorites, and ended up making the Final Four before losing to Wisconsin.

Why is Duke so highly rated? And what should we expect from Duke this season?

The answer to both questions lies in their fantastic recruiting class.

The RSCI recruiting rankings go back to the freshman class for the 1998-99 season. We’ve done analysis to translate recruiting rank to team value, and based on our model, Duke has the 5th-best freshman class in that 19-year span. And if the results of the previous top classes are a guide to the future, Duke should be very optimistic:

Top 10 Recruiting Classes Since 1998-1999
TR Recruit ScoreTeamResult
4.82013-14 KentuckyRunner Up
4.82011-12 KentuckyChamp
4.02013-14 KansasL in Second Round (Joel Embiid injured)
4.02014-15 DukeChamp
3.92016-17 Duke?????
3.62006-07 Ohio StateRunner Up
3.52005-06 DukeSweet 16
3.52009-10 KentuckyElite 8
3.52012-13 UCLAL in First Round (Jordan Adams injured)
3.41999-00 FloridaRunner Up

Ignoring the two cases where one of the key recruits got injured, that’s 5 title game appearances out of 7 seasons. This doesn’t mean that Duke is an odds-on favorite to reach the title game, but it does bode well for their season.

Full 2016 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings, From #1 To #351

Below is our full 2016 college basketball preseason rankings.

Keep in mind that sometimes teams can be separated by several ranking spots, but have nearly identical ratings. On the flip side of the coin, two teams can be ranked adjacent to each other, but can have a big ratings gap.

Let’s look at the top of the rankings this season for an example. #3 Villanova and #4 North Carolina are separated by 2.1 ratings points. That’s more than the difference between North Carolina and #11 Louisville (1.7 ratings points). And there’s an even bigger gap (2.4 ratings points) between #1 Duke and #2 Kansas.

That means we can group teams into a few tiers at the top, with about 2 ratings points separating each tier.

  • Duke
  • Kansas & Villanova
  • UNC, Kentucky, Xavier, Oregon, Wisconsin, Virginia, Arizona & Louisville

With a projected standard error for these ratings of about 4 points, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise at all to see Duke finish the season rated lower than Kansas or Villanova, or even a single team from the top of the third tier. But to see the Blue Devils fall all the way into the middle of third tier would be a bit of a shock.

[Update (11/11/2016, 3AM Eastern): We’ve made 2 last minute changes to team ratings based on injury and eligibility news. Arizona drops 3 spots from #10 to #13 based on Allonzo Trier’s potential absence, and Ray Smith’s ACL injury. Yale drops from #108 to #144 based on Makai Mason’s season-ending injury. We are not going to edit the table below, so that our original ratings are preserved for posterity. But our final preseason ratings and projections on the site will reflect these changes.]

RankTeamRating
1Duke23.9
2Kansas21.5
3Villanova20.5
4N Carolina18.4
5Kentucky18.0
6Xavier17.5
7Oregon17.5
8Wisconsin17.2
9Virginia17.0
10Arizona16.7
11Louisville16.7
12Syracuse16.2
13Michigan St16.0
14W Virginia15.0
15Indiana14.7
16Gonzaga14.6
17Purdue14.3
18UCLA14.3
19California13.7
20St Marys13.5
21Butler13.5
22Connecticut13.4
23Cincinnati13.3
24Florida13.2
25Michigan13.0
26Texas12.8
27Baylor12.7
28VCU12.1
29Iowa State12.1
30Texas A&M12.0
31Creighton12.0
32NC State12.0
33Ohio State11.9
34Clemson11.9
35Georgetown11.8
36Wichita St11.8
37Pittsburgh11.7
38Marquette11.7
39Maryland11.6
40Miami (FL)11.4
41San Diego St11.4
42Seton Hall11.3
43Dayton11.3
44S Methodist11.2
45Texas Tech11.2
46Princeton11.0
47Oklahoma10.9
48VA Tech10.9
49Florida St10.9
50Rhode Island10.8
51Vanderbilt10.8
52Kansas St10.6
53Iowa10.2
54Notre Dame10.0
55Nevada8.5
56Arkansas8.4
57Colorado8.4
58Georgia8.1
59BYU8.0
60Alabama8.0
61Stanford7.9
62Arizona St7.9
63TX-Arlington7.8
64USC7.6
65Valparaiso7.6
66Northwestern7.6
67Minnesota7.6
68Monmouth7.4
69Utah7.1
70Oklahoma St6.9
71Providence6.9
72S Carolina6.7
73Washington6.6
74Illinois6.6
75New Mexico6.4
76Miss State6.4
77Auburn6.4
78TX Christian6.4
79Mississippi6.4
80NC-Wilmgton6.3
81UAB6.2
82N Iowa6.2
83Geo Wshgtn6.0
84Wake Forest6.0
85Davidson5.8
86Oregon St5.8
87Wm & Mary5.5
88Ohio5.5
89Belmont5.3
90Houston5.1
91Richmond4.9
92Harvard4.8
93Akron4.8
94LSU4.8
95James Mad4.5
96Nebraska4.5
97Memphis4.3
98Siena4.3
99St Bonavent4.2
100Vermont4.1
101Toledo3.9
102Illinois St3.8
103Penn State3.8
104Tennessee3.7
105Col Charlestn3.7
106Temple3.7
107W Kentucky3.6
108Yale3.6
109Fla Gulf Cst3.5
110Central FL3.5
111GA Tech3.5
112WI-Grn Bay3.4
113Ste F Austin3.4
114North Dakota State3.3
115St Josephs3.3
116N Mex State3.2
117Middle Tenn3.1
118S Dakota St3.1
119Chattanooga3.1
120AR Lit Rock3.1
121Weber State3.0
122Lg Beach St3.0
123St Johns2.9
124Iona2.8
125Boise State2.6
126Oakland2.6
127Buffalo2.6
128Tulsa2.5
129UC Irvine2.5
130Ball State2.5
131Hofstra2.4
132E Michigan2.3
133Pepperdine2.2
134UNLV2.2
135Fresno St2.2
136Murray St2.1
137Old Dominion2.1
138Sam Hous St1.5
139GA Southern1.4
140Indiana St1.3
141Montana1.3
142Winthrop1.3
143Elon1.3
144La Salle1.3
145Lehigh1.2
146Evansville1.1
147N Illinois1.0
148CS Bakersfld1.0
149Towson0.9
150W Michigan0.9
151E Carolina0.9
152S Illinois0.8
153Georgia St0.8
154LA Tech0.6
155LA Lafayette0.6
156Marshall0.5
157Missouri0.5
158U Mass0.4
159IPFW0.4
160Fordham0.2
161Nebraska Omaha0.2
162UCSB0.2
163Pacific0.2
164Santa Clara0.1
165St Peters0.0
166Wash State0.0
167Utah State-0.1
168Albany-0.3
169Grand Canyon-0.3
170Colorado St-0.3
171Central Mich-0.5
172Wyoming-0.5
173Morehead St-0.7
174Bucknell-0.8
175Mercer-0.8
176Duquesne-0.9
177Hawaii-0.9
178Stony Brook-0.9
179Portland-1.2
180Geo Mason-1.2
181Columbia-1.4
182DePaul-1.6
183Idaho-1.6
184Northeastrn-1.7
185E Tenn St-1.7
186NC-Asheville-1.8
187Denver-1.8
188N Hampshire-1.9
189Air Force-1.9
190Loyola-Chi-2.0
191NC-Grnsboro-2.0
192Charlotte-2.1
193Missouri St-2.2
194Rutgers-2.3
195Drake-2.3
196Wagner-2.4
197Tulane-2.4
198Boston U-2.5
199Wofford-2.5
200IUPUI-2.5
201Rider-2.5
202Cleveland St-2.6
203Fairfield-2.6
204LA Monroe-2.7
205Saint Louis-2.7
206Boston Col-2.8
207TN State-2.8
208Detroit-3.0
209Bowling Grn-3.0
210Cal St Nrdge-3.0
211New Jersey Tech-3.0
212S Florida-3.1
213Loyola Mymt-3.2
214Kent State-3.2
215U Penn-3.3
216Wright State-3.3
217S Alabama-3.3
218TX A&M-CC-3.4
219Manhattan-3.4
220Oral Roberts-3.5
221Holy Cross-3.5
222Dartmouth-3.6
223TX El Paso-3.6
224N Florida-3.8
225Coastal Car-3.8
226Jacksonville-3.9
227North Dakota-3.9
228Furman-3.9
229Rice-4.0
230Fla Atlantic-4.0
231Lipscomb-4.0
232Canisius-4.0
233North Texas-4.1
234Cornell-4.2
235UMKC-4.2
236Cal Poly-4.2
237E Kentucky-4.4
238TX Southern-4.6
239High Point-4.6
240CS Fullerton-4.6
241E Washingtn-4.7
242Montana St-4.7
243Youngs St-4.7
244Bradley-4.7
245Troy-4.8
246UC Riverside-4.9
247WI-Milwkee-4.9
248Stetson-4.9
249Sac State-5.0
250S Mississippi-5.0
251W Illinois-5.0
252Florida Intl-5.2
253Colgate-5.2
254Brown-5.5
255Idaho State-5.5
256UC Davis-5.7
257Drexel-5.7
258Jackson St-5.7
259TN Tech-5.8
260San Diego-5.8
261Quinnipiac-5.9
262Samford-6.0
263Gard-Webb-6.0
264San Fransco-6.0
265Navy-6.0
266Texas State-6.1
267F Dickinson-6.1
268Marist-6.1
269Southern-6.2
270Norfolk St-6.2
271Arkansas St-6.2
272Seattle-6.5
273Radford-6.5
274San Jose St-6.6
275Northern Kentucky-6.6
276NC Central-6.6
277South Carolina Upstate-6.7
278Liberty-6.8
279South Dakota-6.8
280Delaware-6.9
281Austin Peay-6.9
282Mt St Marys-7.0
283Charl South-7.1
284E Illinois-7.1
285Miami (OH)-7.2
286Binghamton-7.4
287Niagara-7.6
288SIU Edward-7.7
289Portland St-7.8
290TN Martin-7.8
291NW State-7.8
292W Carolina-7.9
293New Orleans-8.0
294VA Military-8.1
295Rob Morris-8.2
296App State-8.3
297Massachusetts Lowell-8.6
298American-8.7
299Loyola-MD-8.7
300Howard-8.7
301Jksnville St-8.8
302Kennesaw St-8.9
303Bryant-9.0
304Maryland BC-9.1
305S Car State-9.1
306Houston Bap-9.2
307SE Louisiana-9.2
308IL-Chicago-9.2
309Incarnate Word-9.3
310Campbell-9.3
311Alabama St-9.4
312N Colorado-9.4
313LIU-Brooklyn-9.4
314Utah Val St-9.5
315Morgan St-9.5
316Army-9.8
317St Fran (NY)-9.8
318Lafayette-9.9
319Longwood-10.1
320Hampton-10.3
321SE Missouri-10.4
322Sacred Hrt-10.8
323Lamar-11.0
324McNeese St-11.1
325Hartford-11.2
326Nicholls St-11.3
327St Fran (PA)-11.3
328NC A&T-11.7
329Chicago St-12.1
330Beth-Cook-12.2
331Savannah St-12.2
332Maryland ES-12.2
333Abilene Christian-12.2
334Central Ark-12.3
335S Utah-12.4
336N Arizona-12.4
337Grambling St-12.4
338Coppin State-12.5
339Delaware St-12.5
340Prairie View-12.5
341Citadel-13.3
342Ark Pine Bl-13.4
343TX-Pan Am-13.4
344Miss Val St-13.4
345Maine-13.9
346Alab A&M-14.0
347Presbyterian-14.1
348Alcorn State-14.3
349TX-San Ant-15.3
350Central Conn-16.1
351Florida A&M-16.9

As a final reminder, be sure to check out the season projections we create using these 2016 college basketball preseason rankings. There’s a ton to see: