September 5, 2016 - by David Hess
Here are the official TeamRankings 2016 NFL preseason rankings and ratings. Further explanation of our preseason ratings methodology and tips for interpreting the data follow below the table.
1 | Seattle | 6.2 |
---|---|---|
2 | Arizona | 6.0 |
3 | New England | 5.8 |
4 | Green Bay | 4.7 |
5 | Kansas City | 4.6 |
6 | Pittsburgh | 3.8 |
7 | Cincinnati | 3.7 |
8 | Carolina | 3.7 |
9 | Denver | 3.0 |
10 | Minnesota | 1.0 |
11 | Buffalo | 0.9 |
12 | Houston | 0.3 |
13 | Oakland | 0.2 |
14 | Indianapolis | -0.3 |
15 | Baltimore | -0.4 |
16 | NY Jets | -0.4 |
17 | San Diego | -0.7 |
18 | Los Angeles | -0.8 |
19 | Miami | -1.3 |
20 | Detroit | -1.7 |
21 | NY Giants | -1.8 |
22 | Atlanta | -1.9 |
23 | New Orleans | -2.0 |
24 | Jacksonville | -2.0 |
25 | Dallas | -2.2 |
26 | Chicago | -2.7 |
27 | Tampa Bay | -2.8 |
28 | Philadelphia | -3.4 |
29 | Washington | -3.4 |
30 | San Francisco | -3.9 |
31 | Tennessee | -5.8 |
32 | Cleveland | -6.1 |
Our 2016 NFL preseason rankings are almost entirely data-driven. We’ve used team data from past seasons to find which descriptive statistics have correlated strongly with high end-of-season power ratings. We then used those stats to create a model that predicts a team’s power rating.
Some examples of data points used in the model include:
We assign each input factor a weight based on its demonstrated level of predictive power.
The output is a power rating that represents how many points above or below average we think a team is, with 0.0 representing a “perfectly average” team.
Once we generate initial 2016 NFL preseason rankings & ratings, we then check them against the betting markets and other preseason ratings.
If our ranking for a team seems severely out of whack with those other sources, we’ll investigate. We check to see if there’s some factor that’s not taken into account by our model, that the betting market is picking up on. In some cases, we’ll manually adjust our rating to be a bit closer to the consensus. Though only rarely will we adjust it all the way to match the consensus.
It’s worth noting that these preseason ratings also drive our NFL season projections — at least before the season begins. As the 2016 season progresses, the impact of these preseason ratings will gradually fade, and actual game results will play a larger role in determining our team power ratings (which continue to drive the season projections).
Dear Hardcore Fan Of Team X, before you get angry that our models are obviously biased against your favorite team, please keep two things in mind:
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