Preseason Bracketology: 2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket

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UPDATE: Selection Sunday 2016

This is a great post — but now that 2016 NCAA bracket has been announced, here’s how to double or even triple your odds to win your bracket pool!

Get our 2016 NCAA bracket picks

(We even customize them for you pool’s scoring system!)

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Ladies and gentlemen, our projected #1 seeds in the 2016 NCAA tournament:

  • Duke
  • Kansas
  • Gonzaga
  • Arizona

Wait, what? But North Carolina is #1 in our preseason ratings. How did they end up as a #2 seed, while Duke nabbed a #1 spot?

That was our first reaction upon running these projections, so we dug a bit deeper. We’ll explain what we found in a second, but first, here’s our projected bracket.

Projected 2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket

(click to enlarge)

2016 NCAA tournament projected bracket (preseason)

 

[Note: We’re not worried about following the NCAA’s bracketing rules here. We know that, for example, Oklahoma can’t play Baylor in the first round. Our goal here is to show expected seed lines for each team, and give an idea of the rough quality of opponent they might face in each round. Trying to predict actual bracket matchups at this point is, well, pointless. Though we have to say, that potential Kentucky vs. Louisville Round of 32 matchup sure seems juicy.]

For details on how this bracket was created, see our original Madness Strikes November blog post. That post goes into more detail, but the basic idea is:

  1. Simulate the regular season
  2. Seed & play out conference tournaments
  3. Simulate NCAA tournament selection and seeding

For that last step, we use a model that’s been trained on historical selection committee decisions. Put another way, this model uses relevant historical data not to predict how the NCAA Selection Committee should select and seed teams, but rather to predict how it actually will select and seed teams. Sometimes the committee emphasizes things that aren’t necessarily tied to team quality, and that does get taken into account by our model.

Which brings us to the Duke-getting-a-1-seed-over-North-Carolina issue …

Why Are We Projecting Duke With Better 1-Seed Odds Than North Carolina?

There seem to be two main factors at work here:

  1. Duke is only 0.3 points behind North Carolina in our preseason ratings, so it’s not like they’re a significantly worse team. With equivalent schedules, we’d expect North Carolina to have only a very slight edge over Duke in a race for a #1 seed.
  2. Their schedules aren’t equivalent. Our model, which is based on historical seeding choices made by the selection committee, thinks that the dynamics of Duke’s schedule give the Blue Devils a slightly better chance to compile a resumé that looks more impressive to the Selection Committee — even if UNC is a slightly better team.

OK, so what is it about Duke’s schedule that leads to our model projecting them with higher #1 seed odds? We think it’s partly an issue of game location.

Historically, selection committees have rewarded big wins on neutral courts nearly as strongly as big road wins. If you look at Duke’s toughest future games, and North Carolina’s toughest future games, you’ll see that Duke’s toughest non-conference matchup is on a neutral court against Kentucky, whereas North Carolina’s is on the road against Texas.

Conveniently for our purposes, both teams have 57% projected win odds in those games. However, a neutral court win against Kentucky is likely going to end up looking better on Duke’s resume than a road win at Texas will on North Carolina’s.

That pattern holds across the schedule; Duke’s toughest games include more home and neutral site games than UNC’s. For games where the teams have equivalent win odds, Duke is actually facing on average a slightly better team — Duke’s degree of difficulty is coming more from opponent strength than from game location.

What this essentially means is that Duke is getting more resumé bang for their win odds buck, as the selection committee tends to reward beating good teams regardless of game location.

2016 Preseason Bracketology Odds For All 351 Teams

Of course, at this point in the season, there’s a very large margin of error on these projections. No team is currently projected with more than a 29% chance at a #1 seed, or a 95% chance to make the NCAA tournament.

Since those odds are the true output of our model (the bracket is created algorithmically based on the odds), here are our official 2016 NCAA Tournament preseason projected bracketology odds for every team, sorted by their probability of making the 2016 NCAA tournament. Bookmark this page for later, so you can come back and congratulate us on getting every single team correct. 😉

For a sortable table of similar odds that we update daily, check out our NCAA Bracket Projections detail page.

TR Bracket SeedTeamBidAutoAt LargeAvg Seed If In1-4 Seed1 Seed
2Wichita St95%60%34%4.555%20%
1Kansas94%35%59%3.766%28%
1Gonzaga94%61%34%4.161%27%
2N Carolina94%26%68%3.963%25%
1Duke93%24%69%3.666%29%
2Kentucky93%37%56%4.258%20%
1Arizona89%34%55%3.861%26%
3Virginia88%19%69%545%12%
2Villanova86%33%53%4.849%15%
3Maryland84%18%66%4.848%15%
3Michigan St76%17%58%5.536%10%
9Valparaiso75%57%18%911%1%
3Indiana74%17%57%5.336%11%
5Oklahoma72%15%57%6.326%5%
5Connecticut72%31%41%6.427%5%
5Cincinnati72%29%43%6.626%4%
4Iowa State70%14%56%5.733%9%
4Utah68%18%50%5.829%7%
12Ste F Austin68%59%9%10.92%0%
4California67%16%51%628%7%
4Baylor66%10%56%628%8%
5Purdue65%9%56%6.127%6%
6Davidson65%17%47%6.820%3%
8San Diego St63%25%38%7.218%2%
6VCU62%18%45%6.721%4%
6Texas62%11%51%6.820%4%
7Butler62%18%43%6.422%4%
12Stony Brook62%50%12%10.33%0%
6Wisconsin61%9%52%6.422%5%
7Georgetown61%16%46%6.722%4%
8Florida58%11%46%7.216%3%
7Louisville57%6%52%6.323%6%
7Michigan57%9%48%6.421%5%
8Xavier57%14%42%6.719%3%
10BYU57%19%38%7.812%1%
13Iona57%42%15%10.53%0%
8Rhode Island56%14%42%6.619%3%
9Miami (FL)56%5%51%7.115%2%
9Ohio State55%8%47%6.520%5%
10Vanderbilt54%10%44%6.916%3%
15N Mex State54%53%2%13.70%0%
9LSU52%12%40%6.518%3%
10Notre Dame52%5%47%6.816%3%
13UNLV52%31%21%8.89%1%
11Oregon51%9%42%716%3%
11Central Mich51%24%27%7.911%1%
10Geo Wshgtn50%16%35%7.114%2%
12Tulsa50%17%33%7.811%1%
13UAB50%37%13%105%0%
14Belmont50%41%9%11.81%0%
11W Virginia48%7%41%7.214%3%
14LA Lafayette48%37%11%11.12%0%
14S Dakota St48%41%8%121%0%
11Pittsburgh47%4%43%6.815%3%
12Dayton47%11%36%7.114%2%
12Texas A&M46%8%38%6.815%3%
12UCLA46%8%38%7.313%2%
15Coastal Car46%42%4%12.90%0%
Illinois45%5%39%6.915%3%
13Columbia43%36%7%96%1%
15N Florida43%42%1%13.70%0%
Boise State43%15%28%7.99%1%
Old Dominion41%20%20%9.34%0%
Syracuse40%3%36%7.311%2%
Richmond40%10%30%7.98%1%
14Hofstra38%27%11%10.52%0%
Iowa38%4%33%7.78%1%
NC State38%2%35%7.88%1%
Illinois St38%11%27%8.95%0%
Georgia St38%29%9%11.51%0%
Memphis35%13%22%7.87%2%
Oklahoma St35%5%30%7.87%1%
Vermont35%29%5%11.80%0%
16NC Central34%34%0%14.70%0%
N Iowa34%10%24%9.92%0%
16TX Southern33%33%0%15.70%0%
Akron33%18%15%9.73%0%
S Carolina32%6%27%79%2%
Georgia32%4%28%7.68%1%
Oregon St31%4%27%8.55%0%
Pepperdine31%9%22%9.42%0%
15Lehigh30%25%5%12.40%0%
Clemson30%2%28%86%1%
Florida St30%2%28%8.25%1%
Evansville30%10%20%8.84%0%
LA Tech30%15%15%9.92%0%
Wm & Mary30%19%12%111%0%
16UCSB29%20%9%11.71%0%
New Mexico29%10%19%8.65%0%
16Wofford28%25%3%13.90%0%
Yale28%22%6%10.71%0%
Murray St28%23%5%12.10%0%
NJIT28%27%1%14.10%0%
GA Tech27%2%25%7.96%1%
UC Irvine27%18%8%11.41%0%
16Montana26%24%2%14.20%0%
Princeton26%22%4%10.71%0%
Providence25%5%21%8.25%1%
Boston U25%22%3%12.90%0%
Cal Poly24%18%6%11.61%0%
Northeastrn24%16%8%12.10%0%
High Point24%23%1%13.90%0%
Temple23%7%16%9.92%0%
Kent State23%12%11%10.21%0%
Middle Tenn23%10%13%10.31%0%
Buffalo23%12%11%10.51%0%
Hawaii23%19%4%11.50%0%
N Dakota St23%21%2%13.80%0%
Chattanooga23%21%2%140%0%
Bucknell22%19%2%12.90%0%
Weber State22%20%2%14.20%0%
Creighton21%5%16%8.53%0%
Mississippi21%3%18%9.22%0%
Arkansas19%2%17%8.33%0%
Utah State19%6%13%9.61%0%
16LIU-Brooklyn18%18%0%150%0%
USC18%3%15%83%0%
Colorado18%3%14%8.33%0%
Seton Hall18%4%14%8.73%0%
St Josephs18%4%15%8.83%0%
Stanford18%2%16%9.12%0%
E Washingtn18%18%1%14.50%0%
Mt St Marys18%17%0%15.10%0%
Norfolk St18%18%0%15.20%0%
Tennessee17%2%15%9.12%0%
Arizona St17%2%14%9.12%0%
Lg Beach St17%12%5%12.70%0%
Southern17%17%0%15.80%0%
Jackson St17%17%0%15.80%0%
James Mad16%12%4%11.61%0%
Mercer16%16%1%14.20%0%
Rob Morris16%16%0%15.30%0%
Colorado St15%6%9%9.31%0%
Alabama15%2%13%9.41%0%
WI-Grn Bay15%12%3%12.90%0%
Rider15%12%2%13.70%0%
CS Bakersfld15%15%0%15.40%0%
Marquette14%4%10%8.32%0%
Minnesota14%1%12%8.42%0%
Miss State14%2%12%8.52%0%
La Salle14%2%12%9.51%0%
NW State14%13%1%14.10%0%
St Fran (NY)14%14%0%15.20%0%
Hampton14%14%0%15.30%0%
St Bonavent13%3%11%9.21%0%
U Mass13%3%10%9.41%0%
Albany13%12%1%13.50%0%
St Marys12%4%8%9.51%0%
Wake Forest12%0%11%10.11%0%
Toledo12%7%5%11.10%0%
Harvard12%10%3%11.30%0%
SC Upstate12%11%0%14.70%0%
Fla Gulf Cst12%11%0%14.70%0%
UMKC12%12%0%15.60%0%
Fresno St11%4%7%101%0%
Manhattan11%9%2%13.70%0%
Army11%11%1%140%0%
Sam Hous St11%10%1%14.20%0%
Monmouth11%9%1%14.20%0%
Alabama St11%11%0%15.90%0%
Alab A&M11%11%0%15.90%0%
Northwestern10%1%9%8.51%0%
Indiana St10%3%7%10.70%0%
E Michigan10%5%5%11.20%0%
W Michigan10%6%5%11.50%0%
Detroit10%8%2%12.50%0%
Oral Roberts10%9%1%14.40%0%
Bryant10%10%0%15.20%0%
Loyola-Chi9%3%5%101%0%
TX El Paso9%6%3%10.90%0%
LA Monroe9%7%1%13.70%0%
Canisius9%8%1%13.70%0%
American9%8%1%13.90%0%
Denver9%8%0%14.40%0%
Sacred Hrt9%9%0%15.30%0%
Auburn8%1%8%9.91%0%
Miami (OH)8%5%3%11.40%0%
Wright State8%6%2%12.50%0%
Oakland8%7%1%13.50%0%
Delaware8%6%1%13.70%0%
Morehead St8%7%1%13.90%0%
E Kentucky8%8%1%14.20%0%
TX A&M-CC8%8%0%14.70%0%
W Carolina8%8%0%14.70%0%
NC-Grnsboro8%8%0%150%0%
Winthrop8%7%0%15.10%0%
N Arizona8%8%0%15.10%0%
Howard8%8%0%15.50%0%
Seattle8%8%0%15.60%0%
Ball State7%5%2%11.40%0%
NC-Wilmgton7%6%2%12.70%0%
Drexel7%6%2%12.90%0%
N Hampshire7%7%1%13.90%0%
Fairfield7%6%1%13.90%0%
Furman7%6%0%14.90%0%
E Tenn St7%6%0%150%0%
VA Military7%6%0%15.10%0%
Wagner7%7%0%15.30%0%
Idaho7%7%0%15.30%0%
Siena7%7%0%15.30%0%
St Fran (PA)7%7%0%15.40%0%
Utah Val St7%7%0%15.70%0%
W Kentucky6%3%3%11.30%0%
Bowling Grn6%4%2%12.10%0%
Cleveland St6%5%1%12.80%0%
UC Riverside6%5%1%14.10%0%
Loyola-MD6%6%1%14.10%0%
TN Martin6%5%0%14.80%0%
IPFW6%6%0%14.90%0%
Gard-Webb6%6%0%15.10%0%
NC-Asheville6%6%0%15.20%0%
Sac State6%6%0%15.40%0%
Portland St6%6%0%15.40%0%
Maryland ES6%6%0%15.70%0%
NC A&T6%6%0%15.80%0%
Prairie View6%6%0%15.90%0%
Wash State5%1%5%9.80%0%
Texas Tech5%0%4%10.20%0%
San Diego5%2%3%11.10%0%
Pacific5%1%3%11.20%0%
WI-Milwkee5%4%1%13.40%0%
UC Davis5%4%1%13.40%0%
Texas State5%4%1%13.90%0%
Towson5%4%1%140%0%
TX-Arlington5%5%0%14.10%0%
AR Lit Rock5%5%0%14.10%0%
Lipscomb5%5%0%14.90%0%
Radford5%5%0%15.30%0%
Ark Pine Bl5%5%0%160%0%
Duquesne4%1%3%9.80%0%
Saint Louis4%1%3%9.80%0%
Penn State4%0%4%9.90%0%
Geo Mason4%1%3%10.40%0%
DePaul4%1%3%10.70%0%
Wyoming4%2%2%10.80%0%
Dartmouth4%4%0%12.40%0%
U Penn4%4%0%12.60%0%
S Alabama4%4%1%13.90%0%
Arkansas St4%4%0%14.40%0%
SE Missouri4%4%0%14.70%0%
TN State4%4%0%14.70%0%
W Illinois4%4%0%15.10%0%
Neb Omaha4%4%0%15.20%0%
Charl South4%4%0%15.30%0%
IUPUI4%4%0%15.30%0%
N Colorado4%3%0%15.40%0%
S Utah4%4%0%15.40%0%
Morgan St4%4%0%15.80%0%
Washington3%0%3%9.40%0%
Nebraska3%0%3%9.50%0%
VA Tech3%0%3%9.60%0%
Kansas St3%0%3%9.70%0%
Houston3%1%2%10.40%0%
Portland3%1%2%10.90%0%
Nevada3%1%2%110%0%
San Fransco3%2%2%11.30%0%
Ohio3%2%1%11.70%0%
Marshall3%2%2%12.20%0%
N Illinois3%2%1%12.30%0%
Rice3%2%1%12.70%0%
TN Tech3%3%0%14.10%0%
Col Charlestn3%2%0%14.30%0%
Elon3%2%0%14.30%0%
App State3%3%0%14.40%0%
Lafayette3%3%0%14.50%0%
Holy Cross3%3%0%14.60%0%
Quinnipiac3%3%0%14.80%0%
CS Fullerton3%2%0%14.80%0%
St Peters3%3%0%14.80%0%
Lamar3%3%0%14.90%0%
South Dakota3%3%0%15.10%0%
Campbell3%3%0%15.40%0%
Jacksonville3%3%0%15.40%0%
Savannah St3%3%0%15.70%0%
Samford3%3%0%15.70%0%
TX-Pan Am3%3%0%15.80%0%
Chicago St3%3%0%15.80%0%
Beth-Cook3%3%0%15.90%0%
TX Christian2%0%2%9.80%0%
Missouri2%0%2%10.40%0%
E Carolina2%1%1%110%0%
S Illinois2%1%1%11.20%0%
Missouri St2%1%2%11.30%0%
Santa Clara2%1%1%11.90%0%
Charlotte2%2%1%130%0%
Brown2%2%0%13.10%0%
Fla Atlantic2%1%1%13.40%0%
Austin Peay2%1%0%14.40%0%
E Illinois2%2%0%14.70%0%
GA Southern2%2%0%14.80%0%
Navy2%2%0%14.90%0%
Colgate2%2%0%15.20%0%
SE Louisiana2%2%0%15.40%0%
North Dakota2%2%0%15.60%0%
Longwood2%2%0%15.70%0%
F Dickinson2%2%0%15.70%0%
Montana St2%2%0%15.80%0%
Delaware St2%2%0%15.90%0%
S Car State2%2%0%15.90%0%
Fordham1%0%0%9.70%0%
St Johns1%0%1%10.50%0%
Tulane1%0%1%11.50%0%
Central FL1%1%1%11.60%0%
Air Force1%1%1%11.90%0%
Drake1%1%0%120%0%
S Florida1%1%1%120%0%
Cornell1%1%0%13.50%0%
TX-San Ant1%1%0%13.60%0%
Florida Intl1%1%0%13.60%0%
Youngs St1%1%0%14.20%0%
IL-Chicago1%1%0%14.80%0%
Binghamton1%1%0%14.80%0%
Hartford1%1%0%14.80%0%
Troy1%1%0%14.80%0%
Cal St Nrdge1%1%0%15.10%0%
SIU Edward1%1%0%15.20%0%
Houston Bap1%1%0%15.30%0%
Marist1%1%0%15.30%0%
Niagara1%1%0%15.30%0%
McNeese St1%1%0%15.50%0%
Presbyterian1%1%0%15.60%0%
New Orleans1%1%0%15.60%0%
Central Conn1%1%0%15.60%0%
Liberty1%1%0%15.80%0%
Idaho State1%1%0%15.80%0%
Boston Col0%0%0%9.10%0%
Rutgers0%0%0%9.90%0%
Bradley0%0%0%12.20%0%
Loyola Mymt0%0%0%12.90%0%
North Texas0%0%0%14.60%0%
Maine0%0%0%15.20%0%
Jksnville St0%0%0%15.40%0%
Maryland BC0%0%0%15.40%0%
Nicholls St0%0%0%15.60%0%
Kennesaw St0%0%0%15.70%0%
Coppin State0%0%0%160%0%
Citadel0%0%0%160%0%
Miss Val St0%0%0%160%0%
Grambling St0%0%0%160%0%
Massachusetts Lowell0%0%0%00%0%
Incarnate Word0%0%0%00%0%
N Kentucky0%0%0%00%0%
Grand Canyon0%0%0%00%0%
Central Ark0%0%0%00%0%
Abilene Christian0%0%0%00%0%
S Methodist0%0%0%00%0%
San Jose St0%0%0%00%0%
Florida A&M0%0%0%00%0%
Stetson0%0%0%00%0%
Alcorn State0%0%0%00%0%
S Mississippi0%0%0%00%0%

Finally, here’s a quick reminder. If you haven’t checked out the rest of our projections, please do! They include: