College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings For 2015-16

We’re finished crunching the numbers, and we’ve loaded our official preseason team ratings for the 2015-2016 college basketball season into our database. These are the ratings that drive our preseason projections, and serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses.

(Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Just like last season, below you’ll find a preseason top 25 comparison between TeamRankings, Ken Pomeroy, the AP poll, and more. We’ve also posted the full rankings and ratings for all 351 Division I teams.

Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every day throughout the season.

Ratings Method & Accuracy

The basic idea is that we establish a baseline prediction for a team, given their power ratings from recent years, and assuming an average amount of roster turnover. Then we make some adjustments based on how much value each team is returning on offense and defense, as well as the strength of their recruiting classes from the past few years, and the value of any transfers they’ve added this season.

For a more complete description, check out our blog post from two years ago. The main thing that’s changed since then is simply that we refit the model with another year of data.

Before we get to the rankings themselves, it’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy has compared our conference win projections with his and a couple other stat-based prognosticators the last three years. In terms of average error, both last year and the year before we finished second best out of four (beating Pomeroy both years, but finishing a hair behind Dan Hanner), and three years ago we finished as the best of three.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have more than held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems, and we expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project 351 teams.

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:

The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system, along with an average rank, and finally a column showing how far TR is from the consensus (positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse). Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.

2015-16 College Basketball Preseason Rankings Comparison
TeamTRKPDHAPCoachesAVGTR Diff
N Carolina171122.41.4
Kentucky523212.6-2.4
Kansas242453.41.4
Duke314543.40.4
Virginia436665.01.0
Villanova9581198.4-0.6
Arizona661112109.03.0
Gonzaga8899119.01.0
Maryland10245339.0-1.0
Wichita St7157101210.23.2
Oklahoma1311128810.4-2.6
Iowa St1419107711.4-2.6
Indiana111314151513.62.6
Michigan St121815131314.22.2
Utah161216161615.2-0.8
Wisconsin18934171719.01.0
Notre Dame251623191820.2-4.8
Baylor171037222121.44.4
SMU21231727--22.01.0
California224713141422.00.0
Purdue192226232523.04.0
Michigan241727252623.8-0.2
Connecticut273219202424.4-2.6
Louisville202522322725.25.2
Vanderbilt362033182025.4-10.6
Butler232936242226.83.8
Cincinnati291431303127.0-2.0
Texas153420353427.612.6
Georgetown302718333027.6-2.4
Miami FL262125313728.02.0
W Virginia312832282328.4-2.6
LSU324930211930.2-1.8
Xavier333121393632.0-1.0
San Diego St434024463838.2-4.8

A few points stick out:

  • We rank North Carolina #1, as do Dan Hanner and the AP Poll. The Coaches Poll has Kentucky #1, and Ken Pomeroy has Duke in the top spot.
  • Compared to the crowd, we’re most pessimistic about Vanderbilt, who we rank 3 to 18 spots lower than other projections. Vandy is returning a large fraction of their production from last year, but they weren’t rated all that highly last season, so that returning production isn’t as much of a boone as it would be to a better team. In addition, they have zero consensus top-100 freshman recruits, and their ratings history from the prior few season sets a low baseline for the program.
  • On the other hand, we’re more optimistic about Texas, who we rank 5 to 20 spots higher than other projections. Despite their mediocre record last year, Texas’s power rating was in the top 20 to end the season. Among teams ranked that high, only 6 had better recruiting classes, only 5 returned a higher fraction of their 2014-15 production, and only 1 (Kansas) did both of those things. (Our ratings don’t “know” that Shaka Smart is taking over as head coach, but that doesn’t seem like a bad thing, either.)
  • We’ve got Kentucky ranked #5, while they’re no lower than #3 in other projections. That may not seem like a big difference, but if you look past the ranking and examine the underlying ratings (posted at the end of this article), we have Kentucky closer to being #13 than to being #1.

Why Don’t We Have Kentucky Higher?

Let’s dig a little deeper on our relatively low Kentucky rating. Kentucky has lost star players and reloaded in the past; why would this year be any different? Several reasons:

  • Our estimates show this year’s team returning only 12% of its 2014-15 production, which would be the third-lowest value in Calipari’s seven year tenure.
  • In addition, the Wildcats lost four first round draft picks from last year’s team; that’s only the third time so much talent has departed Lexington at once.
  • Finally, based on our analysis of the RSCI recruiting rankings, this is Calipari’s second worst incoming freshman class at Kentucky.

The two past Calipari-at-Kentucky seasons with profiles that most closely match the above bullet points are 2010-11 (when a young Kentucky team earned a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament, then made a run to the Final Four the year before winning it all), and 2012-13 (when Kentucky missed the NCAA tournament entirely).

One thing does set this year’s team apart from those two past examples, though — Kentucky’s 2014-15 power rating was by far the highest in Calipari’s tenure. That high baseline means that even if Kentucky’s rating drops as much as it did in those two past examples, the Wildcats will still be a very good team. That’s what keeps them in our top five.

Full Rankings, From #1 To #351

Here’s the full list.

Keep in mind that sometimes teams can be separated by several ranking spots, but have nearly identical ratings. On the flip side of the coin, two teams can be ranked adjacent to each other, but can have a big ratings gap.

This is important at the top of the rankings this season. #1 North Carolina, #2 Kansas, and #3 Duke are separated by less than half a ratings point total. But #4 Virginia is a full 1.4 ratings points behind Duke. So our preseason ratings essentially see a triumvirate of “best teams in the land.”

[UPDATE: After posting these ratings, it was announced that David Collette is leaving Utah State. We’ve the ratings in this post to account for that.]

RankTeamRating
1N Carolina19.7
2Kansas19.6
3Duke19.4
4Virginia18.0
5Kentucky17.7
6Arizona17.0
7Wichita St16.6
8Gonzaga16.5
9Villanova16.4
10Maryland16.3
11Indiana15.9
12Michigan St15.8
13Oklahoma15.3
14Iowa State14.6
15Texas13.8
16Utah13.5
17Baylor13.4
18Wisconsin13.3
19Purdue13.3
20Louisville13.3
21S Methodist13.2
22California13.1
23Butler13.1
24Michigan13.0
25Notre Dame12.8
26Miami (FL)12.8
27Connecticut12.7
28Ohio State12.6
29Cincinnati12.3
30Georgetown12.2
31W Virginia11.9
32LSU11.9
33Xavier11.8
34Florida11.8
35Pittsburgh11.6
36Vanderbilt11.0
37VCU11.0
38Illinois11.0
39Syracuse10.9
40Davidson10.8
41Oregon10.7
42Iowa10.5
43San Diego St10.4
44Geo Wshgtn10.4
45NC State10.4
46Oklahoma St10.3
47Texas A&M10.2
48Valparaiso10.2
49UCLA10.2
50Rhode Island9.8
51Tulsa9.6
52Florida St9.3
53BYU9.2
54GA Tech8.9
55Clemson8.9
56S Carolina8.7
57Dayton8.6
58Ste F Austin8.6
59Richmond8.4
60Memphis8.3
61Stony Brook8.0
62Oregon St8.0
63Georgia7.9
64UNLV7.8
65Creighton7.6
66Boise State7.5
67Providence7.4
68Iona7.0
69Marquette6.8
70Illinois St6.6
71Minnesota6.6
72Colorado6.5
73N Iowa6.5
74Northwestern6.4
75Mississippi6.4
76Seton Hall6.4
77Evansville6.3
78USC6.1
79Central Mich6.1
80Old Dominion6.1
81New Mexico6.0
82UAB5.9
83Arkansas5.9
84Temple5.8
85Tennessee5.8
86Pepperdine5.8
87Stanford5.7
88Arizona St5.6
89Wake Forest5.5
90LA Lafayette5.5
91Columbia5.4
92S Dakota St5.3
93Belmont5.3
94Alabama5.3
95Vermont5.1
96Hofstra4.9
97Akron4.7
98LA Tech4.7
99Miss State4.5
100St Josephs4.5
101Georgia St4.2
102Coastal Car3.8
103Colorado St3.7
104Utah State3.7
105St Bonavent3.7
106UCSB3.6
107U Mass3.6
108Hawaii3.5
109La Salle3.4
110Princeton3.4
111VA Tech3.3
112UC Irvine3.3
113Yale3.2
114Wm & Mary3.1
115Auburn3.0
116Middle Tenn3.0
117Cal Poly3.0
118Nebraska2.9
119Texas Tech2.9
120Kent State2.8
121Buffalo2.7
122Penn State2.7
123Kansas St2.5
124Northeastrn2.4
125N Florida2.3
126Loyola-Chi2.2
127Lehigh2.2
128St Marys2.2
129Wash State2.1
130N Mex State2.1
131Murray St2.0
132DePaul1.9
133TX Christian1.9
134Indiana St1.7
135Fresno St1.7
136Boston U1.7
137WI-Grn Bay1.5
138North Dakota State1.4
139Albany1.4
140Wofford1.3
141Lg Beach St1.1
142Bucknell1.0
143James Mad0.8
144Toledo0.8
145Washington0.8
146Duquesne0.7
147NC Central0.6
148Missouri0.5
149Chattanooga0.5
150Rider0.4
151TX El Paso0.4
152Saint Louis0.3
153New Jersey Tech0.2
154Montana0.1
155High Point0.1
156Harvard-0.1
157W Michigan-0.2
158St Johns-0.2
159Detroit-0.2
160Geo Mason-0.3
161NW State-0.3
162San Diego-0.4
163Houston-0.4
164Ball State-0.5
165E Michigan-0.5
166Miami (OH)-0.6
167Oakland-0.6
168Weber State-0.6
169Wyoming-0.8
170N Hampshire-0.9
171Wright State-0.9
172Monmouth-1.0
173Manhattan-1.1
174San Fransco-1.1
175Pacific-1.1
176Portland-1.1
177Sam Hous St-1.1
178Army-1.2
179Mercer-1.2
180E Washingtn-1.4
181Canisius-1.5
182Nevada-1.5
183Delaware-1.6
184Boston Col-1.7
185Bowling Grn-1.7
186E Carolina-1.7
187W Kentucky-1.8
188LA Monroe-2.0
189Cleveland St-2.0
190Fordham-2.0
191NC-Wilmgton-2.0
192Missouri St-2.0
193Drexel-2.1
194UC Riverside-2.1
195American-2.2
196TX A&M-CC-2.3
197Santa Clara-2.3
198E Kentucky-2.3
199S Illinois-2.4
200Oral Roberts-2.4
201WI-Milwkee-2.5
202Fairfield-2.6
203LIU-Brooklyn-2.6
204U Penn-2.6
205S Florida-2.7
206Morehead St-2.7
207Mt St Marys-2.8
208Marshall-2.9
209Denver-2.9
210Rutgers-2.9
211Norfolk St-2.9
212Rob Morris-3.0
213UC Davis-3.0
214Grand Canyon-3.0
215Central FL-3.1
216Dartmouth-3.2
217Rice-3.2
218Towson-3.2
219AR Lit Rock-3.2
220Tulane-3.3
221TX-Arlington-3.4
222South Carolina Upstate-3.5
223Loyola-MD-3.5
224Drake-3.5
225Texas State-3.5
226N Illinois-3.5
227St Fran (NY)-3.6
228TX Southern-3.6
229Fla Gulf Cst-3.6
230TN Martin-3.7
231Charlotte-3.7
232Air Force-3.8
233Ohio-3.9
234NC-Grnsboro-4.1
235Hampton-4.1
236W Carolina-4.1
237S Alabama-4.2
238IPFW-4.3
239Arkansas St-4.3
240Fla Atlantic-4.5
241SE Missouri-4.7
242Furman-4.7
243N Arizona-4.8
244E Tenn St-4.8
245Winthrop-4.8
246VA Military-4.9
247CS Fullerton-4.9
248Col Charlestn-4.9
249Brown-5.0
250CS Bakersfld-5.0
251Bryant-5.0
252Lafayette-5.1
253TN State-5.1
254Elon-5.2
255Sacred Hrt-5.2
256Holy Cross-5.2
257Incarnate Word-5.3
258App State-5.3
259Lamar-5.4
260Idaho-5.4
261TN Tech-5.5
262Quinnipiac-5.5
263Siena-5.6
264Portland St-5.6
265NC-Asheville-5.7
266IUPUI-5.7
267W Illinois-5.8
268St Peters-5.8
269Gard-Webb-5.9
270GA Southern-6.0
271Wagner-6.0
272Nebraska Omaha-6.0
273TX-San Ant-6.1
274St Fran (PA)-6.1
275UMKC-6.1
276Sac State-6.1
277Lipscomb-6.3
278S Mississippi-6.4
279Florida Intl-6.4
280South Dakota-6.5
281Northern Kentucky-6.5
282Hartford-6.6
283SE Louisiana-6.6
284Loyola Mymt-6.7
285Howard-6.7
286Colgate-6.7
287Youngs St-6.8
288Radford-6.8
289Cornell-6.8
290Navy-6.9
291E Illinois-6.9
292Jackson St-6.9
293Southern-7.1
294Seattle-7.3
295S Utah-7.3
296Cal St Nrdge-7.4
297Charl South-7.4
298NC A&T-7.5
299IL-Chicago-7.5
300North Texas-7.6
301Maryland ES-7.6
302Austin Peay-7.8
303Samford-7.9
304N Colorado-8.0
305Troy-8.0
306Campbell-8.1
307Jacksonville-8.1
308Binghamton-8.3
309Utah Val St-8.3
310Bradley-8.4
311Houston Bap-8.6
312Massachusetts Lowell-8.7
313New Orleans-8.7
314Alabama St-8.8
315Niagara-8.9
316Marist-8.9
317Morgan St-8.9
318Longwood-8.9
319Alab A&M-9.2
320SIU Edward-9.7
321McNeese St-9.9
322Maine-10.0
323F Dickinson-10.0
324Montana St-10.1
325Stetson-10.1
326Savannah St-10.4
327North Dakota-10.5
328Beth-Cook-10.5
329Presbyterian-10.7
330Delaware St-10.9
331Chicago St-11.0
332Jksnville St-11.1
333Nicholls St-11.2
334S Car State-11.3
335Prairie View-11.4
336Idaho State-11.7
337TX-Pan Am-11.7
338Abilene Christian-12.1
339Central Conn-12.2
340San Jose St-12.2
341Ark Pine Bl-12.2
342Maryland BC-12.5
343Citadel-12.9
344Liberty-13.1
345Kennesaw St-14.0
346Alcorn State-14.3
347Central Ark-14.8
348Coppin State-17.4
349Florida A&M-17.7
350Miss Val St-20.0
351Grambling St-23.3

As a final reminder, be sure to check out the season projections we create using these ratings. There’s a ton to see: