October 28, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman
Last weekend brought two more huge upsets we profiled in our previous Upset Watch column:
Another game profiled last week, Atlanta at Tennessee, was decided by a field goal, with the underdog Titans’s potentially winning drive in the final minutes cut short by an interception.
This week we’re highlighting seven more football underdogs getting no respect from the public.
(Note: All expectation numbers listed above are based on the numbers we publish in our upset watch blog posts.)
The two upsets last week were again slightly lower than expected for the week (2.4), so we’re trailing our expectations by a little over one game so far this season.
Rather than just present the most likely upsets to happen (you can find those on our premium NFL most likely upsets and college football most likely upsets pages), what we do in this column is highlight a series of games that generally meet two criteria:
What that means is that we still expect each of the individual teams we highlight in this column to lose (i.e. they all have under 50% win odds). But as a group, if a few of the following teams end up winning, that would qualify as a huge surprise according to the public’s expectations — but not to us.
Important note: All pick odds and betting lines quoted in this post were accurate as of 10/28, and may have changed since then.
Cleveland (home) over Arizona
Underdog | Favorite | Point Spread | Upset Odds | Public Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland | vs. Arizona | ARI by 4.5 | 40.1% | 10.0% |
The Cardinals are playing on a short week after beating Baltimore on Monday night, and have lost two of their last four games. Cleveland is only 1-2 at home, but haven’t lost by more than a touchdown on their home turf.
San Francisco (away) over St. Louis
Underdog | Favorite | Point Spread | Upset Odds | Public Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco | at St. Louis | STL by 8.0 | 26.4% | 9.0% |
The 49ers are big underdogs after getting embarrassed by Seattle, but they have extra rest after a Thursday night game. While the San Francisco defense has been leaky, they’ve also held opposing teams to only 4.0 yards per carry. St. Louis has improved their offense with the help of running back Todd Gurley, but rank dead last in passing yards.
San Francisco at St. Louis Matchup
Tampa Bay (away) over Atlanta
Underdog | Favorite | Point Spread | Upset Odds | Public Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay | at Atlanta | ATL by 7.5 | 20.1% | 3.0% |
The Falcons are big favorites, but it’s hard to overlook their struggles over the last three weeks. They needed overtime to beat Washington and edged out Tennessee by only three points last week. The Bucs have played better recently, defeating Jacksonville in Week 5 and losing to Washington on the road by only one point in Week 6.
Miami (away) over New England
Underdog | Favorite | Point Spread | Upset Odds | Public Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
Miami | at New England | MIA by 8.0 | 22.0% | 6.0% |
A sleeper team according to many experts entering the year, the Dolphins have looked like a new squad over the last two weeks after replacing ex-head coach Joe Philbin. They’ve won their last two games by a combined 46 points. New England, meanwhile, underperformed Vegas expectations in Sunday’s victory over the Jets.
Texas Tech (home) over Oklahoma State
Underdog | Favorite | Point Spread | Upset Odds | Public Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Tech | vs. Oklahoma State | OSU by 3.0 | 38.4% | 7.0% |
While Oklahoma State remains undefeated, they’ve played only one opponent in the top 50 of our predictive rankings. On the other hand, Texas Tech’s three losses are all against teams currently ranked in our top 10. Tech’s only home loss was vs. TCU, by only three points.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech Matchup
Georgia (neutral) over Florida
Underdog | Favorite | Point Spread | Upset Odds | Public Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | vs. Florida | FLA by 3.0 | 40.9% | 14.0% |
Florida has played only one game after losing starting quarterback Will Grier, when they lost by a touchdown at LSU; the jury is still out on how they’ll fare without him. Like Florida, Georgia is returning from an off week after losing a star (RB Nick Chubb), but appears underrated in this rivalry matchup with the SEC East crown at stake.
NC State (home) vs. Clemson
Underdog | Favorite | Point Spread | Upset Odds | Public Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
NC State | vs. Clemson | CLEM by 10.0 | 21.5% | 0.0% |
Clemson crushed off a Miami team that had seemingly given up last week, and they’re on the road for the second week in a row. NC State has two losses this season, but both came against teams ranked in the top 50 of our predictive rankings. Virtually none of the public has picked NC State to win, but they might just catch the Tigers sleeping.
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