October 26, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman
There weren’t many high-profile games in Week 8, but there were still plenty of exciting upsets, close calls, and resulting shake ups in the rankings. “Who’s Number One?” has perhaps never been more in question this season than it is following the past weekend’s games.
Here’s how things stand entering Week 9.
To review, when we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our college football predictive ratings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games.
Our rankings are driven by margins of victory. Unlike human voters and opinions, they don’t care only about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). More specifically, this means:
In addition, our rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of the preseason rating (which you can find in our 2015 preseason college football rankings post) decays as the season goes on.
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson | 23.6 | +5.6 | 2 | 9 | W 58-0 @ #33 Miami (FL) |
Troy | -13.3 | +4.6 | 104 | 114 | W 52-7 @ #125 N Mex State |
Bowling Grn | 6.3 | +3.7 | 46 | 57 | W 48-0 @ #106 Kent State |
San Diego St | -1.1 | +3.5 | 71 | 81 | W 48-14 vs. #42 Utah State |
Houston | 10.6 | +3.4 | 30 | 43 | W 59-10 @ #104 Central FL |
Buffalo | -8.5 | +2.6 | 93 | 100 | W 41-17 vs. #90 Ohio |
LA Tech | 4.4 | +2.2 | 53 | 59 | W 45-16 vs. #65 Middle Tenn |
Idaho | -19.2 | +2.1 | 118 | 121 | W 27-13 vs. #109 LA Monroe |
Texas State | -16.3 | +2.1 | 111 | 115 | W 36-18 vs. #118 S Alabama |
Oklahoma | 23.3 | +2.0 | 4 | 3 | W 63-27 vs. #36 Texas Tech |
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami (FL) | 3.5 | -5.5 | 55 | 33 | L 58-0 vs. #9 Clemson |
Utah State | 2.4 | -4.9 | 60 | 42 | L 48-14 @ #81 San Diego St |
N Mex State | -28.7 | -3.9 | 128 | 125 | L 52-7 vs. #114 Troy |
Kent State | -17.8 | -3.4 | 113 | 106 | L 48-0 vs. #57 Bowling Grn |
Fla Atlantic | -18.1 | -2.6 | 115 | 110 | L 27-17 @ #126 TX El Paso |
Middle Tenn | -1.8 | -2.6 | 75 | 65 | L 45-16 @ #59 LA Tech |
Central FL | -16.3 | -2.5 | 110 | 104 | L 59-10 vs. #43 Houston |
Charlotte | -27.6 | -2.4 | 126 | 127 | L 44-10 vs. #84 S Mississippi |
Rutgers | -5.7 | -2.4 | 87 | 78 | L 49-7 vs. #5 Ohio State |
Baylor | 24.8 | -2.3 | 1 | 1 | W 45-27 vs. #83 Iowa State |
Team | Rank | AP Rank | TR Change | AP Change | Rating | Result | SOS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor (7-0) | 1 | 2 | 24.8 | W 45-27 vs. #83 Iowa State | 0.9 | ||
Clemson (7-0) | 2 | 3 | +7 | +3 | 23.6 | W 58-0 @ #33 Miami (FL) | 7.8 |
Alabama (7-1) | 3 | 7 | -1 | +1 | 23.6 | w 19-14 vs. #17 Tennessee | 10.9 |
Oklahoma (6-1) | 4 | 14 | -1 | +3 | 23.3 | W 63-27 vs. #36 Texas Tech | 7.5 |
Ohio State (8-0) | 5 | 1 | 21.1 | W 49-7 @ #78 Rutgers | 0.2 | ||
USC (4-3) | 6 | 20.3 | W 42-24 vs. #10 Utah | 10.2 | |||
TX Christian (7-0) | 7 | 5 | -3 | -1 | 19.5 | DNP | 2.2 |
Notre Dame (6-1) | 8 | 9 | -1 | +2 | 19.3 | DNP | 9.7 |
Stanford (6-1) | 9 | 8 | -1 | +2 | 18.5 | W 31-14 vs. #34 Washington | 7.4 |
LSU (7-0) | 10 | 4 | +3 | +1 | 17.5 | W 48-20 vs. #39 W Kentucky | 6.3 |
Michigan (5-2) | 11 | 15 | 17.2 | DNP | 4.8 | ||
Mississippi (6-2) | 12 | 19 | +5 | 17.1 | W 23-3 vs. #15 Texas A&M | 8.9 | |
Utah (6-1) | 13 | 13 | -3 | -10 | 15.8 | L 42-24 @ #6 USC | 8.4 |
Tennessee (3-4) | 14 | +3 | 15.7 | L 19-14 @ #2 Alabama | 12.5 | ||
Florida (6-1) | 15 | 11 | -1 | +2 | 15.2 | DNP | 8.1 |
Miss State (6-2) | 16 | 25 | +5 | 14.8 | W 42-16 vs. #71 Kentucky | 4.6 | |
Oklahoma St (7-0) | 17 | 12 | +5 | +2 | 14.4 | W 58-10 vs. #116 Kansas | 2.3 |
Florida St (6-1) | 18 | 17 | -2 | -8 | 14.1 | L 22-16 @ #26 GA Tech | 2.8 |
UCLA (5-2) | 19 | 24 | +4 | 13.5 | W 40-24 vs. #25 California | 6.2 | |
Texas A&M (5-2) | 20 | -5 | 13.5 | L 23-3 @ #17 Mississippi | 9.0 | ||
W Virginia (3-3) | 21 | -1 | 13.4 | DNP | 9.5 | ||
Georgia (5-2) | 22 | -3 | 13.2 | DNP | 5.4 | ||
GA Tech (3-5) | 23 | +3 | 12.9 | W 22-16 vs. #20 Florida St | 9.5 | ||
Boise State (6-2) | 24 | -6 | 12.3 | W 34-14 vs. #121 Wyoming | 0.1 | ||
Wisconsin (6-2) | 25 | +2 | 12.1 | W 24-13 @ #60 Illinois | 3.1 |
Table notes:
As a basic measure of conference strength, we can average the predictive ratings of every team in a conference. Here’s how the conferences compare after Week 8, along with their recent change compared to last week.
Conference | Avg Rating | Avg Rating Change |
---|---|---|
SEC | 10.8 | -0.1 |
Big 12 | 8.6 | +0.0 |
Pac-12 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
ACC | 6.7 | +0.3 |
Big Ten | 4.5 | +0.2 |
AAC | -2.9 | +0.4 |
MWC | -7.3 | -0.3 |
MAC | -8.1 | -0.1 |
CUSA | -11.6 | -0.8 |
Sun Belt | -13.1 | +0.8 |
You can view our full conference winner odds, updated daily, on our college football projected standings page.
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