October 13, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman
Another exciting week of college football led to more big changes in both our rankings and the AP Poll.
Here’s how things stand entering Week 7.
To review, when we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our college football predictive ratings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games.
Our rankings are driven by margins of victory. Unlike human voters and opinions, they don’t care only about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). More specifically, this means:
In addition, our rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of the preseason rating (which you can find in our 2015 preseason college football rankings post) decays as the season goes on.
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wash State | -1.3 | +4.8 | 72 | 84 | W 45-38 @ #49 Oregon |
Utah State | 3.0 | +4.2 | 58 | 72 | W 56-14 @ #114 Fresno St |
Washington | 10.6 | +4.1 | 29 | 44 | W 17-12 @ #3 USC |
Texas | 3.3 | +3.6 | 55 | 69 | W 24-17 vs. #4 Oklahoma |
S Florida | -5.1 | +3.4 | 83 | 95 | W 45-24 vs. #63 Syracuse |
Arizona | 7.0 | +3.1 | 40 | 55 | W 44-7 vs. #80 Oregon St |
Connecticut | -8.0 | +2.9 | 97 | 101 | W 40-13 @ #103 Central FL |
Baylor | 26.0 | +2.9 | 1 | 2 | W 66-7 @ #117 Kansas |
Minnesota | 1.4 | +2.7 | 62 | 73 | W 41-13 @ #88 Purdue |
Texas Tech | 10.0 | +2.6 | 31 | 35 | W 66-31 vs. #74 Iowa State |
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Texas | -30.6 | -6.5 | 128 | 127 | L 66-7 vs. Portland State |
Central FL | -14.7 | -3.7 | 109 | 103 | L 40-13 vs. Connecticut |
Iowa State | -5.4 | -3.2 | 84 | 74 | L 66-31 @ #35 Texas Tech |
Oklahoma | 16.3 | -3.1 | 14 | 4 | L 24-17 @ #69 Texas |
Syracuse | -2.2 | -3.0 | 76 | 63 | L 38-0 @ #12 Michigan |
Fresno St | -19.0 | -3.0 | 116 | 114 | L 56-14 vs. #72 Utah St |
Middle Tenn | 1.4 | -2.9 | 61 | 54 | L 58-28 @ #37 W Kentucky |
USC | 19.7 | -2.8 | 4 | 3 | L 17-12 vs. #44 Washington |
S Mississippi | -6.6 | -2.8 | 87 | 77 | L 31-10 @ #71 Marshall |
Oregon St | -7.0 | -2.8 | 89 | 80 | L 44-7 @ #55 Arizona |
While the teams in the TR Top 25 only repositioned themselves, the human voters added two teams to the AP Poll (Houston and Duke). Other notable changes:
The Complete TR Top 25 (as of Mon 10/12)
Team | Rank | AP Rank | TR Change | AP Change | Rating | Resuilt | SOS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor (5-0) | 1 | 2 | +1 | +1 | 26.0 | W 66-7 @ #117 Kansas | 0.7 |
Alabama (5-1) | 2 | 10 | -1 | -2 | 24.3 | W 27-14 vs. #27 Arkansas | 10.3 |
TX Christian (6-0) | 3 | 3 | +2 | -1 | 20.4 | W 52-45 @ #29 Kansas St | 5.8 |
USC (3-2) | 4 | -1 | 19.7 | L 17-12 vs. #44 Washington | 6.3 | ||
Michigan (5-1) | 5 | 12 | +7 | +6 | 19.2 | W 38-0 vs. #31 Northwestern | 5.1 |
Mississippi (5-1) | 6 | 13 | +2 | +1 | 18.2 | W 52-3 vs. #125 N Mex State | 8.7 |
Clemson (5-0) | 7 | 5 | +7 | +1 | 18.0 | W 43-24 vs. #19 GA Tech | 7.1 |
Boise State (5-1) | 8 | 21 | +7 | +4 | 17.9 | W 41-10 @ #83 Colorado State | 1.9 |
Notre Dame (5-1) | 9 | 14 | +2 | +1 | 17.7 | W 41-21 vs. #41 Navy | 6.5 |
Stanford (4-1) | 10 | 15 | -4 | +1 | 17.6 | DNP | 7.9 |
Ohio State (6-0) | 11 | 1 | -4 | 17.4 | W 49-28 vs. #97 Maryland | -0.1 | |
Texas A&M (5-0) | 12 | 9 | -3 | 17.2 | DNP | 4.4 | |
Utah (5-0) | 13 | 4 | -3 | +1 | 16.7 | W 30-24 vs. #32 California | 6.0 |
Oklahoma (4-1) | 14 | 19 | -10 | -9 | 16.3 | L 24-17 @ #69 Texas | 5.8 |
Florida (6-0) | 15 | 8 | +3 | +3 | 15.8 | W 21-3 @ #53 Missouri | 5.6 |
LSU (5-0) | 16 | 6 | +1 | +1 | 15.3 | W 45-24 vs. #61 S Carolina | 4.0 |
Georgia (4-2) | 17 | -4 | 14.9 | L 38-31 @ #22 Tennessee | 6.7 | ||
UCLA (4-1) | 18 | 18 | +3 | +2 | 14.2 | DNP | 2.8 |
Tennessee (3-3) | 19 | +3 | 13.6 | W 38-31 vs. #13 Georgia | 8.1 | ||
Florida St (5-0) | 20 | 11 | +1 | 13.5 | W 29-24 vs. #36 Miami (FL) | -0.5 | |
Oklahoma St (6-0) | 21 | 16 | +4 | +5 | 13.5 | W 33-26 @ #16 W Virginia | 3.6 |
W Virginia (3-2) | 22 | -6 | 13.3 | L 33-26 vs. #25 Oklahoma St | 4.3 | ||
GA Tech (2-4) | 23 | -4 | 13.1 | L 43-24 @ #14 Clemson | 9.4 | ||
Miss State (4-2) | 24 | -1 | 12.0 | W 45-17 vs. #116 Troy | 5.0 | ||
Wisconsin (4-2) | 25 | -1 | 11.8 | W 23-21 @ #38 Nebraska | 3.3 |
As a basic measure of conference strength, we can average the predictive ratings of every team in a conference. Here’s how the conferences compare after Week 6, along with their recent change compared to last week.
Conference | Avg Rating | Avg Rating Change |
---|---|---|
SEC | +10.9 | -0.3 |
Big 12 | +8.6 | +0.2 |
Pac-12 | +7.9 | +0.4 |
ACC | +6.4 | -0.1 |
Big Ten | +4.3 | -0.1 |
AAC | -3.2 | +0.2 |
MWC | -7.0 | +0.2 |
MAC | -7.9 | -0.0 |
CUSA | -10.8 | -0.6 |
Sun Belt | -13.9 | -0.3 |
The changes this week were small, with Conference USA showing the largest movement. The Big 12 has started to close the gap on the SEC, with a difference that was more than four points only three weeks ago.
The teams with the best odds to win their conference right now include Florida (SEC), Baylor (Big 12), Stanford (Pac-12), Clemson (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Temple (AAC), Boise State (MWC), Toledo (MAC), Western Kentucky (CUSA), and Appalachian State (Sun Belt).
There were changes to the favorites in the SEC and Big Ten. You can view our full conference winner odds, updated daily, on our college football projected standings page.
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