October 6, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman
It was a crazy college football weekend with some big upsets and close calls, and our rankings (and the human polls) have seen some big changes as a result.
Here’s how things stand entering Week 6.
To review, when we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our college football predictive ratings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games.
Our rankings are driven by margins of victory. Unlike human voters and opinions, they don’t care only about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). More specifically, this means:
In addition, our rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of the preseason rating (which you can find in our 2015 preseason college football rankings post) decays as the season goes on.
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida | 14.7 | +4.5 | 18 | 29 | W 38-10 vs. #2 Miss |
W Kentucky | 7.3 | +4.4 | 37 | 60 | W 49-10 @ #91 Rice |
Arizona St | 6.4 | +4.4 | 45 | 64 | W 38-23 @ #8 UCLA |
E Michigan | -20 | +3.5 | 119 | 125 | L 44-22 @ #7 LSU |
Boise State | 15.8 | +3.4 | 15 | 24 | W 55-0 vs. #99 Hawaii |
Navy | 6.8 | +3.3 | 41 | 55 | W 33-11 vs. #57 Air Force |
E Carolina | -0.2 | +3.3 | 68 | 75 | W 49-23 @ #107 S Methodist |
Stanford | 18.7 | +3.3 | 6 | 18 | W 55-17 vs. #38 Arizona |
Army | -12.3 | +3.1 | 106 | 113 | L 20-14 @ #48 Penn State |
Wash State | -6.1 | +2.9 | 84 | 102 | L 34-28 @ #26 California |
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Results |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawaii | -13.1 | -4.9 | 107 | 98 | L 55-0 @ #24 Boise State |
UCLA | 13.4 | -4.6 | 21 | 8 | L 38-23 vs. #64 Arizona St |
Rice | -12.0 | -4.6 | 105 | 91 | L 49-10 vs. #60 W Kentucky |
Texas | -0.3 | -4.4 | 69 | 50 | L 50-7 @ #11 TX Christian |
Mississippi | 18.3 | -4.3 | 8 | 2 | L 38-10 vs. #29 Florida |
Georgia | 16.2 | -4.0 | 13 | 6 | L 38-10 vs. #1 Alabama |
Arizona | 3.9 | -3.9 | 55 | 38 | L 55-17 @ #18 Stanford |
LSU | 14.8 | -3.3 | 17 | 7 | W 44-22 vs. #125 E Michigan |
North Texas | -24.1 | -2.9 | 127 | 120 | L 49-14 @ #81 S Mississippi |
Miami (FL) | 7.4 | -2.9 | 36 | 27 | L 34-23 @ #71 Cincinnati |
There are big changes in both the TR Top 25 and AP Poll, though not necessarily involving the same teams:
The Complete TR Top 25 (as of Mon 10/5)
Team | Rank | AP Rank | TR Change | AP Change | Rating | Result | SOS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama (4-1) | 1 | 8 | +5 | 25.6 | W 38-10 @ #6 Georgia | 11.7 | |
Baylor (4-0) | 2 | 3 | +1 | +2 | 23.1 | W 63-35 vs. #30 Texas Tech | -1.0 |
USC (3-1) | 3 | 17 | +2 | 22.5 | W 42-14 @ #64 Arizona St | 7.0 | |
Oklahoma (4-0) | 4 | 10 | +5 | +5 | 19.4 | W 44-24 vs. #12 W Virginia | 7.5 |
TX Christian (5-0) | 5 | 2 | +6 | +2 | 19.2 | W 50-7 vs. #50 Texas | 1.0 |
Stanford (4-1) | 6 | 16 | +12 | +2 | 18.7 | W 55-17 vs. #64 Arizona St | 1.3 |
Ohio State (5-0) | 7 | 1 | -3 | 18.7 | W 34-27 @ #72 Indiana | 9.4 | |
Mississippi (4-1) | 8 | 14 | -6 | -11 | 18.3 | L 38-10 @ #29 Florida | 10.6 |
Texas A&M (5-0) | 9 | 9 | +8 | +5 | 17.0 | W 30-17 vs. #21 Miss State | 5.0 |
Utah (4-0) | 10 | 5 | +4 | +5 | 17.0 | DNP | 4.1 |
Notre Dame (4-1) | 11 | 15 | -1 | -9 | 16.7 | L 24-22 @ #15 Clemson | 6.1 |
Michigan (4-1) | 12 | 18 | +4 | +4 | 16.6 | L 28-0 @ #94 Maryland | 4.5 |
Georgia (4-1) | 13 | 19 | -7 | -11 | 16.2 | L 38-10 vs. #1 Alabama | 5.3 |
Clemson (4-0) | 14 | 6 | +1 | +6 | 15.9 | W 24-22 vs. #10 Notre Dame | 5.4 |
Boise State (4-1) | 15 | 25 | +9 | 15.8 | W 55-10 vs. #98 Hawaii | 0.6 | |
W Virginia (3-1) | 16 | NR | -4 | 15.2 | L 44-24 @ #9 Oklahoma | 4.5 | |
LSU (4-0) | 17 | 7 | -10 | +2 | 14.8 | W 44-22 vs. #125 E Michigan | 5.1 |
Florida (5-0) | 18 | 11 | +11 | +14 | 14.7 | W 38-10 vs. #2 Mississippi | 5.0 |
GA Tech (2-3) | 19 | NR | -6 | 14.6 | L 38-31 vs. #35 N Carolina | 7.1 | |
Florida St (4-0) | 20 | 12 | -1 | -1 | 14.1 | W 24-16 @ #87 Wake Forest | -1.8 |
UCLA (4-1) | 21 | 20 | -13 | -13 | 13.4 | L 38-23 vs. #64 Arizona St | 1.5 |
Tennessee (2-3) | 22 | NR | 12.9 | L 24-20 vs. #34 Arkansas | 7.4 | ||
Miss State (3-2) | 23 | NR | -2 | 12.8 | L 30-17 @ #17 Texas A&M | 7.5 | |
Wisconsin (3-2) | 24 | NR | -4 | 12.3 | L 10-6 vs. #43 Iowa | 2.5 | |
Oklahoma St (5-0) | 25 | 21 | -1 | 11.3 | W 36-34 vs. #33 Kansas St | -1.6 |
As a basic measure of conference strength, we can average the predictive ratings of every team in a conference. Here’s how the conferences compare after Week 5, along with their recent change compared to last week.
Conference | Avg Rating | Avg Rating Change |
---|---|---|
SEC | 11.2 | -0.6 |
Big 12 | 8.4 | -0.1 |
Pac-12 | 7.5 | +0.1 |
ACC | 6.5 | +0.0 |
Big Ten | 4.4 | -0.2 |
AAC | -3.4 | +0.9 |
MWC | -7.2 | -0.4 |
MAC | -7.9 | +0.4 |
CUSA | -10.2 | -0.4 |
Sun Belt | -13.6 | -0.5 |
The conference changes this week are relatively minor, with the SEC and AAC seeing the most significant changes.
The teams with the best odds to win their conference right now include Alabama (SEC), Baylor (Big 12), Stanford (Pac-12), Clemson (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Temple (AAC), Boise State (MWC), Toledo (MAC), Western Kentucky (CUSA), and Appalachian State (Sun Belt).
There were changes to the favorites in the SEC, Pac-12, and Conference USA. You can view the full conference winner odds, updated daily, on our college football projected standings page.
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