College Football Rankings Update and Analysis: Week 4

September 25, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman

Heading into our fourth weekend of 2015 college football, here’s how things generally stand in our rankings.

Quick Rankings Primer

First, to clarify, when we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our college football predictive ratings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games. They are driven by margins of victory, and unlike human voters, they don’t care about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). Which means:

A team expected to lose a game can move up our rankings if they lose by less than expected
A team expected to win can move down our rankings if they win by less than expected
A team with several losses in a very tough conference can still be ranked among the top teams in the country

In addition, our latest rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of the preseason rating (which you can find in our 2015 preseason college football rankings post) decays as the season goes on.

General Highlights Entering Week 4

Following the huge Ole Miss win over Alabama on Saturday, the SEC West foes now sit 1-2 in our rankings. While Ole Miss skyrocketed in the polls after the victory, they were already sitting at No. 3 in our rankings last week. Losing in a relatively close game to a nearly evenly matched team only dropped Alabama one spot in our rankings.
There are some significant discrepancies in our rankings vs. the AP Poll (see below), and the most controversial might be Michigan State. The Spartans sit at No. 19 in the TR rankings, compared to No. 2 in the AP Poll. The national media is fond of their undefeated record and win over Oregon, but we don’t consider those wins as quite as impressive; the Spartans have fallen short of margin of victory expectations in all three of their games so far.
This week’s slate of games is far less intriguing on paper. There’s only one matchup of TR Top 25 teams, with UCLA facing Arizona in Tucson.

Biggest Gainers Last Week

Team	Rating	Change	New Rank	Old Rank	Result
Middle Tenn	6.4	+5.8	40	65	W 73-14 vs. #113 Charlotte
Oklahoma St	12.0	+5.5	23	41	W 69-14 vs. #109 TX-San Ant
Connecticut	-13.8	+4.9	110	118	L 9-6 @ #36 Missouri
S Alabama	-15.7	+4.6	113	123	W 34-27 @ #75 San Diego St
N Carolina	10.4	+4.6	30	42	W 48-14 vs. #44 Illinois
N Illinois	1.0	+4.4	62	74	L 20-13 @ #2 Ohio State
Stanford	15.3	+3.9	14	23	W 41-31 @ #4 USC
U Mass	-14.9	+3.9	112	119	L 25-23 vs. #23 Temple
Buffalo	-5.7	+3.6	84	101	W 33-15 @ #103 Fla Atlantic
Northwestern	8.4	+3.5	36	48	W 19-10 @ #32 Duke

The biggest gainer, Middle Tennessee, is now 2-1, with their only loss vs. Alabama. They’ve scored at least 70 points in both of their wins. They’re a 6.5 point underdog at Illinois this week, which will be an interesting matchup for them vs. a Big Ten team.
Oklahoma State, Stanford, and Northwestern are in the AP Top 25 now, and also on our biggest gainers list. Oklahoma State still hasn’t been tested by a top opponent, with three non-conference games thus far, but they’ve exceeded margin of victory expectations.
Northern Illinois gets a nice boost after challenging Ohio State on Saturday. They face another power conference foe in Boston College on Saturday.

Biggest Losers Last Week

Team	Rating	Change	New Rank	Old Rank	Result
Charlotte	-22.9	-6.1	126	113	L 73-14 @ #65 Middle Tenn
Minnesota	2.1	-4.8	58	40	W 10-7 vs. #112 Kent State
San Diego St	-7.9	-4.5	94	75	L 34-27 vs. #123 S Alabama
Illinois	1.4	-4.3	60	44	L 48-14 @ # 42 N Carolina
TX-San Ant	-18.2	-4.2	118	109	L 69-14 vs. #41 Oklahoma St
Virginia	-2.8	-4.0	72	62	W 35-29 vs. William & Mary
TX Christian	18.1	-3.9	10	5	W 56-37 vs. #106 SMU
USC	19.6	-3.5	6	4	L 41-31 vs. #23 Stanford
Missouri	4.5	-3.5	48	36	W 9-6 vs. #118 Connecticut
Central FL	-8.6	-3.5	97	84	L 16-15 vs. Furman

Despite a 2-1 record, Charlotte sits near the bottom of our predictive ratings after getting absolutely pummeled by Middle Tennessee and barely beating a very bad Georgia State team.
Even though Minnesota gave TCU a tough game in Week 1 and has won their two most recent games, they had serious trouble against Kent State on Saturday, winning only 10-7 at home (the point spread was 24). Their rating is still positive, meaning they’re an above-average team, but the Golden Gophers plunged as a result of that game.
TCU, USC, and Missouri are in the AP Top 25, but they took big hits in our rankings. TCU only beat SMU by 19 (for reference, the Vegas spread expected 37), and Minnesota’s bad game further hurt TCU’s rating, since TCU didn’t beat the Gophers by much in its season opener.
USC suffered an unexpected loss to Stanford, and the Missouri offense was almost non-existent in a 9-6 home win vs. UConn. Mizzou was favored by 21 in Vegas.

The TR Top 25: Week 4 Edition

New Teams: #22 BYU (+4 from #26 last week), #23 Oklahoma State (+18 from #41), #24 Virginia Tech (+9 from #32), #25 Arizona (+9 from #34)
Teams Dropping Out: #26 California (-5 from #21), #28 Miami FL (-6 from #22), #29 Oregon (-5 from #24), #38 Arkansas (-13 from #25)
Teams We Like Better than the AP: Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Georgia Tech, USC, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Stanford, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Miss State, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech
Teams The AP Likes Better Than We Do: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Baylor, TCU, Florida State, UCLA, Clemson, Michigan State, Arizona

The SEC is well represented in the teams we like better than AP. As mentioned in our preseason rankings post, humans are less likely than computers to believe that a really tough conference can have lots of teams, including teams with one or multiple losses, that are still Top 25 worthy.

There are also several teams that lost this past Saturday, such as Alabama, Georgia Tech, and USC, on the list of teams we like better than the AP. Human voters are more apt to react negatively to a loss — even if it was against a very strong team, or by less than expected — than objective ratings are.

The Complete TR Top 25 (as of Tue 9/22)

“Predictive” refers to the team’s predictive rating, which indicates points better than an average team on a neutral field
“SOS” refers to the team’s strength of schedule rating for games played so far this season

Team	TR Rank	AP Rank	TR Change	AP Change	Predictive	Result	SOS
Mississippi (3-0)	1	3	+2	+12	25.4	W 43-37 @. #1 Alabama	11.4
Alabama (2-1)	2	12	-1	-10	24.8	L 43-37 vs. #3 Mississippi	13.7
Ohio State (3-0)	3	1	-1		22.4	W 20-13 vs. #74 N Illinois	4.2
Georgia (3-0)	4	7	+3		21.9	W 52-20 vs. #46 S Carolina	9.3
GA Tech (2-1)	5	20	+1	-6	20.3	L 30-22 @ #8 Notre Dame	10.5
USC (2-1)	6	19	-2	-13	19.6	L 41-31 vs. #23 Stanford	9.2
Notre Dame (3-0)	7	6	+1	+2	19.1	W 30-22 vs. #6 GA Tech	8.5
LSU (2-0)	8	8	+5	+5	18.9	W 45-21 vs. #37 Auburn	11.2
Baylor (2-0)	9	5	+1		18.3	DNP	7.2
TX Christian (3-0)	10	3	-5		18.1	W 56-37 vs. #106 S Methodist	8.1
Oklahoma (3-0)	11	15	-2	+1	16.8	W 52-38 vs. #77 Tulsa	8.6
Florida St (3-0)	12	10	+3	-1	15.9	W 14-0 @ #47 Boston Col	5.7
Texas A&M (3-0)	13	14	-2	+3	15.6	W 44-27 vs. #104 Nevada	8.5
Stanford (2-1)	14	21	+9		15.3	W 41-31 @ #4 USC	7.6
Wisconsin (2-1)	15	22	-3	+2	15.2	W 28-3 vs. #114 Troy	3.3
UCLA (3-0)	16	9	-2	+1	14.5	W 24-23 vs. #26 BYU	6.9
Clemson (3-0)	17	11	-1		14.4	W 20-17 @ #56 Louisville	6.8
W Virginia (2-0)	18	NR	-1		14.1	DNP	6.8
Michigan St (3-0)	19	2	0	+2	13.7	W 35-21 vs. #53 Air Force	4.2
Miss State (2-1)	20	NR	0		13.7	W 62-13 vs. Northwestern St	8.7
Tennessee (2-1)	21	NR	-3		13.4	W 55-10 vs. W Carolina	7.1
BYU (2-1)	22	22	+4	-3	12.0	L 24-23 @ #14 UCLA	2.5
Oklahoma St (3-0)	23	24	+18	+1	12.0	W 69-14 vs. #109 TX-San Ant	6.0
VA Tech (2-1)	24	NR	+9		11.6	W 51-24 @ #83 Purdue	5.8
Arizona (3-0)	25	16	+9	+4	11.0	W 77-13 vs. N Arizona	4.6

Week 4 Conference Strength Rankings

As a basic measure of conference strength, we can average the predictive ratings of every team in a conference. Here’s how the conferences compare after Week 3.

Conference	Avg. Rating
SEC	12.1
Big 12	7.8
Pac-12	7.2
ACC	6.8
Big Ten	4.7
AAC	-4.7
Mountain West	-7.7
MAC	-8.8
CUSA	-8.9
Sun Belt	-12.3

The SEC remains the clear leader. With their win over Alabama on Saturday, Ole Miss is now the front runner to win the conference (42% odds), while Georgia has the second highest probability (30%).

Other teams with the highest odds to win their conference right now are Baylor (Big 12), Stanford (Pac-12), Georgia Tech (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Temple (AAC), Boise State (Mountain West), Toledo (MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt).

Some of those races are really close, though. You can see all the latest conference winner odds, updated daily, on our college football projected standings page.