Introducing Our 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions, Odds and Tools

Last night we posted our 2015 NBA playoffs projections on the site.

As we did for the NCAA tournament, we’ve combined our raw models and ratings with data from other sources (e.g. NBA futures odds from the betting markets, which better reflect the impact of dynamics like teams resting players toward the end of the season), in order to craft a more accurate set of projections.

Along with those projections, we also released a suite of data, charts, and tools. Here’s what you’ll find in our newly updated NBA playoffs section:

NBA Playoffs Matchup Predictor

This is our most powerful playoff tool. Pick any two playoff teams, and see all of the following for a hypothetical matchup:

  • Projected series win odds
  • A series length projection chart
  • Player vs. team matchup stats
  • Team head-to-head performance
  • Records from past NBA Playoffs series between similar seeds
  • Full season stats and ratings for both teams

Here’s a sample Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Playoff matchup preview:

2015 TeamRankings NBA Playoff Series Matchup Predictor sample

NBA Playoff Series Win Odds (Updated Daily)

This table shows the latest series win odds for the current round. It will be updated every night with results from each day’s games.

2015 TeamRankings NBA Playoffs Series Odds table sample

NBA Series Length Projections

These charts show the chance of every current series being won by each team in a specific number of games (for example, the chance the Spurs beat the Clippers in exactly 6 games is 23.4%). The data for these charts is frozen prior to each round, so you can come back and see how our projections did.

2015 TeamRankings NBA Playoffs Series Length Projection sample

NBA Playoffs Round By Round Survival Odds

This table shows the probability of every team advancing to every round. It will be updated prior to each round (not after every game).

Right now our projected odds show the Cavs and Warriors essentially tied as co-favorites:

2015 TeamRankings NBA Playoffs Round By Round Advancement Odds table sample

Playoff Team Projected Matchup Pages

Each playoff team has a page showing series win odds and series length projections for every potential playoff matchup.

2015 TeamRankings NBA Playoffs Team Projection sample

 

We hope you find these tools and data informative. Enjoy.