Rising Arizona: How Tournament Survival Odds Have Changed

Here at TeamRankings, we like to say that every tournament is unique — kind of like a snowflake, many of which happened to be falling on my New Jersey office during last Friday’s games. (If you live in the area, hopefully you avoided a rough commute and took the day off to watch the games.)

Similarly, the path of teams through the NCAA tournament can get rougher, or easier, based on events outside of their control. Here’s a look at how various teams’ chances have evolved over the course of the tournament so far.

2015 NCAA Champion Odds

The chart below charts the odds of each Sweet 16 team to win the 2015 NCAA championship, and how those odds have changed from round to round:

Championship Odds Over Time

Two things jump out from this chart:

  • Kentucky is still the overwhelming favorite to win it all. That’s not exactly news, but all the whitespace between Kentucky’s line and the rest of the field is striking.
  • Despite winning two games, Kentucky’s odds to win it all haven’t materially changed, primarily because they were already projected as overwhelming favorites in the Rounds of 64 and 32. Kentucky still has just over a 40% chance to finish as undefeated National Champions.

We can also see that Arizona remains the second most likely team to win the tournament at 16.2%, by a sizable margin over Duke at 11.5%.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats of Arizona, they would have to face the Wildcats of Kentucky in the Final Four rather than the championship game. Currently there’s a 41% chance that Arizona and Kentucky match up during the tournament’s final weekend, and a 58% chance that a team named “Wildcats” will be the national champion this year.

Other observations:

  • Arizona, Duke, Gonzaga, and Michigan State have all seen their odds increase a fair amount relative to their expectations at the start of the tournament.
  • Wisconsin’s odds to win it all have barely budged since the start of the tournament. They still have about a 1 in 12 chance to be NCAA champions.
  • Benefiting from the upsets in the bottom half of the South region, Gonzaga, which faces #11 UCLA in the Sweet 16, has passed Wisconsin to have the fourth best odds to win the championship. The Zags also have the third best odds of all remaining teams to make the Elite 8.

Odds To Make The Final Four

Of course, the tournament is not just about winning it all. The chart below portrays changes in each team’s odds of reaching the Final Four, so it effectively decompresses the chart above. As a result, we can better see how the teams with less realistic hopes of winning it all are faring:

 

Odds to Make Final Four

From reviewing the graphs, we notice the following:

  • Although Kentucky’s chances look pretty stable, Arizona’s odds to progress have increased substantially, thanks to a Baylor loss and a win over a strong Ohio State team.
  • Again, Wisconsin’s advancement odds have changed little from the start of the tournament. Even though they are now #4 in our predictive rankings, Wisconsin would have to face Arizona, who is ranked #2, for a Final Four berth. Therefore, the Badgers have just the 6th best odds to make it there.
  • It is now more likely than not that Wisconsin and Arizona will face off in the Elite 8.
  • Michigan State has increased its Final Four odds more dramatically than any other team, thanks in part to the upset of 1 seed Villanova in their region. As a result, the 7 seed Spartans are actually now the slight favorite to emerge from the East.
  • Oklahoma, Louisville, and NC State are also the beneficiaries of Villanova’s early exit. Each team has seen their Final Four odds more than double; NC State’s have increased from 2.1% to 15.8% according to our models.
  • Wichita State’s chances of reaching the Final Four increased a fair bit with their upset of Kansas, but with Kentucky in their region the impact was limited. Wichita’s chances of emerging from the Midwest have increased from 3.4% to 9.8%.
  • However, Wichita State’s chances of making the Elite 8 are now 50.8%, meaning there is a 47% chance of a Kentucky-Wichita State rematch from last year’s tournament.

Squandered Chances

For many of us, the early upsets are just as much a part of the tournament experience, if not more so. Helped by the highlight packages CBS shows every year, a lot of people probably remember Bryce Drew and Valparaiso beating Ole Miss in 1998, or Hampton upsetting Iowa State in 2001 — but forget the teams that actually won the tournament in those years. (Answers below.)

To help understand the magnitude of the upsets so far, we can look at some of the top tier teams that did not make the Sweet 16 this year, and their odds to make the Final Four as of the start of the 2015 tournament.

Odds to Make Final Four Disappointments

Observations:

  • 1 seed Villanova had the fourth best chance to make the Final Four at the start of the tournament, and our models gave them an 82% chance to beat NC State on Saturday. Nova brought it back to a one point deficit with one second to go, but they couldn’t fully overcome a 12 point deficit with 13 minutes remaining in the second half.
  • While Villanova lost in the Round of 32, the most stunning upset of the tournament so far has been 3 seed Iowa State’s loss to UAB in the Round of 64. We gave Iowa State a 92% chance to win that game.
  • 3 seed Baylor’s loss to Georgia State was also a huge upset. While their odds of making the Final Four were not great, Baylor had a 79% chance to win their first game.
  • Despite being a 2 seed, Kansas never had a great opportunity to make the Final Four. In fact, Wichita State even ended up being the favorite against Kansas at some sports books. Even if they had won, Kansas were still on a path to face Kentucky in the Elite 8, and their odds to make the Final Four were never over 8%.

What’s Next?

There are some great matchups in store during the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, including a potential West Regional final pitting Arizona against Wisconsin.

If 1 seed Duke and 2 seed Gonzaga face off, that game could also become an instant classic, and a Kentucky-Wichita State rematch would also be a great storyline (even if Kentucky would be an 85% favorite to win).

In the Sweet 16, Duke-Utah has the chance to be compelling as it is the most likely upset of the remaining 1 and 2 seeds, and also features five likely future NBA players including potential #1 pick Jahlil Okafor.

History Lesson Answers

  • In 1998, Tubby Smith led a Kentucky team headlined by Jamaal Magloire, Nazr Mohammed, Scott Padgett, his son Saul Smith, and current Manhattan coach Steve Masiello over Andrew Miller, Micheal Doleac, and the Utah Utes coached by Rick Majerus.
  • In 2001, Coach K won his third championship with a stacked Duke team including Shane Battier, Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy Jr, and Chris Duhon. They beat Lute Olson and the Arizona Wildcats in the championship to deny Gilbert Arenas, Richard Jefferson, Luke Walton and Loren Woods the chance to cut down the nets.