NFL Week 14 Predictions, Rankings, and Tips: The Weekly Rundown

Back from a the Thanksgiving week hiatus, here’s a quick-hit list of weekly highlights from the vast array of NFL content we publish on TeamRankings. We’ll also share some predictions and picks for Week 14 and beyond.


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NFL Week 14 Power Rankings Update

Current NFL rankings

  • Pats still #1, Denver close. New England’s 5-point road loss to Green Bay only had a minor impact on the Patriots’ NFL-leading Predictive rating, and New England remains our #1 team, although now only by a hair over #2 Denver.
  • Chiefs slide extends. Denver’s better than expected result against Kansas City provided some more supporting evidence for #12 KC’s only modestly above-average rating by our system, after a preceding loss to awful Oakland. The Chiefs got as high as #9 in our rankings two weeks ago (still not close to elite), but alas, it was fleeting.

  • Seattle and Green Bay next best. #3 Seattle and #4 Green Bay now make up a clearly defined second-tier in our ratings, with both teams a little more than a point worse than New England and Denver on a neutral field.
  • Then a dropoff. After the top four teams, there’s a decent drop in ratings value until you hit #5 Indianapolis (0-2 against teams currently ranked in the top 5), #6 Baltimore (1-4 against teams currently ranked in the top 16), and #7 Philadelphia (9-3, but against the #20 ranked schedule strength in the league).
  • A 52 point win, even against Oakland, means something. The biggest gainer in this week’s rankings was #20 St. Louis, surging five spots and improving its rating by 1.8 points after a dropping a 52-0 nuclear bomb on Oakland. After being the butt of many early-season jokes, the Rams are now only about a point away from being a league-average team in our ratings.
  • Cowboys take a hit, future not looking brighter. After a 33-10 home loss to Philly, the Cowboys fell to #19 in our rankings, despite their 8-4 record. Dallas’s win-loss record has been compiled against one of the easiest schedules in the league (#29 SOS ranking), and its SOS in future games is looking much harder (#10 in the league). Our ratings have remained pessimistic on the Cowboys all year, now we’ll see what happens in the final stretch.

NFL Week 14 Season Projections Update

Current NFL season projections

  • 3 clear top dogs for 2015 Super Bowl Champion. According to our latest simulations, New England (23%), Denver (20%), and Green Bay (17%) form a clear leading triumvirate in terms of Super Bowl win odds.
  • Why is Seattle not included? Because Seattle only projects as 48% likely to win the NFC West and trails the win-loss records of three current conference leaders by one game, the Seahawks’ Super Bowl win odds are significantly lower (11%) than the current top three, despite having a better Predictive rating than Green Bay. If you end up having to play an extra game in the playoffs (Wild Card) against a good team, it’s never a good thing for your championship odds.
  • 30% chance another team wins it all, though. By our projections, right now there’s about a 7-in-10 chance that either New England, Denver, Green Bay, or Seattle wins the 2015 Super Bowl. That means there’s a 3-in-10 chance another team wins it, with Philadelphia (7%), Arizona (5%), and Indianapolis (4%) being the most likely teams in the field. Keep in mind that we don’t rate Arizona as a great team, but they still have a decent chance to earn a Wild Card bye, and that’s big.
  • AFC division winner projections. Our current projected AFC division winners are New England (in near-lock status at 91% AFC East), Cincinnati (66% AFC North), Indianapolis (near-lock at 93% AFC South), and Denver (near-lock at 96% AFC West, slamming the door shut over the past two weeks after it had opened a crack for Kansas City).
  • NFC division winner projections. Our current projected NFC division winners are Philadelphia (a very strong favorite at 87% NFC East), Green Bay (77% NFC North, with Detroit still somewhat of a threat), New Orleans (62% NFC South, thanks in part to a much better rating than Atlanta and an easier last four games), and a virtual dead heat between Seattle (48% NFC West) an Arizona (47% NFC West).
  • No hope for the playoffs? Our season simulations currently give 12 teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs: newcomer Buffalo, the NY Jets, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, the NY Giants, Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, Carolina (a newcomer since our last post), Tampa Bay, and St. Louis.

NFL Week 14 Pick’em Pools Update

Week 14 NFL pick’em pool picks

  • Past advice. Two weeks ago we advised picking unpopular Houston, a Vegas favorite, over Cincinnati, but the underdog Bengals pulled off the victory. Picking the NY Giants over Dallas as an upset play looked risky, but a decent proposition from a value standpoint, so it was a good pick for bigger pools with weekly prizes. The G-Men also lost but almost pulled it off, losing by three.
  • End game pick’em strategy. We’re officially into what we consider the “end game” for pick’em pools: the last five weeks of the season. That means if you really want to maximize your odds to win your pool, your picks from now on should be determined by factors like your current standing in the pool. For example, if you’re sitting significantly “out of the money” right now in the standings, picking all favorites to win is probably a bad strategy for you. With time running out, your best chance to catch up to the leaders is to make riskier picks, and hope you get them right while the majority of your pool’s leaders don’t.
  • This week’s pick advice. In Week 14, Tennessee vs. the NY Giants is a virtual coin flip right now, so if you’re behind in the standings pick the less popular team, Tennessee. If you’re ahead, pick the team that you think most of your highest-ranked opponents will also pick. (That’s a defensive strategy, since anyone who picks the same winner as you has no chance of cutting into your lead.)
  • Strategy for weekly prize pools. Pools that only offer weekly prizes call for a different strategy, one that needs to give much more weight to how your opponents are likely to pick this week. It’s risky, but this week Washington over St. Louis looks like a solid pick from a risk/reward standpoint. The Redskins have over 40% win odds, but are only 16% picked.
  • Strategy for YOUR pool. Just remember, the optimal strategy for your specific pool, including how many favorites vs. upsets you should pick this week, depends on a lot of factors: the number of entries in your pool, the rules, the scoring system, the payout structure. That’s why we developed our Football Pick’em Pools product to apply our analytics to your specific pool.

NFL Week 14 Survivor Pools Update

Week 14 NFL survivor pool picks

  • Not many eliminations this past week. The four most popular teams all won last week, with the biggest upset of the week (in terms of public pick rate) being the Jaguars knocking off the Giants, who were picked by roughly 8% nationally. Throw in a handful of losses by 1%-pick-rate teams, and you end up with about 13% of the public being eliminated in Week 13.
  • Detroit ends up as our top rated pick. Overall, Detroit ended up as our top rated Survivor pick for Week 13 in our Survivor Report Card. If your goal is to maximize your odds to win your pool, the Lions offered the best mix of win odds, popularity, and future value. The Lions beat the Bears on Thanksgiving day.
  • Don’t pick this team in Week 14. Detroit and San Francisco both deserve consideration this week, but there are better picks out there, so we would advise avoiding those two teams if you have our higher-rated teams still available.

NFL Week 14 Game Predictions & Betting Picks Update

Week 14 NFL game winner picks | Spread picks | Most likely upsets

  • We tied the public in Week 13, but lost in Week 12. Both our closing game winner picks and the public (i.e. the user consensus picks from ESPN’s pick’em game) went 11-5 last week. In Week 12, the public went 12-3 to our 10-5.
  • Game winner picks behind the public on the season. As of now our game winner picks are 125-66-1 on the season, which lags the ESPN user consensus by six wins. That’s an unusual result this late in the season, as usually our picks beat the public. Overall, it’s been a weird year in the NFL in terms of the public nailing upset picks in close games, often by fading the Vegas favorite — that’s not what happens in most years.
  • Overall positive week for playable betting picks. Our playable point spread picks against Sunday lines went 3-2 last week, with all spread picks going 9-7. Playable totals picks against Sunday lines went 2-4, while money line value picks went 8-2, including a rare 3-star pick on Atlanta +107 over Arizona. We also had Jacksonville +124, Philadelphia +144, and Seattle +115.
  • Season performance update. That performance means that our playable rated NFL spread picks against Sunday lines are now 53-45 for the season, while playable over/under picks are 40-39. Our highest rated (2- and 3-star) money line picks are -5.4 units for the season based on a flat-betting strategy, while all starred money line picks are currently -13.2 units.
  • Top confidence Week 14 picks. The top confidence game winner picks from our models are currently Green Bay over Atlanta (85%), Detroit over Tampa Bay (82%), and Denver over Buffalo (82%).
  • Most likely Week 11 upsets. The most likely upset of the week according to our models is currently Seattle over Philadelphia (a 1-point favorite at publication time), with a 49% chance of happening. The most likely upset of a Vegas favorite of more than three points is currently Cleveland over Indianapolis, with a 43% chance of happening.

Weekly NFL Contest Update

Enter our Week 14 NFL contest | Current leaderboards

  • ertrt takes the gold in Week 13. User ertrt won our 165-entry NFL contest on FanDuel this past week, with a new season record high score of 209.72! Fine work, ertlt, and that’s good for a TeamRankings Season Pass ($249) in addition to your FanDuel winnings.
  • 61% of entries won cash! Because of our guaranteed prize pool, 100 of the 165 of the entries in our weekly contest doubled their entry fees last week. It included us again, as our teamrankings entry ended up in 47th place.
  • Come play with us! We want you to get in on the Week 14 action with us. Another 100 entries will win cash this week, and this is your chance to beat the TR Nerds head to head. Claim your spot now in our weekly tournament.