NFL Week 12 Predictions, Rankings, and Tips: The Weekly Rundown

Here’s a quick-hit list of weekly highlights from the vast array of NFL content we publish on TeamRankings. We’ll also share some predictions and picks for Week 12 and beyond.


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NFL Week 12 Power Rankings Update

Current NFL rankings

  • What a difference a week makes. Denver’s unexpected 15-point loss to St. Louis coupled with New England’s 22-point win over Indianapolis has altered the balance of power at the top of our Predictive ratings. New England had been gaining in recent weeks, but now it’s a virtual dead heat for the top ranking, with the #1 Broncos leading the #2 Patriots by only 0.2 points.
  • Four teams separated from the pack. After another blowout win, against a good team this time, #3 Green Bay (the top gainer in our ratings in Week 11) is now only a point behind New England, and #4 Seattle is about a point behind the Packers. So we’ve got a clear cluster of four teams at the top of the NFL ratings right now, and it consists of Denver, New England, Green Bay, and Seattle.

  • Then comes the second tier. Behind those four teams is a cluster of 8 strong-but-not-elite teams, all rated within about 1.5 points of one another. In order from highest to lowest rated: San Francisco, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Arizona, Kansas City, New Orleans, Miami, Philadelphia. The Kansas City/Seattle game was projected to be very close, so KC’s 4-point win helped its rating, but not dramatically.
  • And the third. Detroit, Cincinnati, San Diego, Dallas, Houston, and Pittsburgh now all rate as above average, but not great, teams. Cincinnati did make a strong gain in the ratings this week, though, after soundly defeating the Saints on the road.

NFL Week 12 Season Projections Update

Current NFL season projections

  • We have a new top dog! With a better record and a higher chance to win its division, our simulations now give New England the highest Super Bowl win odds, at 22%, followed by Denver at 17% and Green Bay at 15%.
  • Four teams with double-digit odds to win it all. Thanks in part to a great win-loss record, Arizona is the only other team with double-digit odds (10%) to win it all. No other team currently has more than 6% odds to be Super Bowl champs.
  • AFC division winner projections. Our current projected AFC division winners are New England (in near-lock status at 90% AFC East), Cincinnati (34% AFC North, although not really a “favorite” as it’s close to a three-way tie with Baltimore and Pittsburgh), Indianapolis (down slightly to 82% AFC South), and Denver (way down to 65% AFC West, with Kansas City now up to 32%).
  • NFC division winner projections. Our current projected NFC division winners are Philadelphia (down to 64% NFC East), Green Bay (65% NFC North), New Orleans (down to 59% NFC South), and Arizona (up to 74% NFC West).
  • No hope for the playoffs? Our season simulations currently give 11 teams (up from 10 last week) less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs: newcomer Buffalo, the NY Jets, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, the NY Giants, Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis.

NFL Week 12 Pick’em Pools Update

Week 12 NFL pick’em pool picks

  • Last week’s advice. The smart fade-the-public picks we recommended last week were Kansas City over Seattle and Indianapolis over New England, and we split those. We also said that Houston over Cleveland looked like the best of a risky set of value upset picks, and the Texans delivered a win.
  • Strategy for season prize pools. For Week 12, your best strategy in NFL pick’em pools that only have season prizes is to continue to remain conservative and not go crazy picking upsets. (Even if you’re a bit behind in the standings, it’s not time to get more aggressive yet…that starts next week.) There’s not a ton of value in this pick, but it makes sense to pick Houston (currently the Vegas favorite, but not the public favorite) over Cincinnati.
  • Strategy for weekly prize pools. Pools that only offer weekly prizes call for a different strategy, one that needs to give much more weight to how your opponents are likely to pick this week. Houston obviously makes a lot of sense in this case, but it gets risky quickly in terms of upset picks this week. The best of the bunch looks like the Giants over Dallas, but it’s pretty risky (only 37% win odds…but also only 15% picked).
  • Strategy for YOUR pool. Just remember, the optimal strategy for your specific pool, including how many favorites vs. upsets you should pick this week, depends on a lot of factors: the number of entries in your pool, the rules, the scoring system, the payout structure. That’s why we developed our Football Pick’em Pools product to apply our analytics to your specific pool.

NFL Week 12 Survivor Pools Update

Week 12 NFL survivor pool picks

  • Week of destruction. It was upset city in Survivor pools this past week, with 50% of still-surviving entries biting the dust thanks to losses by Washington, Denver, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Carolina.
  • Our top pick got through. Our highest rated Survivor pick last week was San Diego, and we recommended the Chargers in single-pick strategies. Our advice for multi-entry portfolios included layering in some Washington, Denver, or Cleveland picks, though, so we didn’t escape the week completely unscathed.
  • Don’t pick this team in Week 12. San Francisco is a relatively popular pick this week, but in the majority of survivor pools there are several better options. So in general, avoid the Niners this week his week if you want to maximize your odds to win your pool.

NFL Week 12 Game Predictions & Betting Picks Update

Week 12 NFL game winner picks | Spread picks | Most likely upsets

  • We tied the public. Both our closing game winner picks and the public (i.e., the user consensus picks from ESPN’s pick’em game) went 8-6 last week. We liked Kansas City over Seattle and Atlanta over Carolina, which the public got wrong, but we also picked Indianapolis over New England and Detroit over Arizona, which the public got right.
  • Game winner picks still behind the public on the season. As of now our game winner picks are 104-56-1 on the season, which lags the ESPN user consensus by four wins. (Most of that came in Week 1, when the public went a ridiculous +3 on us). Our game winner picks are currently 8-5 against the 13 ESPN NFL experts.
  • Fantastic week for betting picks. Our playable betting picks against Sunday lines had a tremendous Week 11, with playable spread picks going a perfect 5-0 and playable over-under picks going 4-1. Our sole 2-star money line value pick, Oakland +476 (a longshot) didn’t come through, but 1-star picks on Cincinnati +281 and Tampa Bay +285 generated a nicely profitable week based on flat betting all ML value picks.
  • Season performance update. That performance means that our playable rated NFL spread picks against Sunday lines are now 46-39 for the season, while playable over/under picks are 34-33. 2-star money line picks are -6.9 units for the season based on a flat-betting strategy, while all starred money line picks are currently -11.5 units.
  • Top confidence Week 11 picks. The top confidence game winner picks from our models are currently Indianapolis over Jacksonville (85%), Philadelphia over Tennessee (83%), and Seattle over Arizona (78%), which is a bit higher than implied by Vegas lines…but it’s still pretty interesting that 6-4 Seattle is currently favored by 7 in Vegas over a 9-1 team.
  • Most likely Week 11 upsets. The most likely upset of the week according to our models is currently Cincinnati over Houston (a 2-point favorite as of this writing), with a 47% chance of happening. The most likely upset of a Vegas favorite of more than three points is currently the New York Jets over Buffalo, but with a 41% chance of happening.

Weekly NFL Contest Update

Enter our Week 12 NFL contest | Current leaderboards

  • cgoble takes the gold in Week 11. User cgoble won our 186-entry NFL contest on FanDuel this past week, cruising past second place finisher ddonald0318 by more than 10 points with this lineup. Fine work, cgoble, and that’s good for a TeamRankings Season Pass ($249) in addition to your FanDuel winnings.
  • 54% of entries won cash! Because of our guaranteed prize pool, 100 of the 186 of the entries in our weekly contest doubled their entry fees last week. And at last, it included us again, as our teamrankings entry ended up in 32nd place after two weeks out of the money.
  • Come play with us! We want you to get in on the Week 12 action with us. Another 100 entries will win cash this week, and this is your chance to beat the TR Nerds head to head. Claim your spot now in our weekly tournament.