About our NFL Football Picks
Our NFL picks are the result of algorithmic prediction models developed by a sports-loving Stanford mathematician and engineers. We have created several math models that make picks related to NFL betting and pick'em contests, including NFL game winner picks, NFL ATS picks, over/under picks, and money line picks.
Unlike handicappers, our math models predict every single NFL game, and we provide our users with specific quantitative results. Examples include the percentage chance that each team has to win a game, and the exact difference in points between the predicted win margin and the Vegas point spread.
Our math model picks are best used as the basis for a repeatable and effective NFL prediction system. Anyone can get lucky in the short term. Long term picking success requires a lot of smart information analysis and a little subjective handicapping skill, and our math model picks can provide the foundation.
2009 Performance Summary
| Pick Type | Model | 3-star+ | 2-star+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS Picks | Similar Games (Cover Odds) | 1-6-0 (14%) | 16-19-0 (46%) |
| ATS Picks | Power Ratings | 9-8-1 (53%) | 31-23-1 (57%) |
| ATS Picks | Similar Games (MOV Diff) | 1-1-0 (50%) | 13-11-0 (54%) |
| Over/Under Picks | Similar Games | 4-4-0 (50%) | 14-21-0 (40%) |
| Game Winner Picks | Power Ratings | 52-19-0 (73%) | 70-28-0 (71%) |
| Game Winner Picks | Similar Games | 47-15-0 (76%) | 63-23-0 (73%) |
ATS Picks (Against The Spread)View Week 9 ATS Picks
Power Ratings Model ATS Picks
Algorithmic math model that determines NFL ATS picks by comparing power ratings based predictions to point spreads.
- 31-23-1 (57.4%) this season in 2 star or better picks.
- 56-43-1 (56.6%) in last 100 picks.
Similar Games (MOV Diff) Model ATS Picks
Algorithmic math model that determines NFL ATS picks by analyzing margins of victory in statistically similar historical games.
- 13-11-0 (54.2%) this season in 2 star or better picks.
Similar Games (Cover Odds) Model ATS Picks
Algorithmic math model that determines NFL ATS picks by analyzing ATS cover percentages in statistically similar historical games.
- 4-2-0 (66.7%) last week in 2 star or better picks.
- 21-18-1 (53.8%) last 3 weeks.
Over/Under PicksView Week 9 Over/Under Picks
Similar Games Model Over/Under Picks
Algorithmic math model that analyzes over/under outcomes in statistically similar historical games.
- 23-19-2 (54.8%) since 2007 in 3 star or better picks.
Game Winner PicksView Week 9 Game Winner Picks
Power Ratings Model Game Winner Picks
Algorithmic math model that determines NFL win picks using power ratings based predictions.
- 52-19-0 (73.2%) this season in 3 star or better picks.
- 293-117-0 (71.5%) since 2007 in 3 star or better picks.
Similar Games Model Game Winner Picks
Algorithmic math model that determines NFL win picks by analyzing win percentages in statistically similar historical games.
- 47-15-0 (75.8%) this season in 3 star or better picks.
- 183-67-0 (73.2%) in last 250 3 star or better picks.