IMPORTANT: Due to prediction logic refinements we are making, Week 4 NFL predictions are likely to change by mid-week.

NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Over
Opening Line # Games Over Record Over %
Over/Under of 36-40.5 7 2-4-1 33.3%
Over/Under of 41-45.5 13 8-5-0 61.5%
Over/Under of 46-50.5 12 7-5-0 58.3%
Over/Under of 51+ 2 2-0-0 100.0%
Total 34 19-14-1 57.6%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Over
Opening Line # Games Over Record Over %
Over/Under of 0-35.5 5 2-3-0 40.0%
Over/Under of 36-40.5 34 21-13-0 61.8%
Over/Under of 41-45.5 46 24-22-0 52.2%
Over/Under of 46-50.5 21 9-11-1 45.0%
Over/Under of 51+ 9 4-5-0 44.4%
Total 115 60-54-1 52.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Over
Opening Line # Games Over Record Over %
Over/Under of 0-35.5 13 8-5-0 61.5%
Over/Under of 36-40.5 112 56-54-2 50.9%
Over/Under of 41-45.5 225 109-109-7 50.0%
Over/Under of 46-50.5 115 57-57-1 50.0%
Over/Under of 51+ 29 14-15-0 48.3%
Total 494 244-240-10 50.4%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Over Record Over %
Over/Under of 0-35.5 2 2-0-0 100.0%
Over/Under of 36-40.5 68 41-24-3 63.1%
Over/Under of 41-45.5 123 62-55-6 53.0%
Over/Under of 46-50.5 51 25-25-1 50.0%
Over/Under of 51+ 9 7-1-1 87.5%
Total 253 137-105-11 56.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Under
Opening Line # Games Over Record Over %
Over/Under of 0-35.5 12 7-5-0 58.3%
Over/Under of 36-40.5 98 53-43-2 55.2%
Over/Under of 41-45.5 247 125-114-8 52.3%
Over/Under of 46-50.5 130 66-59-5 52.8%
Over/Under of 51+ 40 15-25-0 37.5%
Total 527 266-246-15 52.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Under
Opening Line # Games Over Record Over %
Over/Under of 36-40.5 29 14-13-2 51.9%
Over/Under of 41-45.5 58 27-31-0 46.6%
Over/Under of 46-50.5 47 21-23-3 47.7%
Over/Under of 51+ 17 6-11-0 35.3%
Total 151 68-78-5 46.6%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Under
Opening Line # Games Over Record Over %
Over/Under of 36-40.5 8 1-7-0 12.5%
Over/Under of 41-45.5 39 19-19-1 50.0%
Over/Under of 46-50.5 19 11-7-1 61.1%
Over/Under of 51+ 10 6-4-0 60.0%
Total 76 37-37-2 50.0%

About the Over/Under Movement Data

These tables show the number of games that went over the totals line, based on the difference between the opening and closing totals line, as well has how high that line opened.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the opening totals line, ranging from games with low totals to those with high totals. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that original total, ranging from a large move toward the over to a large move toward the under.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the totals line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the over to large move towards the under. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening totals lines, from games with low totals to those with high totals.

Over Record and Over % refer to the number of games that went over vs. under for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Over %.