NFL Odds Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 1330 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 629-664-37 and covered the spread 48.6% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
-6 1 1-0-0 100.0%
-4 3 2-1-0 66.7%
-3.5 14 6-7-1 46.2%
-3 10 7-3-0 70.0%
-2.5 39 23-15-1 60.5%
-2 69 32-36-1 47.1%
-1.5 71 31-37-3 45.6%
-1 99 56-41-2 57.7%
-0.5 160 83-73-4 53.2%
0 344 157-175-12 47.3%
0.5 169 79-87-3 47.6%
1 90 41-47-2 46.6%
1.5 67 26-41-0 38.8%
2 121 52-63-6 45.2%
2.5 30 12-18-0 40.0%
3 12 5-6-1 45.5%
3.5 8 4-4-0 50.0%
4 15 7-8-0 46.7%
4.5 2 1-1-0 50.0%
5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
5.5 2 2-0-0 100.0%
6.5 1 0-0-1 --
7 1 0-1-0 0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.