NFL Odds Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 1864 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 892-923-49 and covered the spread 49.1% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
-6 3 1-2-0 33.3%
-5.5 2 0-2-0 0.0%
-4 3 2-1-0 66.7%
-3.5 16 6-9-1 40.0%
-3 25 14-11-0 56.0%
-2.5 62 32-29-1 52.5%
-2 101 43-56-2 43.4%
-1.5 107 52-52-3 50.0%
-1 149 79-67-3 54.1%
-0.5 228 115-107-6 51.8%
0 436 209-212-15 49.6%
0.5 231 114-114-3 50.0%
1 128 60-64-4 48.4%
1.5 94 37-56-1 39.8%
2 157 74-76-7 49.3%
2.5 48 20-28-0 41.7%
3 20 7-11-2 38.9%
3.5 20 9-11-0 45.0%
4 19 9-10-0 47.4%
4.5 5 3-2-0 60.0%
5 2 1-1-0 50.0%
5.5 4 4-0-0 100.0%
6.5 2 0-1-1 0.0%
7 1 0-1-0 0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.