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NFL Odds Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 1704 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 817-841-46 and covered the spread 49.3% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
-6 3 1-2-0 33.3%
-5.5 1 0-1-0 0.0%
-4 3 2-1-0 66.7%
-3.5 16 6-9-1 40.0%
-3 18 11-7-0 61.1%
-2.5 50 28-21-1 57.1%
-2 91 39-50-2 43.8%
-1.5 99 48-48-3 50.0%
-1 129 69-57-3 54.8%
-0.5 204 102-97-5 51.3%
0 412 197-201-14 49.5%
0.5 215 106-106-3 50.0%
1 115 54-57-4 48.6%
1.5 85 34-50-1 40.5%
2 154 72-75-7 49.0%
2.5 43 18-25-0 41.9%
3 19 7-11-1 38.9%
3.5 17 7-10-0 41.2%
4 18 8-10-0 44.4%
4.5 4 3-1-0 75.0%
5 2 1-1-0 50.0%
5.5 3 3-0-0 100.0%
6.5 1 0-0-1 --
7 1 0-1-0 0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.