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NFL Odds Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 1630 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 776-810-44 and covered the spread 48.9% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
-6 3 1-2-0 33.3%
-5.5 1 0-1-0 0.0%
-4 3 2-1-0 66.7%
-3.5 16 6-9-1 40.0%
-3 17 11-6-0 64.7%
-2.5 48 27-20-1 57.4%
-2 86 38-46-2 45.2%
-1.5 95 45-47-3 48.9%
-1 125 68-55-2 55.3%
-0.5 195 98-92-5 51.6%
0 394 186-194-14 48.9%
0.5 204 97-104-3 48.3%
1 107 49-54-4 47.6%
1.5 82 32-49-1 39.5%
2 152 71-75-6 48.6%
2.5 40 17-23-0 42.5%
3 18 7-10-1 41.2%
3.5 15 6-9-0 40.0%
4 18 8-10-0 44.4%
4.5 3 2-1-0 66.7%
5 2 1-1-0 50.0%
5.5 3 3-0-0 100.0%
6.5 1 0-0-1 --
7 1 0-1-0 0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.