NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 13 7-6-0 53.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 5 5-0-0 100.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 8 4-3-1 57.1%
Total 27 17-9-1 65.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 35 20-14-1 58.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 33 17-15-1 53.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 27 11-16-0 40.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 10 4-6-0 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3 3-0-0 100.0%
Total 108 55-51-2 51.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 52 20-30-2 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 183 104-76-3 57.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 50 23-25-2 47.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 32 16-16-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Total 323 165-150-8 52.4%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 63 35-27-1 56.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 181 76-96-9 44.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 63 28-33-2 45.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 26 15-11-0 57.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 11 3-8-0 27.3%
Total 344 157-175-12 47.3%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 18 9-8-1 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 158 73-81-4 47.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 77 37-40-0 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 57 23-34-0 40.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 16 4-12-0 25.0%
Total 326 146-175-5 45.5%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 36 14-20-2 41.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 71 29-40-2 42.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 37 18-17-2 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 5 3-2-0 60.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 0-2-0 0.0%
Total 151 64-81-6 44.1%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 13 7-6-0 53.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 15 3-10-2 23.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 10 7-3-0 70.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2 2-0-0 100.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 42 20-20-2 50.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.