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NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 49 27-21-1 56.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 91 39-48-4 44.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 80 45-34-1 57.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 29 14-14-1 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 47 19-25-3 43.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 26 12-14-0 46.2%
Total 324 157-157-10 50.0%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 21 10-11-0 47.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 47 20-26-1 43.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 253 142-107-4 57.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 227 100-116-11 46.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 214 103-106-5 49.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 89 41-46-2 47.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-12-2 33.3%
Total 871 422-424-25 49.9%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 33 16-17-0 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 67 28-37-2 43.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 75 36-37-2 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 100 52-47-1 52.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 48 23-23-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 16 10-6-0 62.5%
Total 347 171-169-7 50.3%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 13 4-9-0 30.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 39 20-19-0 51.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 34 21-12-1 63.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 79 32-46-1 41.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 17 10-7-0 58.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 7 4-2-1 66.7%
Total 198 96-98-4 49.5%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4 3-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 13 3-10-0 23.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 21 6-15-0 28.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 48 15-31-2 32.6%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.