IMPORTANT: Due to prediction logic refinements we are making, Week 4 NFL predictions are likely to change by mid-week.

NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 45 24-20-1 54.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 81 34-43-4 44.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 77 42-34-1 55.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 22 10-11-1 47.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 44 17-25-2 40.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 22 9-13-0 40.9%
Total 293 137-147-9 48.2%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 17 9-8-0 52.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 40 19-20-1 48.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 227 127-97-3 56.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 207 90-106-11 45.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 194 92-97-5 48.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 84 39-43-2 47.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 18 4-12-2 25.0%
Total 787 380-383-24 49.8%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 30 14-16-0 46.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 58 24-32-2 42.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 69 32-35-2 47.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 90 46-43-1 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 47 23-22-2 51.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 15 9-6-0 60.0%
Total 317 154-156-7 49.7%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 4-8-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 34 16-18-0 47.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 31 20-11-0 64.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 71 27-43-1 38.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 15 9-6-0 60.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 6 4-2-0 66.7%
Total 178 85-91-2 48.3%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4 3-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 12 3-9-0 25.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-14-0 30.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 46 15-29-2 34.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.