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NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 47 25-21-1 54.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 84 35-45-4 43.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 78 43-34-1 55.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 27 13-13-1 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 46 18-25-3 41.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 22 9-13-0 40.9%
Total 306 144-152-10 48.6%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 19 10-9-0 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 43 19-23-1 45.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 236 133-100-3 57.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 217 96-110-11 46.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 203 98-100-5 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 87 41-44-2 48.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-12-2 33.3%
Total 825 403-398-24 50.3%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 32 15-17-0 46.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 60 25-33-2 43.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 73 34-37-2 47.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 95 51-43-1 54.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 48 23-23-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 16 10-6-0 62.5%
Total 332 164-161-7 50.5%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 4-8-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 34 16-18-0 47.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 32 20-12-0 62.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 74 29-44-1 39.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 15 9-6-0 60.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 6 4-2-0 66.7%
Total 182 87-93-2 48.3%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4 3-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 12 3-9-0 25.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-14-0 30.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 46 15-29-2 34.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.