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NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 45 24-20-1 54.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 83 35-44-4 44.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 78 43-34-1 55.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 25 12-12-1 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 46 18-25-3 41.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 22 9-13-0 40.9%
Total 301 142-149-10 48.8%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 18 9-9-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 42 19-22-1 46.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 235 132-100-3 56.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 216 96-109-11 46.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 203 98-100-5 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 86 40-44-2 47.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 19 5-12-2 29.4%
Total 819 399-396-24 50.2%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 32 15-17-0 46.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 59 25-32-2 43.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 73 34-37-2 47.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 93 49-43-1 53.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 48 23-23-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 16 10-6-0 62.5%
Total 329 162-160-7 50.3%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 4-8-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 34 16-18-0 47.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 32 20-12-0 62.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 74 29-44-1 39.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 15 9-6-0 60.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 6 4-2-0 66.7%
Total 182 87-93-2 48.3%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4 3-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 12 3-9-0 25.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-14-0 30.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 46 15-29-2 34.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.