NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 1-0-0 100.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 35 20-14-1 58.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 52 20-30-2 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 63 35-27-1 56.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 18 9-8-1 52.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 36 14-20-2 41.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 13 7-6-0 53.8%
Total 218 106-105-7 50.2%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 13 7-6-0 53.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 33 17-15-1 53.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 183 104-76-3 57.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 181 76-96-9 44.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 158 73-81-4 47.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 71 29-40-2 42.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 15 3-10-2 23.1%
Total 654 309-324-21 48.8%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 5 5-0-0 100.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 27 11-16-0 40.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 50 23-25-2 47.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 63 28-33-2 45.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 77 37-40-0 48.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 37 18-17-2 51.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 10 7-3-0 70.0%
Total 269 129-134-6 49.0%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 4-3-1 57.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 10 4-6-0 40.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 32 16-16-0 50.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 26 15-11-0 57.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 57 23-34-0 40.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 5 3-2-0 60.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 2-0-0 100.0%
Total 140 67-72-1 48.2%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3 3-0-0 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 11 3-8-0 27.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 16 4-12-0 25.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 40 13-26-1 33.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.