NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 45 24-20-1 54.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 72 31-38-3 44.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 77 42-34-1 55.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 19 9-9-1 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 44 17-25-2 40.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 21 9-12-0 42.9%
Total 280 133-139-8 48.9%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 17 9-8-0 52.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 39 18-20-1 47.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 220 124-93-3 57.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 204 88-105-11 45.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 183 87-91-5 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 82 38-42-2 47.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 17 4-11-2 26.7%
Total 762 368-370-24 49.9%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 30 14-16-0 46.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 57 24-31-2 43.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 68 32-34-2 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 88 45-43-0 51.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 47 23-22-2 51.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 14 9-5-0 64.3%
Total 312 153-153-6 50.0%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 4-8-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 33 16-17-0 48.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 30 19-11-0 63.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 70 26-43-1 37.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 15 9-6-0 60.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 6 4-2-0 66.7%
Total 175 83-90-2 48.0%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4 3-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 11 3-8-0 27.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-14-0 30.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 45 15-28-2 34.9%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.