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NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 47 25-21-1 54.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 87 37-46-4 44.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 78 43-34-1 55.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 28 14-13-1 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 46 18-25-3 41.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 25 11-14-0 44.0%
Total 313 149-154-10 49.2%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 19 10-9-0 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 46 19-26-1 42.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 242 135-104-3 56.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 222 99-112-11 46.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 206 100-101-5 49.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 87 41-44-2 48.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-12-2 33.3%
Total 842 410-408-24 50.1%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 33 16-17-0 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 61 25-34-2 42.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 75 36-37-2 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 97 51-45-1 53.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 48 23-23-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 16 10-6-0 62.5%
Total 338 167-164-7 50.5%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 4-8-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 37 18-19-0 48.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 32 20-12-0 62.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 76 31-44-1 41.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 15 9-6-0 60.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 7 4-2-1 66.7%
Total 188 91-94-3 49.2%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4 3-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 12 3-9-0 25.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 21 6-15-0 28.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 47 15-30-2 33.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.