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NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 47 25-21-1 54.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 88 37-47-4 44.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 79 44-34-1 56.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 28 14-13-1 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 46 18-25-3 41.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 25 11-14-0 44.0%
Total 315 150-155-10 49.2%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 19 10-9-0 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 46 19-26-1 42.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 243 135-105-3 56.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 223 99-113-11 46.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 208 101-102-5 49.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 88 41-45-2 47.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-12-2 33.3%
Total 847 411-412-24 49.9%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 33 16-17-0 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 64 27-35-2 43.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 75 36-37-2 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 98 51-46-1 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 48 23-23-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 16 10-6-0 62.5%
Total 342 169-166-7 50.4%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 4-8-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 37 18-19-0 48.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 33 21-12-0 63.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 77 32-44-1 42.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 16 9-7-0 56.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 7 4-2-1 66.7%
Total 191 93-95-3 49.5%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4 3-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 12 3-9-0 25.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 21 6-15-0 28.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 47 15-30-2 33.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.