NFL Power Ratings Model
ATS Picks Highlights
| Time | Rating | Record | % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2007 | 2 star or better | 84-73-5 | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Last Week | 2 star or better | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | +0.9 |
| View ATS picks for upcoming games » | ||||
Money Line Picks Highlights
| Time | Rating | Record | % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 250 Picks | All Picks | 108-142-0 | 43.2% | +15.3 |
| View Money Line picks for upcoming games » | ||||
Game Winner Picks Highlights
| Time | Rating | Record | % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Week | All Picks | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | -- |
| Last 500 Picks | 3 star or better | 351-149-0 | 70.2% | -- |
| Since 2004 | 3 star or better | 413-177-0 | 70.0% | -- |
| View Game Winner picks for upcoming games » | ||||
View ATS Predictions
View Money Line Predictions
View Game Winner Predictions
Methodology
Our Power Ratings Model makes predictions by analyzing past game results. The model takes into account margins of victory, home/away status, opponent strength, and other performance factors, but it is primarily driven by scoring margins.
This model iteratively assesses team performance by examining not only a team's game results and opponents, but also its opponents' opponents, and so on. Because it is focused on predicting victory margins but not final scores, it does not make over/under predictions.
How We Track Picks
Our math model predictions are subject to change up until an hour before game time. These models are designed to process and respond to breaking information, such as recent game results and betting line movement, and new information often alters picks.
All model pick tracking is based on the information and betting odds we have in our system as of one hour before game time. At that point, we "freeze" our model picks for the game in question and report performance on those predictions.