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Team Rankings: Get Smart About Sports

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NFL Similar Games Model

  • Overview
  • ATS Picks (Odds)
    • Pick History
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  • ATS Picks (Points)
    • Pick History
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  • Over/Under Picks
    • Pick History
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  • Money Line Picks
    • Pick History
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  • Game Winner Picks
    • Pick History
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ATS Picks (Odds) Highlights

Time Rating Record % Units
Since Week 5 2 star or better 57-41-3 58.2% +10.8
Last 100 Picks All Picks 55-40-5 57.9% +10.0
This Season 2 star or better 62-47-3 56.9% +9.4
Since 2007 2 star or better 73-63-3 53.7% +3.4
View ATS picks for upcoming games »

ATS Picks (Points) Highlights

Time Rating Record % Units
Last 100 Picks All Picks 52-43-5 54.7% +4.3
Since Week 5 3 star or better 5-2-1 71.4% +2.5
This Season 3 star or better 5-2-1 71.4% +2.5
View ATS picks for upcoming games »

Over/Under Picks Highlights

Time Rating Record % Units
Last Week All Picks 1-0-0 100.0% +0.9
Last 3 Weeks All Picks 4-3-0 57.1% +0.6
View Over/Under picks for upcoming games »

Money Line Picks Highlights

Time Rating Record % Units
Since 2005 3 star or better 31-53-0 36.9% +21.8
View Money Line picks for upcoming games »

Game Winner Picks Highlights

Time Rating Record % Units
Since 2005 3 star or better 284-96-0 74.7% --
Since 2007 3 star or better 148-54-0 73.3% --
This Season 3 star or better 123-45-0 73.2% --
Last 100 Picks 2 star or better 73-27-0 73.0% --
Last 250 Picks 3 star or better 181-69-0 72.4% --
View Game Winner picks for upcoming games »

View ATS (Odds) Predictions
View ATS (Points) Predictions
View Over/Under Predictions
View Money Line Predictions
View Game Winner Predictions

Methodology

Our Similar Games model uses multivariate data algorithms to identify relevant historical game situations. In making predictions, the model examines how statistically similar teams have fared when they played in similar contextual scenarios.

This particular model emphasizes power ratings and the Vegas spread as predictive factors. It was designed for all around performance across all pick types and phases of the season, as opposed to being more specialized for a certain type of pick.

How We Track Picks

Our math model predictions are subject to change up until an hour before game time. These models are designed to process and respond to breaking information, such as recent game results and betting line movement, and new information often alters picks.

All model pick tracking is based on the information and betting odds we have in our system as of one hour before game time. At that point, we "freeze" our model picks for the game in question and report performance on those predictions.

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