Game Information
| Week | Week 3 |
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2009 |
| Time | 4:05 PM |
| Location | Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 421 | NOR | -5.5 | 51.0 | -240 |
| 422 | BUF | +5.5 | +214 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Power Ratings | New Orleans 86% odds to win | |
| New Orleans | Similar Games | New Orleans 72% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOR -5.5 | Power Ratings | New Orleans wins by 16.3 | |
| NOR -5.5 | Similar Games - Odds | New Orleans 56% odds to cover | |
| NOR -5.5 | Similar Games - Pts | New Orleans wins by 5.6 |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 51.0 | Similar Games | 50% odds to go under 51.0 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOR -235 | Power Ratings | Vegas money line is 16% different from model | |
| NOR -235 | Similar Games | Vegas money line is 1% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | NOR | adv | BUF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 32.6 | 16.1 | |
| Points/Play | 0.509 | 0.283 | |
| Avg Score Margin | +11.3 | -4.2 | |
| Yards/Game | 396.9 | 273.9 | |
| Yards/Play | 6.2 | 4.8 | |
| TOP % (net OT) | 51.724% | 46.375% | |
| SOS PR | 28.2 | 27.0 | |
| Offensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | NOR | adv | BUF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 21.3 | 20.4 | |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.325 | 0.300 | |
| Opp Yards/Game | 364.3 | 340.6 | |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.6 | 5.0 | |
| Takeaways/Game | 2.6 | 2.1 | |
| TO Margin/Game | +0.9 | +0.2 | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 51.1 | 53.4 | |
| Defensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | NOR | adv | BUF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 13-3 | 6-10 | |
| vs Division | 4-2 | 2-4 | |
| vs Conference | 11-3 | 4-8 | |
| Streak | W3 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 | |
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 4-6 | |
| Home | 8-2 | 3-4 | |
| Away | 8-1 | 3-6 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | NOR | adv | BUF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 10-9-0 | 8-8-0 | |
| vs Division | 1-5-0 | 3-3-0 | |
| vs Conference | 5-9-0 | 6-6-0 | |
| Streak | W1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 5-5-0 | |
| Home | 5-5-0 | 3-4-0 | |
| Away | 5-4-0 | 5-4-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||