IMPORTANT: Due to prediction logic refinements we are making, Week 5 college football predictions are likely to change by mid-week.

College Football Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 4 1-3-0 25.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 21 8-13-0 38.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 154 72-80-2 47.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 58 34-24-0 58.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 75 37-38-0 49.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 32 18-14-0 56.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 85 34-49-2 41.0%
Total 429 204-221-4 48.0%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 41 16-25-0 39.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 87 41-45-1 47.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 315 157-156-2 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 212 89-117-6 43.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 405 204-195-6 51.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 116 62-49-5 55.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 51 24-25-2 49.0%
Total 1227 593-612-22 49.2%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 28 17-9-2 65.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 56 28-27-1 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 151 71-76-4 48.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 107 45-62-0 42.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 235 116-115-4 50.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 66 23-41-2 35.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 26 15-11-0 57.7%
Total 669 315-341-13 48.0%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 60 32-27-1 54.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 49 20-28-1 41.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 183 89-94-0 48.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 80 36-44-0 45.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 191 99-90-2 52.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 67 31-36-0 46.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 60 31-28-1 52.5%
Total 690 338-347-5 49.3%

Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 76 40-36-0 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 101 58-43-0 57.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 219 110-108-1 50.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 113 67-45-1 59.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 222 117-102-3 53.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 65 22-41-2 34.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 61 21-40-0 34.4%
Total 857 435-415-7 51.2%

Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 70 35-33-2 51.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 64 37-26-1 58.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 137 78-59-0 56.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 75 39-35-1 52.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 77 41-35-1 53.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 38 26-12-0 68.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 28 14-14-0 50.0%
Total 489 270-214-5 55.8%

Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 49 30-17-2 63.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 48 22-26-0 45.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 109 52-55-2 48.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 110 60-46-4 56.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 113 60-51-2 54.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 33 13-20-0 39.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 21 8-13-0 38.1%
Total 483 245-228-10 51.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.