Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Xavier Projected Matchup Analysis

Xavier Power Ratings
vs. North Carolina
  Expected margin = -4.9
  Chance of beating: 29.07%   


vs. Washington St
  Expected margin = -0.8
  Chance of beating: 46%   


vs. Louisville
  Expected margin = -1.4
  Chance of beating: 43%   


vs. Tennessee
  Expected margin = -1.4
  Chance of beating: 43%   


vs. Kansas
  Expected margin = -6.4
  Chance of beating: 24.4%   


vs. Villanova
  Expected margin = 3.5
  Chance of beating: 66%   


vs. Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -2.9
  Chance of beating: 36.4%   


vs. Davidson
  Expected margin = -0.1
  Chance of beating: 49.5%   


vs. Memphis
  Expected margin = -4.8
  Chance of beating: 29.4%   


vs. Michigan St
  Expected margin = 0.2
  Chance of beating: 51%   


vs. Stanford
  Expected margin = -0.9
  Chance of beating: 45.5%   


vs. Texas
  Expected margin = -1.6
  Chance of beating: 42%   


vs. UCLA
  Expected margin = -4.4
  Chance of beating: 30.7%   


vs. Western KY
  Expected margin = 2.9
  Chance of beating: 63.6%   


vs. West Virginia
  Expected margin = 0.1
  Chance of beating: 50.5%