Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Wisconsin Projected Matchup Analysis

Wisconsin Power Ratings
vs. North Carolina
  Expected margin = -2
  Chance of beating: 40%   


vs. Washington St
  Expected margin = 2.1
  Chance of beating: 60.4%   


vs. Louisville
  Expected margin = 1.5
  Chance of beating: 57.5%   


vs. Tennessee
  Expected margin = 1.5
  Chance of beating: 57.5%   


vs. Kansas
  Expected margin = -3.5
  Chance of beating: 34%   


vs. Villanova
  Expected margin = 6.4
  Chance of beating: 75.6%   


vs. Davidson
  Expected margin = 2.8
  Chance of beating: 63.2%   


vs. Memphis
  Expected margin = -1.9
  Chance of beating: 40.5%   


vs. Michigan St
  Expected margin = 3.1
  Chance of beating: 64.4%   


vs. Stanford
  Expected margin = 2
  Chance of beating: 60%   


vs. Texas
  Expected margin = 1.3
  Chance of beating: 56.5%   


vs. UCLA
  Expected margin = -1.5
  Chance of beating: 42.5%   


vs. Western KY
  Expected margin = 5.8
  Chance of beating: 73.85%   


vs. Xavier
  Expected margin = 2.9
  Chance of beating: 63.6%   


vs. West Virginia
  Expected margin = 3
  Chance of beating: 64%