Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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USC Projected Matchup Analysis

USC Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -5.1
  Chance of beating: 28.42%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 11.2
  Chance of beating: 87.2%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 16.9
  Chance of beating: 96.67%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = 3.4
  Chance of beating: 65.6%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = 0.6
  Chance of beating: 53%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = 6.4
  Chance of beating: 75.6%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = -0.7
  Chance of beating: 46.5%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = 7.5
  Chance of beating: 78.63%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = -1
  Chance of beating: 45%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = 7.8
  Chance of beating: 79.45%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = 2.7
  Chance of beating: 62.8%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = 3.6
  Chance of beating: 66.4%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = 0.6
  Chance of beating: 53%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = 3.9
  Chance of beating: 67.6%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = -1.4
  Chance of beating: 43%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 9.8
  Chance of beating: 84.05%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -6.4
  Chance of beating: 24.4%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 8.4
  Chance of beating: 80.9%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = 3.4
  Chance of beating: 65.6%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = 2.8
  Chance of beating: 63.2%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = -0.1
  Chance of beating: 49.5%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = 3.3
  Chance of beating: 65.2%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = 7
  Chance of beating: 77.25%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -2.8
  Chance of beating: 36.8%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = 5.8
  Chance of beating: 73.85%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = 2
  Chance of beating: 60%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = 1.7
  Chance of beating: 58.5%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = 0.2
  Chance of beating: 51%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = -1.5
  Chance of beating: 42.5%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 8.7
  Chance of beating: 81.58%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -5.4
  Chance of beating: 27.45%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 11.5
  Chance of beating: 87.88%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = 2.5
  Chance of beating: 62%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = 2.2
  Chance of beating: 60.8%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = 0.5
  Chance of beating: 52.5%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = 4.2
  Chance of beating: 68.65%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = 0.5
  Chance of beating: 52.5%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.92%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = -1.3
  Chance of beating: 43.5%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 7.9
  Chance of beating: 79.72%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = -0.1
  Chance of beating: 49.5%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = 5.2
  Chance of beating: 71.9%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = 3.3
  Chance of beating: 65.2%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = 3.4
  Chance of beating: 65.6%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = -1.9
  Chance of beating: 40.5%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 10.8
  Chance of beating: 86.3%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -5.1
  Chance of beating: 28.42%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 18.2
  Chance of beating: 97.6%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = 1.9
  Chance of beating: 59.5%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = 1.1
  Chance of beating: 55.5%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = -0.2
  Chance of beating: 49%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = 3
  Chance of beating: 64%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = 1.2
  Chance of beating: 56%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 8.1
  Chance of beating: 80.22%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = 0
  Chance of beating: 50%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = 6.7
  Chance of beating: 76.43%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = 1.3
  Chance of beating: 56.5%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = 2.5
  Chance of beating: 62%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = 0.7
  Chance of beating: 53.5%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = -4
  Chance of beating: 32%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 8.7
  Chance of beating: 81.58%