Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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North Carolina Projected Matchup Analysis

North Carolina Power Ratings
vs. Washington St
  Expected margin = 4.1
  Chance of beating: 68.33%   


vs. Louisville
  Expected margin = 3.5
  Chance of beating: 66%   


vs. Tennessee
  Expected margin = 3.5
  Chance of beating: 66%   


vs. Kansas
  Expected margin = -1.5
  Chance of beating: 42.5%   


vs. Villanova
  Expected margin = 8.4
  Chance of beating: 80.9%   


vs. Wisconsin
  Expected margin = 2
  Chance of beating: 60%   


vs. Davidson
  Expected margin = 4.8
  Chance of beating: 70.6%   


vs. Memphis
  Expected margin = 0.1
  Chance of beating: 50.5%   


vs. Michigan St
  Expected margin = 5.1
  Chance of beating: 71.58%   


vs. Stanford
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. Texas
  Expected margin = 3.3
  Chance of beating: 65.2%   


vs. UCLA
  Expected margin = 0.5
  Chance of beating: 52.5%   


vs. Western KY
  Expected margin = 7.8
  Chance of beating: 79.45%   


vs. Xavier
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.93%   


vs. West Virginia
  Expected margin = 5
  Chance of beating: 71.25%