Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Kentucky Projected Matchup Analysis

Kentucky Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -10.3
  Chance of beating: 14.82%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 6
  Chance of beating: 74.5%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 11.7
  Chance of beating: 88.32%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = -4.3
  Chance of beating: 31.02%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = -1.8
  Chance of beating: 41%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = -4.6
  Chance of beating: 30.05%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = 1.2
  Chance of beating: 56%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = -5.9
  Chance of beating: 25.82%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = 2.3
  Chance of beating: 61.2%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = -6.2
  Chance of beating: 24.95%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = 2.6
  Chance of beating: 62.4%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = -2.5
  Chance of beating: 38%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = -1.6
  Chance of beating: 42%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = -4.6
  Chance of beating: 30.05%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = -1.3
  Chance of beating: 43.5%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = -6.6
  Chance of beating: 23.85%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 4.6
  Chance of beating: 69.95%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -11.6
  Chance of beating: 11.9%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 3.2
  Chance of beating: 64.8%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = -1.8
  Chance of beating: 41%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = -2.4
  Chance of beating: 38.4%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = -5.3
  Chance of beating: 27.77%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = -1.2
  Chance of beating: 44%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = -1.9
  Chance of beating: 40.5%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = 1.8
  Chance of beating: 59%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -8
  Chance of beating: 20%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = 0.6
  Chance of beating: 53%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = -5.2
  Chance of beating: 28.1%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = -3.2
  Chance of beating: 35.2%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = -3.5
  Chance of beating: 34%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = -5
  Chance of beating: 28.75%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = -6.7
  Chance of beating: 23.57%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 3.5
  Chance of beating: 66%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -10.6
  Chance of beating: 14.15%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 6.3
  Chance of beating: 75.33%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = -2.7
  Chance of beating: 37.2%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = -3
  Chance of beating: 36%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = -4.7
  Chance of beating: 29.72%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = -1
  Chance of beating: 45%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = -4.7
  Chance of beating: 29.72%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = -0.3
  Chance of beating: 48.5%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = -6.5
  Chance of beating: 24.13%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 2.7
  Chance of beating: 62.8%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = -5.3
  Chance of beating: 27.77%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = -1.9
  Chance of beating: 40.5%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = -1.8
  Chance of beating: 41%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = -7.1
  Chance of beating: 22.47%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 5.6
  Chance of beating: 73.2%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -10.3
  Chance of beating: 14.82%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 13
  Chance of beating: 91%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = -3.3
  Chance of beating: 34.8%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = -4.1
  Chance of beating: 31.67%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = -5.4
  Chance of beating: 27.45%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = -2.2
  Chance of beating: 39.2%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = -4
  Chance of beating: 32%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 2.9
  Chance of beating: 63.6%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = -5.2
  Chance of beating: 28.1%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = 1.5
  Chance of beating: 57.5%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = -3.9
  Chance of beating: 32.4%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = -2.7
  Chance of beating: 37.2%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = -4.5
  Chance of beating: 30.37%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = -4.3
  Chance of beating: 31.02%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = -9.2
  Chance of beating: 17.3%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 3.5
  Chance of beating: 66%