Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Connecticut Projected Matchup Analysis

Connecticut Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -6.3
  Chance of beating: 24.67%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 10
  Chance of beating: 84.5%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 15.7
  Chance of beating: 95.55%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = -0.3
  Chance of beating: 48.5%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = 2.2
  Chance of beating: 60.8%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = -0.6
  Chance of beating: 47%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = 5.2
  Chance of beating: 71.9%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = -1.9
  Chance of beating: 40.5%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = 6.3
  Chance of beating: 75.33%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = -2.2
  Chance of beating: 39.2%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = 6.6
  Chance of beating: 76.15%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = 1.5
  Chance of beating: 57.5%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = 2.4
  Chance of beating: 61.6%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = -0.6
  Chance of beating: 47%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = 2.7
  Chance of beating: 62.8%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = -2.6
  Chance of beating: 37.6%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 8.6
  Chance of beating: 81.35%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -7.6
  Chance of beating: 21.1%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 7.2
  Chance of beating: 77.8%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = 2.2
  Chance of beating: 60.8%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = 1.6
  Chance of beating: 58%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = -1.3
  Chance of beating: 43.5%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = 2.8
  Chance of beating: 63.2%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = 2.1
  Chance of beating: 60.4%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = 5.8
  Chance of beating: 73.85%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -4
  Chance of beating: 32%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = 4.6
  Chance of beating: 69.95%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = -1.2
  Chance of beating: 44%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = 0.8
  Chance of beating: 54%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = 0.5
  Chance of beating: 52.5%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = -1
  Chance of beating: 45%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = -2.7
  Chance of beating: 37.2%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 7.5
  Chance of beating: 78.63%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -6.6
  Chance of beating: 23.85%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 10.3
  Chance of beating: 85.17%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = 1.3
  Chance of beating: 56.5%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = 1
  Chance of beating: 55%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = -0.7
  Chance of beating: 46.5%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = 3
  Chance of beating: 64%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = -0.7
  Chance of beating: 46.5%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = 3.7
  Chance of beating: 66.8%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = -2.5
  Chance of beating: 38%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 6.7
  Chance of beating: 76.42%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = -1.3
  Chance of beating: 43.5%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = 2.1
  Chance of beating: 60.4%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = 2.2
  Chance of beating: 60.8%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = -3.1
  Chance of beating: 35.6%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 9.6
  Chance of beating: 83.6%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -6.3
  Chance of beating: 24.67%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 17
  Chance of beating: 96.75%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = 0.7
  Chance of beating: 53.5%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = -0.1
  Chance of beating: 49.5%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = -1.4
  Chance of beating: 43%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = 1.8
  Chance of beating: 59%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 6.9
  Chance of beating: 76.97%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = -1.2
  Chance of beating: 44%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = 5.5
  Chance of beating: 72.88%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = 0.1
  Chance of beating: 50.5%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = 1.3
  Chance of beating: 56.5%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = -0.5
  Chance of beating: 47.5%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = -0.3
  Chance of beating: 48.5%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = -5.2
  Chance of beating: 28.1%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 7.5
  Chance of beating: 78.63%