Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Stanford Projected Matchup Analysis

Stanford Power Ratings
vs. North Carolina
  Expected margin = -4
  Chance of beating: 32%   


vs. Washington St
  Expected margin = 0.1
  Chance of beating: 50.5%   


vs. Louisville
  Expected margin = -0.5
  Chance of beating: 47.5%   


vs. Tennessee
  Expected margin = -0.5
  Chance of beating: 47.5%   


vs. Kansas
  Expected margin = -5.5
  Chance of beating: 27.13%   


vs. Villanova
  Expected margin = 4.4
  Chance of beating: 69.3%   


vs. Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -2
  Chance of beating: 40%   


vs. Davidson
  Expected margin = 0.8
  Chance of beating: 54%   


vs. Memphis
  Expected margin = -3.9
  Chance of beating: 32.4%   


vs. Michigan St
  Expected margin = 1.1
  Chance of beating: 55.5%   


vs. Texas
  Expected margin = -0.7
  Chance of beating: 46.5%   


vs. UCLA
  Expected margin = -3.5
  Chance of beating: 34%   


vs. Western KY
  Expected margin = 3.8
  Chance of beating: 67.2%   


vs. Xavier
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%   


vs. West Virginia
  Expected margin = 1
  Chance of beating: 55%