Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Memphis Projected Matchup Analysis

Memphis Power Ratings
vs. North Carolina
  Expected margin = -0.1
  Chance of beating: 49.5%   


vs. Washington St
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. Louisville
  Expected margin = 3.4
  Chance of beating: 65.6%   


vs. Tennessee
  Expected margin = 3.4
  Chance of beating: 65.6%   


vs. Kansas
  Expected margin = -1.6
  Chance of beating: 42%   


vs. Villanova
  Expected margin = 8.3
  Chance of beating: 80.68%   


vs. Wisconsin
  Expected margin = 1.9
  Chance of beating: 59.5%   


vs. Davidson
  Expected margin = 4.7
  Chance of beating: 70.27%   


vs. Michigan St
  Expected margin = 5
  Chance of beating: 71.25%   


vs. Stanford
  Expected margin = 3.9
  Chance of beating: 67.6%   


vs. Texas
  Expected margin = 3.2
  Chance of beating: 64.8%   


vs. UCLA
  Expected margin = 0.4
  Chance of beating: 52%   


vs. Western KY
  Expected margin = 7.7
  Chance of beating: 79.17%   


vs. Xavier
  Expected margin = 4.8
  Chance of beating: 70.6%   


vs. West Virginia
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.92%