Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Louisville Projected Matchup Analysis

Louisville Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -4.1
  Chance of beating: 31.67%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 12.2
  Chance of beating: 89.4%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 17.9
  Chance of beating: 97.42%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = 1.9
  Chance of beating: 59.5%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = 4.4
  Chance of beating: 69.3%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = 1.6
  Chance of beating: 58%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = 7.4
  Chance of beating: 78.35%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = 0.3
  Chance of beating: 51.5%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = 8.5
  Chance of beating: 81.13%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = 8.8
  Chance of beating: 81.8%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = 3.7
  Chance of beating: 66.8%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = 4.6
  Chance of beating: 69.95%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = 1.6
  Chance of beating: 58%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.92%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = -0.4
  Chance of beating: 48%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 10.8
  Chance of beating: 86.3%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -5.4
  Chance of beating: 27.45%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 9.4
  Chance of beating: 83.15%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = 4.4
  Chance of beating: 69.3%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = 3.8
  Chance of beating: 67.2%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = 5
  Chance of beating: 71.25%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = 4.3
  Chance of beating: 68.97%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = 8
  Chance of beating: 80%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -1.8
  Chance of beating: 41%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = 6.8
  Chance of beating: 76.7%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = 1
  Chance of beating: 55%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = 3
  Chance of beating: 64%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = 2.7
  Chance of beating: 62.8%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = 1.2
  Chance of beating: 56%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = -0.5
  Chance of beating: 47.5%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 9.7
  Chance of beating: 83.83%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -4.4
  Chance of beating: 30.7%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 12.5
  Chance of beating: 90%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = 3.5
  Chance of beating: 66%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = 3.2
  Chance of beating: 64.8%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = 1.5
  Chance of beating: 57.5%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = 5.2
  Chance of beating: 71.9%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = 1.5
  Chance of beating: 57.5%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = 5.9
  Chance of beating: 74.17%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = -0.3
  Chance of beating: 48.5%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 8.9
  Chance of beating: 82.02%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = 6.2
  Chance of beating: 75.05%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = 4.3
  Chance of beating: 68.97%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = 4.4
  Chance of beating: 69.3%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = -0.9
  Chance of beating: 45.5%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 11.8
  Chance of beating: 88.55%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -4.1
  Chance of beating: 31.67%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 19.2
  Chance of beating: 98.1%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = 2.9
  Chance of beating: 63.6%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = 2.1
  Chance of beating: 60.4%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = 0.8
  Chance of beating: 54%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = 2.2
  Chance of beating: 60.8%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 9.1
  Chance of beating: 82.47%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = 1
  Chance of beating: 55%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = 7.7
  Chance of beating: 79.18%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = 2.3
  Chance of beating: 61.2%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = 3.5
  Chance of beating: 66%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = 1.7
  Chance of beating: 58.5%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = 1.9
  Chance of beating: 59.5%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = -3
  Chance of beating: 36%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 9.7
  Chance of beating: 83.83%