Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Louisville Projected Matchup Analysis

Louisville Power Ratings
vs. North Carolina
  Expected margin = -3.5
  Chance of beating: 34%   


vs. Washington St
  Expected margin = 0.6
  Chance of beating: 53%   


vs. Tennessee
  Expected margin = 0
  Chance of beating: 50%   


vs. Kansas
  Expected margin = -5
  Chance of beating: 28.75%   


vs. Villanova
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.93%   


vs. Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -1.5
  Chance of beating: 42.5%   


vs. Davidson
  Expected margin = 1.3
  Chance of beating: 56.5%   


vs. Memphis
  Expected margin = -3.4
  Chance of beating: 34.4%   


vs. Michigan St
  Expected margin = 1.6
  Chance of beating: 58%   


vs. Stanford
  Expected margin = 0.5
  Chance of beating: 52.5%   


vs. Texas
  Expected margin = -0.2
  Chance of beating: 49%   


vs. UCLA
  Expected margin = -3
  Chance of beating: 36%   


vs. Western KY
  Expected margin = 4.3
  Chance of beating: 68.97%   


vs. Xavier
  Expected margin = 1.4
  Chance of beating: 57%   


vs. West Virginia
  Expected margin = 1.5
  Chance of beating: 57.5%